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Search: Posts Made By: myrrdin
Forum: Commodities May 15th, 2022, 03:53 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Regarding grains & beans I am currently using the...

Regarding grains & beans I am currently using the following resources:

The Hightower Report (Fundamentals),
MRCI (Seasonals),
Wellenreiter (COT).

Wellenreiter is a German service, which I...
Forum: Commodities March 9th, 2022, 01:35 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
In many years, I like trading the RB-HO spread at...

In many years, I like trading the RB-HO spread at this time of the year. Looking at the huge moves yesterday and today, I am glad I do not hold a position.

Currently, the only position I hold in...
Forum: Commodities March 8th, 2022, 04:28 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I stay away from speculation if the war in...

I stay away from speculation if the war in Ukraine will end today via a miracle or will stay for a very long time. I am unable to make a qualified guess.

Best regards, Myrrdin
Forum: Commodities March 8th, 2022, 02:51 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I looked at the WZ22-WH23 again. A reason...

I looked at the WZ22-WH23 again.

A reason for the March contract being much cheaper could be the fact that the crop of the Southern Hemisphere will enter the market after expiration of the...
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 01:21 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Yes, thank you. If my interpretation is correct,...

Yes, thank you. If my interpretation is correct, we have reached an extreme value of the spread.

Best regards, Myrrdin
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2022, 12:19 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
No - sorry. I am following this discussion, and I...

No - sorry. I am following this discussion, and I had a look at the spread.

Unfortunately, MRCI currently does not show the December spreads to compare the spread with former years.

I consider...
Forum: Commodities October 7th, 2021, 02:22 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
The spread ON-CN (Oats - Corn, July contracts)...

The spread ON-CN (Oats - Corn, July contracts) has never been as high as currently at this time of the year since 1984. (I do not have older data.) July Oats is more expensive than July Corn.

The...
Forum: Commodities September 23rd, 2021, 10:21 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I agree, downwards potential should be limited,...

I agree, downwards potential should be limited, and seasonal charts show a moderate upwards move after early October. But these upwards moves were limited in recent years.

Best regards, Myrrdin
Forum: Commodities September 23rd, 2021, 08:16 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
The only position I hold in the grains is the...

The only position I hold in the grains is the WN22-WN23 spread. I still see significant room for an upwards move (Large Australian crop expected, large plantings in the US expected).

Best regards,...
Forum: Commodities August 11th, 2021, 09:40 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I liquidated the position at about the entry...

I liquidated the position at about the entry price before the USDA report this week. In my opinion, there is some downside risk for corn, as weather premium might be taken out of the corn price.

I...
Forum: Commodities August 7th, 2021, 01:26 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
The spread C-KW followed the seasonal chart very...

The spread C-KW followed the seasonal chart very nicely in recent months. The seasonal chart suggests the spread turning upwards for the next couple of months.

There are (understandable) rumors...
Forum: Commodities July 24th, 2021, 12:26 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
In recent weeks, the WN22-WN23 was doing what I...

In recent weeks, the WN22-WN23 was doing what I expected it to do - grinding lower. It should move further into this direction for the next couple of months, assuming that seeding conditions in the...
Forum: Commodities July 2nd, 2021, 01:18 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Thank you ! All of my knowledge is from...

Thank you !

All of my knowledge is from publicly available literature which is accessible for retail traders. Following this literature over many years - in my case 15 - 20 years - and drawing the...
Forum: Commodities June 18th, 2021, 02:04 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Today is the first day when the bid/ask spread...

Today is the first day when the bid/ask spread for the WN23 is permanently acceptable, approx. 1 c. In recent months this spread was 8 - 10 c. Looks like a market maker is taking care of the future...
Forum: Commodities June 9th, 2021, 03:55 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
It is interesting to note that the WN21-WN22 now...

It is interesting to note that the WN21-WN22 now trades at -18 c. This suggests that wheat is not considered to be extremely tight in 21/22.

Whereas the WN22-WN23 still trades between 40 and 50 c,...
Forum: Commodities May 25th, 2021, 09:15 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Whereas the WN23-WN22 might be under pressure...

Whereas the WN23-WN22 might be under pressure short-time because of the worse than expected crop ratings, the following message might help in the long run: "Australia looks set for a second...
Forum: Commodities May 24th, 2021, 02:41 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
Thanks a lot for your contributions - it is good...

Thanks a lot for your contributions - it is good to see that there are others interested in the grain markets.

I fully agree that this trade is only interesting long term. It is my intention to...
Forum: Commodities May 23rd, 2021, 02:13 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I understand that the WN21-WN22 spread is high...

I understand that the WN21-WN22 spread is high because of the current tight supply. And I do not hold any position in the WN21 contract.

In my opinion, it is interesting to note that the WN22-WN23...
Forum: Commodities May 22nd, 2021, 02:20 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I would be interested to learn about your...

I would be interested to learn about your findings, but I doubt that it is possible to trade these flies.

The problem is that the WN24 is not yet traded. CME states for the Chicago wheat contract:...
Forum: Commodities May 21st, 2021, 10:38 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
With regard to the above-mentioned spread, it is...

With regard to the above-mentioned spread, it is interesting to note that the WN21-WN22 notes at approx. 13, whereas the WN22-WN23, which will not be in the ground until fall, notes at approx. 47.
...
Forum: Commodities May 3rd, 2021, 10:58 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I started building a position in the short...

I started building a position in the short WN22-WN23 today just above 40 c.

This wheat spread moved above 50 c only 4 times since 1983, only once there was a strong up move before the end of the...
Forum: Commodities April 30th, 2021, 01:40 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I have no idea why this happens. But: If you...

I have no idea why this happens.

But: If you have a look at the longterm charts (1983 - 2021), you see that the Nov-Jan was above 20c 1 x, the Jan-Mar 7 x, and the Mar - May 6 x. Although the...
Forum: Commodities January 14th, 2021, 05:12 AM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
I have been asked about educational materials...

I have been asked about educational materials regarding grains & beans.

I get a lot of information from the daily Hightower Report. They write a lot about supply and demand, discuss various...
Forum: Commodities November 25th, 2020, 12:51 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
To my European friends: Tomorrow is Thanksgiving...

To my European friends: Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US, and there will be no trading of Grains, Beans and Meats.

To my American friends: Happy Thanksgiving !

Best regards, Myrrdin
Forum: Commodities October 25th, 2020, 12:03 PM
Replies: 294
Views: 69,965
Posted By myrrdin
For the European traders: Trading hours in...

For the European traders:

Trading hours in the US begin 1 hour earlier for 1 week because of the change to Winter Time in Europe. Eg. stock market in New York will open at 2.30 pm Central European...
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