Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
All of my knowledge is from publicly available literature which is accessible for retail traders. Following this literature over many years - in my case 15 - 20 years - and drawing the right conclusions myself does indeed yield some knowledge. Everybody can achieve this knowledge - but you have to stay with this topic for a long time. By the way, my professional background is mechanical engineering, and I received my PhD in fluid mechanics.
Currently, I do not write a lot about Grains & Beans. The reason is simple: We are in the middle of a weather market. And as an expert in fluid mechanics, I am aware of the difficulty forecasting the weather for a couple of weeks or months.
I like the saying of a large trader - unfortunately I do not remember the name: "It is important to know when to trade and when to go fishing." Well, I do not go fishing, but there are many other commodities that can be traded.
In recent weeks, the WN22-WN23 was doing what I expected it to do - grinding lower. It should move further into this direction for the next couple of months, assuming that seeding conditions in the Northern Hemisphere are ok.
I am surprised about the volume of the WN23 still being extremely low at 5 - 10 futures per day after the expiry of the WN21. I had expected volume to pick up after the expiry of the WN21 because of spread trading in the WN22-WN23, which now is the first spread of New Crop contracts. Volume of the WN22 is approx. 500 - 600.
The spread C-KW followed the seasonal chart very nicely in recent months. The seasonal chart suggests the spread turning upwards for the next couple of months.
There are (understandable) rumors that a lot of wheat will be planted in Kansas this fall. According to a report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) from early August the Australian wheat crop will be 13 % above the 10 years average. Corn price seems to be well-supported.
It is my assumption that the C-KW spread will turn around to move upwards some time between now and September.
I entered a first position of the July 2022 contracts at the end of last week.
I liquidated the position at about the entry price before the USDA report this week. In my opinion, there is some downside risk for corn, as weather premium might be taken out of the corn price.
Agree with this - I didn't comment before because I haven't run purely seasonal models before, but fundamentally wheat looks like it could be in shorter supply than corn to me.
EDIT: perhaps not fundamentally shorter supply in the long term, but in the short term I feel wheat could go against the seasonal trend with the current supply picture.
The only position I hold in the grains is the WN22-WN23 spread. I still see significant room for an upwards move (Large Australian crop expected, large plantings in the US expected).
