Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire & Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES
Posts: 14 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 15 given,
I found the same thing as you, the MACD gives too many signals and the RSI gives more accurate ones. Where I got murdered was if the market's in a narrow sideways band which the ES was in two nights consecutively last week. Plenty of divergence signals, no breakouts & plenty of losses. I've decided that if I see narrow horizontal bollingers again (2 points) I'm pulling the sheets over my head. Where I find the system good is in a normal up & down market (say a 4 point range). You're right, in a a strong impulsing market it an get ugly too. I suppose the answer may be to watch it when the bars are hugging one of the bollinger bands.
The following user says Thank You to dmane for this post:
I tried an auto-trade service they offered over a year ago. I wasn't mad that it lost money -- I was mad that it didn't follow its own trading plan. The system was supposed to be a scalper, but would only take one trade a day (that's great if its a super high probability trade). Then it would lose on the trade. It would stick around in losing trades far too long. It was losing $2 for every $1 made and winning on just under 50% of the trades.
As a rule now, after this and a few other experiences, I never sign up for a service that requires up-front money. (In this case it was over $1,000 "set-up" fee + a monthly fee. There are plenty of other systems you can lease for hundreds of dollars per month with no nasty up-front fee.
The actual results were so materially different than the webinar presentation that I can agree with a previous poster: "Southern Fried Snake Oil".
The following 3 users say Thank You to DCtrader for this post:
I believe that all the trading education outfits out there are business solely geared to make profits for their owners. These educators are teaching because they can't make a living trading. I did programming work for one of these outfits for 2 years, so I knew the internals of that particular education service.
Why would you want to spend 10 hour days in a trading room, and doing sales, and preparing presentations, doing back end customer related work, etc. etc. for a small education business, if you can spend a few hours a day trading and making a good income? When you ask them, they will say, "I do this because I love teaching", That is pure bull !!!, they do it because it's easier for them to make a living that way then for them to make a living trading.
The following 6 users say Thank You to monpere for this post:
Curious your conclusion regarding the MACD. I have always understood that a broken divergence may be a strong signal that we are in a trending market. The first broken signal should alert you to this possibility.
I am not a discretionary trader, I am a mechanical trader, I take every signal because I don't know which signal will work, and which will not. I rely on my system's expectancy to get me profitable. I take one and only one setup when ever it appears, and play with a 1:3 risk/reward ratio every time, no matter what the market is doing. I've tried the discretionary approach, but I can't handle it psychologically, I hate when I think a setup should work and it does not, and hate it even more when I skip a setup because I think it should not work, but it does. Although, I am to the point now where, when the market is moving a certain way, I can pretty much tell that the next 2 or 3 trades are probably gonna be losers, but if I make the discretionary decision not to take them, then I render my system's expectancy meaningless.
So, now I don't have to cherry pick, because even with less then 50% win ratio, I am still profitable because I win 3R on every winner and only lose 1R on every loser, and the system gives 15 to 20 trades every day. I don't know why people scalp with 1:1 or even 2:1 or even lesser risk/reward ratios, you pretty much have to be right all the time to make money that way.
The following 2 users say Thank You to monpere for this post:
Sorry to hear about these negative Felton experiences . Im a student of Rogers but dont trade his method . Using his method requires a lot of subjective decision making even though its sometimes initially sold as "easy" or at least worded in advertising to sound easy , to new would be traders anyway . Divergence is an art and if you ask Roger he will agree with that . After I was in his room for awhile I saw that he does read into price first and play divergences second , he wants a reason to trade .
Havent heard much talk about hidden divergence or some of the trending divergence signals that he uses like lump trades and such . Rogers a member here , maybe we can hit him up and get some insight from him . Hes a knowledable trader but also a vendor in a savage field filled with emotions so its easy to peg him a charlatan , but hes not .
The following 3 users say Thank You to Eric j for this post:
I cannot agree with you more. On the other hand there are some free rooms and free education. Education is good enough to keep me going back every day. Educator in the room helped me enough to keep me going. Now after 4 years of trading my last 8 months has been in the green.
So not everyone the same there are some honest people but not a lot.
The following 3 users say Thank You to tickvix for this post:
I have said this so many times in other threads, but no one listens. The problem lies in that no one whats to take the time to learn on their own which takes time, dedication and sacrifice. There is no easy way to become profitable in this business. The time they spend looking for a educator could be utilized in learning the markets themselves. I took a course with Emini Trading Strategies when I started out and it was throwing good money after bad. Others should listen to those who have made this mistake, but if they don't then they have to learn the hard way.
The following 5 users say Thank You to itrade2win for this post:
I very much disagree with your point. To say thay no one would take time to learn on thier own is just not true. That would state that you did not take time to learn on your own, or me, or any one in this forum. Very broad statment. Trading is hard and hence we look for help. We step into this profession because we motivated and looking for change and there are financial rewards that would come when one can make tradin work. In many cases trading has been compared to such professions as doctor, lawyer, or an accountant. The reason because when one becomes a professional trader one can make as much, or more then any doctor, or lawyer. Al Brooks is a doctor.. Right!!!
Have you ever seen a doctor who has not graduated from the medical school, or would you like to seek an advise from a lawyer who never attended a Law School.
Trading like any other profession is in need of education, dedication. And if we are lucky enough we might find a good honest mentor who would direct us in the correct path. Hence we look and try.
In the age of Internet its easy to find people, but can they teach is all different story. Hence we get into wishes cycle try this and try that.
I truly think educators are important in this business and it is up to us to decide who is who and if they are capable of helping us to succeed.
The following 4 users say Thank You to tickvix for this post: