Favorite Futures: Futures - bonds, currencies, index
Posts: 288 since Oct 2010
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No!! It isn't! You have NO idea of whether it breaks 50/50 or not. Your 9 trades are statistically worthless. I could run a 9 trade system and go long or short at random - if I did that 100 times, 30 of the runs would make more money than you have. What does that tell you?
Errr, why would you take baby steps if you're so utterly sure you are now profitable?
By the way, please please don't suddenly decide to increase your contracts until you're up to a few hundred trades.
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Seriously, between imagination and will, the imagination will always win. So it makes sense to take baby steps to build the necessary confidence to trade without too much thinking even though you are "utterly sure you are now profitable".
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VERY TRUE, You can either have high win-rate for a point, or low win-rate with higher gains per win.
Wanted to indicate the material I have read in the last 3 months that has helped me understand M.P:
James Dalton-markets in profile James dalton- Mind over markets James Dalton- Beyond the rules, advanced course P. Steidlemayer- On markets, 2nd edition Frank Butera- balance-trader course Michael jardin - One trade a Day CBOT- six part training course(READ THREE TIMES)
Dear Xeno, You may be absolutely right!! Then again, I read once that the bumble bee's design should not allow it to fly, guess it doesn't know it...LOL
But seriously, for the past 6 years I have bought and studied every "squiggly" line indicator, course, method, system out there with no better trading results than a flip of a coin.
Statistics is a branch of mathamatics, and although the market participants will not bestow a perfect BELL-CURVE graphic when it comes to market profile. I truly believe that it DOES OFFER AN EDGE. And to me;
An edge is being able to see something that someone else can't easily see.
I hope at least you consider adding market profile to your trading tool box if your performance is still not where you wish it were.
Albert Einstein was quoted saying "Not everything that can be counted counts, Not everything that counts can be counted"
Thanks for your input, it is really, really appreciated. I learn from you and everyone else who contributes to this collective think-tank called BIG MIKE's.
Last edited by bobbyacim; April 12th, 2011 at 07:34 PM.
That's a lot of material to digest. In my opinion, reading too much too fast can become a nuisance. There are many years of study, observation and practice in the books you mentionned. I have not yet read any of Dalton's books. The only info i got about MP was took at various web sites and a one month course i took in 2009. The rest of the time has been passed trading, observing and taking notes. The biggest task is to internalize it and i knew from the beginning i could only achieve it one concept at a time. Before trying to digest all of it by buying every possible books then i would instead recommend you take only one piece of info for a certain period of time, say 2 or 3 months and take notes, screen captures and ask questions about it to your instructor. You'll see that after a certain time, you'll develop an inquisitive mind that will serve you more than simply reading a book in one go.
As a rule of thumb, if i read sixty minutes about a given concept then i want to practice and observe thirty times that period before reading any more material and prepare some questions/answers around that theme. It takes time.
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Do you guys use one of the market profile tools like I/RT, Market Delta, etc.? What do you think of the market profile-ish indicators, like gomi's market profile indy, and dValueArea indy, which are based on volume at price, but do not use TPO's? I use dValueArea, and have developed a couple of setups using it, but I've never been able to observe price bouncing of the VAH/VAL consistently, or high/low volume nodes consistently, through all the historical data I've looked at, so I just dismissed it (I only looked at it on ETF's). What are the main things you guys personally look for when using Market Profile?
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