There may be some confusion, and maybe I am at fault.
I try to keep my risk to reward ratio positive or at least to "1" until I can achieve a better than 70% win ratio
Currently I risk 1 point on the ES (4 ticks) for 1 point win on one contract and 2nd contract is a runner.
Trading is a game of statistics, I am finding that the runner is what allows me to achieve profitability in the long term.
Market-Profile analysis has made the difference for me and I can proudly say, is finally putting me in the winners circle!!!!!
The following user says Thank You to bobbyacim for this post:
As far as I am concerned, you are a legend on this forum. I have read all your posts and have learned much!
Never though I would be posting winning trades. It really is intoxicating to be able to make money from the comfort of my home....WOW!!!
Market profile is really an incredable tool because it is based on math and price action. I consider it a leading indicator because with it you can judge where the next turn might be. For me only fib levels and market profile can do that kind of projection ahead.
No more sqiggly line indicators for descision making for me, they will now only be used as "confirmation". I really like the power of statistical math and standard deviation equation backing me when I make a trading decision, although it is a bitch to learn!!!!
Some people are charging thousands$$ for courses. I just got lucky I stumpled onto Reza's bootcamp video.
Take care and God bless...
Last edited by bobbyacim; April 6th, 2011 at 09:21 PM.
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobbyacim for this post:
Took two winning trades last nite on the 6e for $300 . I studied the the prior market profile and saw a huge upward distribution with range breakout to the upside and CLOSE was at the directional extreme, many minus development areas along the unfair high of the move up. When the nite session opened, the Initial balance rotated backed down into prior's profile minus developemnt, which is usually a safer place to take a trade, you want as much minus development between your entry and stoploss. Went long when price bounced out of the current value area for a long; first target was current POC, second target was current Value area high, both targets reached.
Steidlmayer called market profile a decision assit tool NOT A TRADING SYSTEM and I tend to agree. That is why I have my trade setup on the right side of the market profile screen as the action is going on. My confirmaton for entry signal comes from my overbought/oversold Stoch and my exit is the opposite edge of a keltner band.
Since keltner calcs. the average of a movement, I do not want to push my luck staying in a move after it has exceeded its average range as indicated by the keltner band.
Last edited by bobbyacim; April 8th, 2011 at 06:41 PM.
I want to expand on an observation I have been formulating ever since my trading has taken a positive turn. I sincerely hope you can sense the humble tone in which it is said. Why do I need to qualify it?
Because in my old thread “ten thousand in education and still not profitable” I felt I was being bashed, insulted, ridiculed and dismissed by the majority just because I was musing and pointing out some very important aspects of the Trading Education industry and really questioning if any of this so-called training had resulted in anyone at all achieving profitability long term.
I even got a lashing from Big Mike, reprimanding me for not “listening to people who were trying to help me” Well, my response to that statement is, after over 9000 views, no one has still been able to come forward on this forum with a track record of trading success for more than a few months. What I have been offered by these same people is YET another new indicator, another new Method, etc. It seems to me Mike that for someone to “help you” they should have helped themselves first, don’t you think?
However, what over 9000 views tell me is that my initial questioning and inquiry resonated with a lot of people on this forum regardless of how dismissive they reacted.
In conclusion, it looks to me that there are a lot of unprofitable, frustrated traders out here that feel threatened if someone comes along and rattles their belief baseline that the key to trading success is more education, more indicators, better settings, more timeframes, yet another squiggly line, etc ,etc.
I was one of them for the past six years! Wasting years and money chasing yet another new indicator, a better indicator, more, more, more of the same, is just evolutionary.
What Peter Steidlmayer created in market profile analysis was revolutionary! Progressive People recognized its value right away and as the demand grew, Peter quit trading and started Market Logic School.
And yet for all the practitioners and devotees of price action on this forum how have been ignored and ridiculed as I have, take comfort, YOU WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG!
Fore, Market Profile IS PRICE ACTION within an underlying statistical model that helps you anticipate where the price is in relationship to the whole market itself.
That is why it is so powerful.
I would like to post the whole Market profile manual put out by CBOT in the 90's,It is a six -part study guide, I have it in PDF format and just finished reading it for the third time. I think it will help lay down the foundation of market Profile analysis for does who are ready to move on to a NEW approach to trading.
For how to use it in a practical trading environment you will have to take a study course on that.
I did an intensive market profile bootcamp Video course by profiletraders.com twice in order to grasp the techniques on how to use market profile profitably
The following user says Thank You to bobbyacim for this post:
I agree with some of what you said. But, I studied MP and read a bit for a few months and honestly, after following a "Master" MP trader for several weeks, I guess I just don't get it. To me it is as effective as a 'bunch of squiggley lines" etc.. Why do you see so much value in it for setups or whatever? A tick charge scrunched together will show you the same thing w/ an order book DOM no?
The following user says Thank You to bluemele for this post:
If you are REAL GOOD, YES! a Candlestick/bar chart can show you what Market Profile shows, your chart may have to encompass several weeks of data and a variety of support resistance lines and narrowing channels, etc. however, for some of us who do not have another 5 years to get to that advanced level of discernment before reaching profitability. Market profile is the way! Yes it is very very difficult to learn, I have spent 10 hours a day for the last 3 months to really grasp the format, nuances and details of seeing price action in this new way. But is is already producing fruit!
So for me another few years doing what everyone else is doing , or a breakthu in a few months, with much effort. You do the math!
I would like to post an example between a price chart view and a market profile view of the exact same trend analysis, how ever I don't know yet how to upload snapshots, I only know to place links to snapshots.
I've always been intrigued by market profile. I don't know how much time you spent on the other methods you tried before, but 10 hours a day for several months seems significant. Did you spend that much time on any of the previous methods you looked at? Do you attribute your breakthrough to the amount of time and effort you devoted to learning the market profile system? or do you think it is just that Market Profile itself is just superior to all the other methods you tried before?
The following user says Thank You to monpere for this post:
Market Profile seems superior to the conventional technical indicators we have all been using for so long because for example:
I can see right away if the market is rotating inside of fair value area(consolidating)or if is trending. This alone is something that takes years for some to master. And if it is in consolidation,(ranging) I do not want to use a trending strategy here.
Just imagine you don't zoom out enough on your pricebar chart to see, or plot trendlines far enought back or don't see enought details to notice the market is ranging and at the very bottom of the range,
YOU GO LONG because some stupid Stochastics or macd indicated that the market was now oversold! and boom, you lose!!!
Also Market Profile concentrates much on the Open relative to the prevous session. Where as most of the conventional technicals calculate on high-low and close.
As a result of seeing the open as much more significent, Market Profile lends itself very well to opening range breakout strategies. You know, One trade and your done for the day approach
And lastly, I dont pull the trigger on every dip, or touch, or cross of every two-bit squiggly line indicator that comes along. Less trading, less chance to push my luck!
Now, I know better, I will look at my stoch, or MACD, to confirm or give me that extra bit of confidence to take the trade only.
Last edited by bobbyacim; April 10th, 2011 at 06:40 PM.
To be honest with you I knew of market profile a few years back, but like many on this forum, I found it difficult to comprehend- to say the least!
Then... I was ready to give up, with a little help from the hundreds of bashers on THIS forum; see "TEN THOUSAND AND STILL NOT PROFITABLE" and yes, for those bashers-my spelling has improved!
I only re-visted Market Profile by shear state of exasperation. But it seems to have given me the break-through I needed to get FIRED-UP AGAIN about trading.
Incidently, I not only read books, did Reza's market profile boot-camp, but I joined his live trading room, where he takes real trades using market profile alone (I still need some techincals for confirmation)and shows the superdom to prove it.
Watching this trading master's master make consistant profits really shattered my original beliefs, that no one could make money at this consistantly...
Last edited by bobbyacim; April 10th, 2011 at 07:13 PM.