And if they did, I'm sure the pilots might say something thats not very polite.
However with trading live money, you prefer I toss caution to the wind and integrate whatever any Joe-blow trader says to my repertoire of trading knowledge, how dandy......
I agree with several reasonable people here that it might give credibility to some serious advice despensed if there was a bench-mark catagory for someone who is actually profitable at this game, hey some of us are starting to ask this of vendors. Why not of supposed succesful traders who are dispensing tactical advice on trading.
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No!! I'm telling you to educate yourself - you know, from books, articles, the web etc and get to the stage where you can decide for yourself what is decent advice and what isn't. You can decide whether to ignore that, and only really value advice from proven traders, when trading with your live money, but tell me, who's ten thousand down in this process already? I assume a good chunk of that money was paid to 'proven' traders...
My education cost me my time and effort, and about £350 in literature. All that time I had no problem working out what was good and bad advice on web forums. Let's face it, most good advice about trading is already online, and has extensive threads backing it up. As Mike said, put the time in and read some of those threads. I didn't even need to read to not buy systems. It's common sense!! You want to hear it all from proven traders?? Buy Market Wizards. It's all in there. Apart from the holy grail system.
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Anybody that has been around a while also will share with you that what worked 6 months ago, or even 2 years ago, doesn't still work. That is especially true of mechanical system whether it be a structural change @ CME or just a cyclical change.
A lot will disagree, but the key is to be a profitable trader for the long term. Some will say, a forward test is the only way to go, etc.. Yah, until it proves it isn't viable. You can spend the rest of your life doing that!
That is why of course probabilities makes sense, but you have to build it yourself because WHEN (not if) conditions change, then you will no how to adapt and overcome!
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Except for a very few ultra simple mechanical systems nearly every mechanical system will need to be reoptimized intelligently (i.e. OOS walk forward process) periodically. How often, how much, and what fitness function you should be using is the art of mechanical trading (yes there is art in mechanical trading). The problem with most (but not all) vendors selling a mechanical system is that they don't teach you the hard part (the occasional re-optimization). And if you know how to reoptimize a system intelligently you are already sophisticated enough to design your own system - better. I will reiterate what Mike has said on these forums. Strictly mechanical trading is far far harder than discretionary trading and you still need to know how to trade discretionarily! That being said if you can't consistently recreate and analyse your discretionary setups you have no chance is gaining an edge in the market.
One interesting experience I had early in my trading career was watching (live) a successful discretionary trader consistently beat the EUR/USD over a two month period. Interestingly enough even though this trader explained to me his reasoning for each trade I did not have the sophistication to implement it myself. This reminded me of the experience of watching many John Petruci videos (a famous and brilliant guitarist) when I was younger. Watching the videos was fun but ultimately didn't make me a better guitarist/bassist. What did? Thousands of hours of practice.
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There is some great advice on this thread! Unfortunately I don't think it will be taken advantage of by Bobby or any of the other struggling traders reading this thread. The reason is that the advice given actually requires that the recipient of the advice do lots of WORK. The problem (at least IMHO) is that those being given the advice give the impression that they simply want to be told how to trade rather than figure out how to trade for themselves. The gap between these two approaches is one you could drive the entire CME through.
In general people will not take advice that is not the advice they want to hear - unsuccessful traders are often (not always mind you) attracted to trading because of the easy profits that it seems to promise - that is their fantasy. If you take away this fantasy, it looks a whole lot more like a real job and thus many would rather maintain their fantasy rather than face reality and get to work.
Ed Seykota was asked by Jack Schwager how a losing trader could turn themselves into a winning trader. Ed replied “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do.”
I can't think of a quote in the english language that seems more relevant to this thread. If you want to succeed at trading then STOP READING THIS THREAD and get back to your screen and start collecting statistics on a consistent, disciplined trading approach. I, at least, believe you'll learn more from that exercise than anything you could learn from anyone on this forum. If you can't do that, you have no hope of overcoming the barriers on the way to successful trading.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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