the Stoch hook and cross MUST happen on the THIRD bar(trigger)
OR the CCI MUST CROSS ZERO ON THE THIRD BAR (trigger) BUT, if both happen on th THIRD BAR at the same TIME, this trade has a 90% success rate!!!!!
Today, BOTH HAPPENED AT THE SAME TIME, so this trade was a NO BRAINER!
Entry was at 1.4214 with a 5 tick stoploss minimum, you could have exited at 1.4238 when the stoch K & D lines TOUCHED!
For safety sake, I have a breakeven after 4 ticks profit, because I truely am in recovery mode; takes a lifetime to save enough money for a small account.
Last edited by bobbyacim; July 21st, 2011 at 09:25 AM.
Great looking trade. But remember that mechanical trading is not just about the entry, it is also about risk, and that translates to stops and targets. So, before you enter, consider where your stop is going to be, and based on that, where your exit would have to be to make the trade worth taking. It's great to have a precise entry method, but if your exit method is not also pre-defined in a methodical way, as to where/when/why to take targets and move stops, then you are back to square one.
I am in recover-mode and I CANNOT BLOW MY LITTLE ACCOUNT
This is a system/method I have had for a long time, a while back I ran approx 200 Sim trades and it was fairly profitable on a consistant basis. Why do I say "fairly"?
Because it is 90% mechanical- but the pattern you are looking for has some judgement to it in order to spot the EXACT pattern. thats why it can not be coded.
However, I'm sure you might agree,... don't mine a little judgement if the setup has a high probability of success! PLEASE HELP, I don't know how to do a statistical backtest in ninjatrader. If someone would volunteer to do so, they can private message me and I will be glad to send then an exact copy of the system rules.
If it proves-out that the setup is profitable in backtesting, maybe we can ALL benefit from this setup. Also The system calls for an 8 tick SL minimum ( which is something I have had problems with from the beginning) if someone could figure out the optimum inital Stoploss based on ATR, Price Action, etc..
Basically I am inviting the "heavy hitters" on this forum for the knowledge and talent I do not possesses.
If if can't be coded, then it can't be backtested programmatically. But you should be able to backtest it manually. Load up your chart with as much historical data as you need, and start scanning page by page looking for the patterns, and marking them up on the chart as you find them. Of course that will be tedious and time consuming, but it will be a good exercise. It will train your eye to recognize the setups easily, and might also reveal other nuances about the pattern that may be beneficial.
I have not been able to fully code my setups either, so my backtesting is manual, and very simple. Given that I trade with a fix stop and fixed target. All I need to know is number of winners and number of losers, so I scan the charts and markup winners and losers and keeping count. I actually continually do that exercise every day after market for all my favorite instruments for that trading day.
The following user says Thank You to monpere for this post:
Sounds like you're doing good with your system at this point. But I wonder, that 20 page handout cost $1200?? I've seen systems like that for free on various MT4 sites. The system I mentioned cost less than $150. But I've been there too. I've wasted $2k on a charting software for Fibonacci that could easily be duplicated with custom indicators on NT today. It did not even draw the waves for me. I had to pick the points. Not saying your system is bunk, on the contrary, I personally find it looks effective. CCI coupled with Stoch is a good momentum indicating combo, plus the bounce off a kelter line. Just amazed the vendor could sell that for over $1k on relatively common indicators..
About my previous post. I kept hearing you asking for a mechanical system that works, that "20,000" other people would be interested, and that even "VOODOO" would be acceptable. (Not that I would recommend; I'd stay far clear of voodoo, ouiji boards and like as they open the gates to demonic influences imo.) I'm still new on this forum(a week) so forgive me BM and others, if I was just trying to be helpful and felt compelled to reply to those pleading posts. Now I understand the tone of this forum gives a lot of weight to trading psychology as well and I agree that's a good thing. Anyways, it seems like you already had a good mechanical system working for you already and that you are in the process of learning to trust it. (I'm still curious about what happened with master Reza's market profile btw.)
For backtesting on NT, I'm probably not alone in saying that you need to implement the rules in an NT7 strategy. The NT7 help guide has tutorials on setting up a strategy step by step which you can then backtest. Good luck.
Last edited by Cloudy; July 21st, 2011 at 02:04 PM.
The following user says Thank You to Cloudy for this post:
One one hand its is strange that you have gone from using MP to indicators, but not that strange I guess if it did not work for you. I went from using indicators to MP to indicators to MP to indicators then to MP, indicators, Price Action, and Order flow. The best use of MP in my humble opinion is that it shows you structure of the market and from the structure you look for opportunities in which to trade, that is it, it is the markets live database not a trading system. It allows you to see the market in 3D, price develops on a vertical and horizontal axis. It allows you to see high volume nodes, single prints, buying tails and selling tales, balance and imbalance as well as previous value areas and developing value areas. But I struggled to trade using MP alone. You need other tools to make trade decisions A number of people on this site have very good tools such as Fat Tails, GOMI, and DionysusToast, and FulcrumTrader(Chris) just to mention a few. Teh key is as Mike has alluded to is to make them your own that may sound esoteric but it its a bit like that. I would also read Outlier by Malcolm Gladweel and also Blink.
Good luck and never give up success is alawys around the corner, I just do not know whcih corner.
The following user says Thank You to Trafford for this post:
Thanks for the confidence boost
Yes, I did like Market profile for the top down view it offered of the market in play, master Reza was using it solely for trading, however by itself it was not enough for me to trade succesfully. Went back to the books and read Peter Steidlmayer' original course(from the 1980's) and even he stated that in of itself market profile was NOT ENOUGH to trade off of.
Hey, I did 21 Live trades with a stoploss of $180 for 3 contracts + commision and I only got into trouble within the last 8 trades.
I sincerely believe we all have it in us to succeed at this game, the question is when!