Broker/Data: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Favorite Futures: Treasury futures
Posts: 275 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 165 given,
Smart. My approach too. And "major breakthrough" should be the results of several hundred trades. Also, you mentioned in a previous post that you were trading 3 lots. Scaling is a great tool, but if your methodology is sound you should be able to make money trading 1 lots. Might be easier on the psyche, and will be less damaging to the account when you have strings of losers.
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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Have you tried basic divergence? That is all I trade. I was never a fan of hidden/reverse divergence, as I don't understand the concept behind it. I feel it is just a market side effect that just happens to be right some times. I think extended divergences are also a reach, because if you go back far enough on the charts you can always find a couple of peaks you can identify as extended divergence. I think the most reliable form of divergence is basic divergence. I like them nice and clean, no extraneous wiggles, and congestion inside them. But you have to be comfortable going against the trend, as the majority of them are. The ones with the trend are even more reliable, but they are few and far in between.
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YES! Most Hidden divergences are few and far in between, there are times when I would get up at 4:00 A.M. EST
and not see one until 7:00 ....
I tried both types of divergences and found for me the hidden ones were more likely to follow through, perhaps only because they are always taken with the trend.
I really got good at spotting them, however either the market gradully changed or i started to slip because after a while it was harder to precisely time the turn, granted I was using the typical indicator for precise entry and as we all know, they are not reliable long term. maybe that is why even Roger F. re-vamps his divergence methodology ever- so- often.
I am open to ANY mechanical system that has a proven edge, as I am sure the rest of over 20,000 traders on this forum would also be interested.
Monpere and I talked about this at length in a post somewhere here.
But being mechanical doesn't have to mean that ma1 crosses above ma2.
Mechanical can be as loose as observing how a squiggly line moves, or even one making a general statement such as, "When price hits support I buy, and when price hits resistance I sell."
What makes it mechanical, is that the trader has tuned the fuzzy logic in his brain to recognize a pattern that occurs over and over..... and just through the sheer repetition of observing that pattern so many times, to THAT individual it becomes unmistakable, and THAT person is able to become completely mechanical about deploying that strategy.
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I know exactly what you mean!
the closest consistantly profitable system I tried that left a lasting impression on me was a 20 page handout system that is called tradethebarsnotthestars for $1,200
It has rules and two indicators have to allign-up at the exact TRIGGER BAR!! there is a little discretion in the precise look of the pattern.
Simm trading this setup for over 200 trades showed it was more profitable than not, here was my problem with it:
Setup only appears ONCE a day, usually after watching screen for 4-5 hours.(got big circles under my eyes)
and minimum Stoploss was 8 ticks on the 6E. I thought I might do better with another setup with 5 ticks SL max.
However that has not worked out.
That is pure VOODOO. I understand some believe in a discretionary approach, I am not knocking it, I know there are few talented guys out there who can succeed at it. But I'm tired of discretionary traders offering zen meditation advice instead of concrete help to people who are desperately seeking. There is nothing in the referenced post that can concretely help a person who is trying to find a trading approach.
- drop all the indicators and try to figure out why price moves the way it does
Psycho babble! How does that help a trader?
- tell yourself that you either do it on your own or not at all.
Psycho babble! How does that help trader?
I love it when discretionary traders spew out all this vague, ethereal, zen contemplations, that offer no concrete help whatsoever. I'm not trying to be Confucius, I am trying to trade. If you look at every post I have ever made in favor of a mechanical approach, they have always layed out a concrete plan a person can follow to start them on their way to investigate the approach, and offer actionable advice, short of saying go long when this bar does this.
Philosophical phrases about trading naked, and getting in touch with your discretionary inner being, and finding your chakra, etc. doesn't help anyone. It's about time discretionary traders step up to the plate and offer some actionable advice, rather then lessons in philosophy.
Last edited by monpere; July 20th, 2011 at 03:27 PM.
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My own belief is that you must listen to your GUT as to what you believe is best. Mechanical/Discretionary etc..
I know of no profitable mechanical traders that do not use some form of extended money management, but they could exist and if the emotional issues seem to be your problem then that is probably the way to go.
Go with your heart, everyone's path is different and do what appeals to you and what YOU need, whether that be swing trading, scalping, trend trading etc..
Journal, listen to yourself, and then when you decide. No questions, no qualms, no nothing, you do it until the earth blows up....
I believe if you follow that path you will find profitability. Horst was beat up pretty bad on this forum, and lately I have seen him struggle a bit with the ES (he is trying to conquer the beast that will let him trade unlimited contracts) and I remember his saying that he started trading a long time ago, but stuck with his system 5-6 years ago and it took him 3.5 years of doing the same system over and over and over again to be consistently profitable. Now he is a guy who can pull 3K to 20K out of the market daily (of course he has the occasional bad day) but my point is that it is VERY possible if you stay with what you feel is good AND YOU STICK WITH IT TILL DEATH DO YOU PART!
It doesn't matter what it is, mechanical vs. discretionary (I think this may be where you are leaning) but you have to decide that no matter what, no matter what, no matter what you will stick with it until you are the master!
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