Favorite Futures: Futures - bonds, currencies, index
Posts: 288 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 70 given,
I didn't see anywhere on this thread where he had success, although maybe I missed it. IMO that is the number one problem. If you want to be successful at trading, the very first thing you need to do is know how to define it, and he hasn't even got close.
The following user says Thank You to Xeno for this post:
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Favorite Futures: Treasury futures
Posts: 275 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 165 given,
I don't disagree. Statistically 9 trades is nothing. But he's been working at this a long time, and something felt different to him that time (when he was studying Market Profile). Maybe Master Reza just got him in a more confident frame of mind. In my opinion his emotions are a giant part of his problem, and you can see it from his posts. He went from being defensive and sometimes hostile (in his other thread) to being manic in this thread followed by , I guess, enraged at himself. Most but not all of the best traders I've known are emotionally flat. (I did know one guy, a huge and wildly successful yield curve trader, who was just combative all the time, but at least he was consistent). When I'm trading well, that's my state of mind (flat), and I monitor my state of mind all the time for signs I'm getting emotional.
You can't discount the possibility that @bobbyacim just doesn't have the right emotional makeup to be a trader. It wouldn't mean he was an unsuccessful guy, but IMO it really does take a special type of personality to make it in this business. Hard work and desire alone won't cut it. I'd love to be a professional golfer, but it ain't gonna happen no matter how hard I try. And at some point you have to ask whether you're leaving too many other opportunities on the table while chasing a dream.
This is not intended in any way to be a negative post. Only @bobbyacim can know what his best options are, I just think he needs to consider all the alternatives.
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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If you find that you don't have the emotional requirement, or what I believe to be an inbred ability to be a discretionary trader, then I suggest looking for a strict historically proven mechanical method. This approach will remove the bulk of the natural emotional entanglements involved with making continual trading decisions, because all that will now built into the method itself and its expectancy. Then, the only factor left to deal with is, are you well capitalized enough for the chosen method.
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Any method can be traded that way. Just break down your setups to a strict rule set, including strict trade management, entries, exits, stop movements. Backtest those rules with no deviation, and with discipline. If they prove themselves historically, then you can move forward trading those rules with discipline, no cherry picking, and no on the fly market analysis, interpretation, and egotistical shenanigans.
Take every signal that meets every rule of the method. If you notice any new patterns of failure in certain trades, then setup a filtering rule for these occurrences, then go back and re backtest the method with that new rule added, and if the new stats are positive, then you've just improved your method.
Just trust the stats you derived, knowing that you will expect x percent of losing trades in general. Don't fool around by thinking you can outdo the method by trying to cherry pick only good trades, or try to outperform the market through analysis, or try to outsmart those few special traders out there with that uncanny inbred ability to take your money every time you try to match wits with them.
The following user says Thank You to monpere for this post:
INTERESTING viewpoints; all with a degree of validity. Hey, does anyone have a purely mechanical system that historically is proven to make money. I know the ones I have tried in the last 6 years (approx 20)and over 5000 hrs of chart time have worked for a little while, then market changes and system becomes unprofitable.
Recently I was even emulating/adapting the Felton style by trading hidden divergence only, even used some of his indicators he so generiously gave to this forum. A large number of them where profitable, until I started getting progressively more losers than winners and then not even 1:2 (risk-reward ratio) could'nt keep my account from being grind-down slowly but surely.
I 'm down 2k after 21 trades, I am stopping!!!!!
may recharge my account 1K, but will not trade live until/if I have a major break-thru.