If you look at the report line 17 (see picture)you see that during the last 20 cycles we had a rally 90% of the time. I we look at other recap which has data since Jan/2008 then it is 93%. So you can see that even when we had this bear market for 1.5 year we still had rallies on Sell days.
By the way as long as we get tick above the BdL it is considered a Rally.
We can also see that the average raly is normaly more than 1 tick.
I recieved a very good question by email today and thought I should share it with you all.
Trying to get to grips with Taylor once again - your ebook has been enlightening.
I still struggle with an area I had trouble with on previous attempts at TTT - determining an uptrend from a downtrend (bull and bear) and what to expect on the different days when bears are in control.
I get the impression from your email commentaries that you may understand this - if there was any chance you could write a short document outlining your approach or point me to a part in Taylor's book where he might discuss it (I could never figure out how he determined the Uptrending areas and Downtrending areas in his "book" despite reading a few times).
Any enlightenment would be appreciated
Thank you for your comments on the E-book.
The way I see things, TTT has a standard basic pattern. Buy day we get a decline, Sell day a rally, and SS day continue rally and start the decline.
That is the perfect world. I also find that Taylor's comments were based on a more bullish than bearish market.
However it does work in both direction as evidence by my finding of the Positive 3 day rally even in extreme bear markets.
Now how do I figure out if we are in Bull or Bear trend. There is a few telltale signs that may help.
Bullish trend: Lite or no Declines on Buy day.
More occurrence of Penetrations vs Violations.
Above average Rallies
Above average 3 day rallies
Nothing to do with Taylor but more and larger gap up
Bear trends: Lite or no rallies on Sell days
Failed 3 day rally ( Big red flag)
Below average Rallies and 3 day rallies
Above average Declines
More occurrence of Violations vs Penetrations.
Nothing to do with Taylor but more and larger gap down
This is the things I use in making my comments. Also Sell days are often confusing in nature and by that I mean up and down days. As they try to confuse us as to direction.
Also, although I donít consider myself an Elliot Wave expert, I do try to keep an eye on the wave count and that helps me with the big picture. I have found that EW and TTT does have a tendency to work well together both on the short and not so short term.
I hope that helps.
The following 2 users say Thank You to richbois for this post:
Rich could have not summarized TTT rules better than he did in the previous posts. I also took a little time to read the TTT book which is quite boring...but it is attached here for anyone's reference. But above guidelines are pretty much the summary of the book...
Hope this helps...
Last edited by sam028; December 17th, 2009 at 05:22 AM.
Reason: copyrighted stuff removed