Your comments are spot on and I agree 100%. If you don't have a large amount of 'reserves' you will put yourself in a situation like many of us that requires daily living allowances to accommodate your large screen time etc. and if you fall into the trap of buying this and buying that and losing 100K here and 100K there, before you know it, you need JOB! haha...
I can tell that certain people have different levels of experience and I have to tell you Michael that your posts are awesome.
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I see the OP has decided to stop. He is doing the right thing. Hopes and desires are hard to let go. I liked his honest questions.
Basically it was two questions. How in the world does anyone figure this trading stuff out? and If no one is willing to tell me how to do it, will someone at least show me a Profit and loss statement so at least I know someone is doing it.
I made an absolute fortune in 1983, and to this day I still do not know how people found out about it. But find out they did. How do you do it was all they wanted to know.
In the earrly 90's I entered a national trading contest and did not win it but did very well. But I learned my lesson. Refco wanted me to move to Chicago and run an account. But anything I did for them was going to be their property, so I declined.
I just got out of a second in lifetime trade in the grains last week. But everyone that knew I traded years ago thinks that I no longer trade, and I will keep it that way.
As for daytrading, you have to do the math. How many winners do you have, how many losers? That's it.
Take last Friday for example. There were over 30 trades that i saw, in just one commodity, on just one day! All I want is 2 of them. It's like that almost every day.
By the way, that fotune I made in '83. I lost all of it and more. I did that one more time after that too. And over the yrs I have quit trading vowing to totally give it up, 3 times.
So, no, I will never ever give a clue as to what I know. The dues for gaing the knowledge were too high.
Here's real pain. My wife found me in a corner of the basement once and I had to tell her that I lost everything. Pork bellies. Swiss Franc, sugar, I hate them.
This has been a diversion for me. As I never read or listen to anything having to do with the markets. I was however gratefull for the posts in theNinja Trader forums.
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The sentiment is easy to understand, yes, but the reason the reaction to it is quite strong is that the desire for proof is utterly wrong (and I'm not talking about trading trainers here, as I mentioned earlier - that's a separate topic)
Let me explain why it's wrong.
1. Many traders requiring proof would not know how to interpret it. It would be meaningless.
2. If you get proof, you'll probably want to just copy the method. This will greatly delay your advancement as a trader
3. Getting proof will prove to you that trading can be profitable for others. This is a bad thing. If you find this out it could well cost you a lot of money trying to be profitable in the wrong way
4. Getting proof that it's possible will tell you nothing about whether or not you can be profitable, which is the real question.
That last one is really important. People are tempted to say - well at least I know it's possible. Well clearly it's possible - just read market wizards. But whether it's possible for you is a much more important question than whether it's profitable in general.
So, my advice is, work out how you could determine whether a trading method is consistently possible. Have a little read about error and statistics. Have a read about luck, drawdown, sharpe ratios and risk of ruin. Find out about testing and in/out sample data. Then develop your own methods, and test them. Make them your own. You will be so much closer to being a profitable trader.
That's just my advice. There are other approaches, but I've found if you don't treat it somewhat as a science you're just surfing on the ups and downs of luck.
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I have read alot here over the last couple of months. Some comments really bother me like traders saying we are your competition, Find what works for yourself I understand about self reliance however speaking for myself I come here because they are tired of getting screwed by the institutional PLAYERS and looked for help to approach trading . You think there would be more help since us small timers would band together. I would think that people would lend more of a helping hand so the learning curve wouldn't be so steep. I for one would like to put together an algorthym for trading. Surely at least the technicals would be more easily shared. I know there are alot of techniques and some like different ones But there still should be some consensus on what is a good approach like how many time perids to use beginning with 1,3,5days etc followed by 1,5, 15 min. then followed by the best ticks to select and when they all line up you have a higher success of a profitable trade. Input for what works best for what your trading like ES, CL, etc would be helpful as well.
One still has to learn to understand the marketand be aware of the geopoloitical events as well how the economic calender effects trading or not. No one give give you the right personality for trading some people will be good at this some others not. So far I have made 1588$ since Jan 10th but that has been just on intuition and use of a forecastesing service for 6 weeks. I have not traded knowing full well I need better understanding of set ups. So if there is anyone who wants to lend a hand I am listening. Thanks
They wanted to burn Galileo at the stake because he said some so heretical that he was considered either mad or evil or both. Then, as now, truth was/is stranger than fiction. You can believe what your mind has been bullied into believing. At this point, the truth won't even matter.
Then there is the concept that if such profitable traders existed, I doubt anyone could ever convince them of truly simply coming up with their PNL for the sake of convincing someone with an internet logon of their ability. They would gladly accept anonymity, silence and derision.
Does that sound completely alien and unrealistic? If it does, you are simply not open minded enough....yet.
BTW - who is claiming 2000% a month?
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Open minded. Hmmmm. What does that mean? I can't open my mind long enough to question myself.
And, per your question. YES, it does sound alien that people will buy Lamborghini's, multi-million dollar mansions, private jets, box seats at sporting events, blah blah blah and yet, they are concerned that an anonymous trading statement would bankrupt them.
In a world that relishes materialism and scoffs at people who 'just don't get it' (materialism and the greed or fascination of money money money) then it is hard to believe they will pay for all those items, but 'don't want to be noticed' by others for their ability to build wealth.
Look, I have made a few million, I was lucky enough to do it somewhat young. I had learned that I am cool and poor people suck and they just don't 'get it' and it is a lack of 'hard work' and diligence and perseverance etc.. I am the best, others aren't or my class of people are better than your class of people or I can buy things that you can't, blah blah blah.... The only person who can see my financial statement is my CPA because because because...
I don't want to see anyone's statements, well, yes I do if they claim something. If I was on a real estate side and some new developers said, I want to see your balance sheet or financial statement, I would balk. No doubt. But, I think it is a bit different game as I can show ownership of an asset and you can quickly surmise what reality is within that investment within about 5 seconds if you have any experience.
With trading, beginning traders are reaching out saying, can someone show me some profitability because I have given it my all and I am coming up short. Some NEED to see that glimmer of hope as that is what drives them to move forward. You can say, 'well, those people are weak, and that would just be more trouble for everyone'....
I agree that too much negativity is cast out and saying well, you can't prove it, but this is the only profession I know that is so guarded in secrecy that you can't actually figure out what someone has done. To some, following is a way to get started, to others, it isn't and we all have different paths. I have seen vendors that start with something, and a student takes it to a whole new level beyond the original.
I love when people use the words 'right' and 'wrong'. or 'should'. I used it in a post last night and I laugh everytime I am so RIGHT and everyone should do what I tell them and believe what I believe etc.. We are all wrong. Every time, wrong. In some dimension, in some way, but we are also right. Just a matter in my opinion of the context one can see when making that decision.
Done w/ this conversation for now. We are all too smart for our own good.
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I'll lend a helping hand. It will be something you will not want to hear. And others will say "If you can't say something constructive, don't say anything." But it will be the best advice you will get.
I for one would like to put together an algorthym for trading. Surely at least the technicals would be more easily shared. I know there are alot of techniques and some like different ones But there still should be some consensus on what is a good approach like how many time perids to use beginning with 1,3,5days etc followed by 1,5, 15 min. then followed by the best ticks to select and when they all line up you have a higher success of a profitable trade.
Forget all that stuff you just wrote! Not one of those things is going to make you money! It's all the same worthless stuff. It's unending. It just doesn't work.
You've already bought into the notion that new and better indicators are all that stand between you and success.