I have no opinion of this particular method, but this part is important in a general sense. You can't figure it out any more than you can figure out why a coin will come up tails 6 times in a row sometimes. In some sense, that's what random means: you can't figure it out.
Whenever theoretical probability and reality come face to face, reality kicks theory in the nuts and runs away laughing. If the theoretical number is correct, then over time you can expect to converge on it with diminishing variance. In any short run, though, you can have incredibly painful "anomalies" (just like flipping a coin). And that's with any method, free, paid-for, or otherwise.
So, when you have a trading idea that you expect to work with high probability, you simply can't be swayed by small strings of results. Even with the coin toss, after a couple hundred trials, you can have 60% tails. It doesn't mean the coin is bad.
By the same token, you can look at a short run of results and it will look phenomenally good (like if you get heads 9 times out of 10). This is how you can advertise a worthless indicator without much trouble... you just show people the good runs and let them assume the rest. But it's also one of the reasons why supposedly "smart" backtesters fall down. If you consider the relatively small amount of data most retailers have available to backtest with, the average underdog backtesting trader is screwed before he/she starts. And they usually blame curve fitting! LOL
(not that curve fitting isn't another big problem)
The following 2 users say Thank You to Richard for this post:
I admit that I got suckered into buying the ebook, course, or whatever you want to call it. It is an opening range BO system, but he has modified it for days when price trends real hard and never comes back to the entry. Oddly enough he calls that the "chase the trade" trade. Something I need to not do. I don't trade the method, but did try a few times and made money. Of course its the long haul we need to be concerned about and not 1 or 2 trades or days. The 5 point stop in my opinion is crazy and that alone made me abandon the method. My advice to anyone contemplating buying the ebook or any method for that matter is to not do it. Everything anyone needs is here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and as Mike would say, "With in us".
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
Start a journal and we will all welcome your progress as you go through this method. One of the coolest ways to evaluate a vendor's product to track your success with it as you trade it's signals in a journal. I would love to be proven wrong.
The following user says Thank You to Dragon for this post:
You use pre market hour and post market hour together is very interesting. As most people use the first 30 minutes range that would the range of the day for 1/3 chance. If we use first 60 minutes range, the chance as the day range is 60%, anf 80% if we use the first 90 minutes's range.