CM-Method Home-Study Course Knowing when, where and most importantly why to take a trade is the difference between serious traders and recreational gamblers (aka market donors) at home that likewise fund professional traders' accounts. A few of the many topics covered... realities of our trading profession
mindset of a veteran trader
CM Filter Charts setup
CM Price Action measurement tools
trading CM Price Patterns
trading CM TB Patterns
trading patterns on patterns
trading pullback versus breakout entries
measuring profit objective exits before trade is entered
be aware of the mouse-cheese situations
multiple positions for +2x leverage with -1x risk
trading one market / symbol versus multiple symbols
choosing the right symbol for you
trading one contract versus multiple contracts
add contract size strategically
add contract size emotionally
dealing with equity peaks and big-profit events
dealing with drawdown days
dealing with drawdown stretches
trading out of equity troughs and draw-downs
over-trading & "scalping"
folly of following news
ignoring the noise around you
managing your trading day
Last edited by nqcruiser; September 22nd, 2010 at 08:21 AM.
Reason: giving substance
Let me start off by saying that I am not a profitable trader, as I’m assuming Austin is, so consider that while reading my comments.
I recently took Austin Passamonte’s Intensified Training course (coiledmarkets.com), which cost me $997. This course came with a guarantee, that if Austin didn’t make at least the course cost within a month, he would refund the price of the course. Having seen many of his free webinars, I felt this was a decent offer and went for it. I spent 2 months in the room. He did indeed trade for well over the course cost in August, but suffered a slow, grinding ~$2,000 draw down in September before trading back up to break even by the end of the month.
As with anything, there are good, bad, and mixed things. First the good stuff.
The system is predicated on a sound idea – that the markets move through periods of contraction and expansion in all time frames. This system is designed to capture the breakouts from periods of consolidation.
The signals are very clear. No interpretation required. There are not a lot of signals either, and you can learn the whole thing in about an hour, however, Austin says it will take months to learn how to trade them well. I disagree with this.
Austin answers all questions promptly, whether in the room, email, or posts to his forum.
Now some mixed stuff.
The study course is about a dozen videos, most of which were recorded about 2 years ago. At first I was disappointed by that, but then I figured if he’s been trading the exact same way all this time, the stuff must work.
He always highlights the areas on the charts where he is interested in going long or short. Sometimes he enters the market with a stop order (or pre-staged as he calls it), and sometimes he’ll enter with a limit order. His standard procedure is to use a stop entry in a trending market, and a limit order otherwise. He will usually type into the comments box if he’s using a stop entry, but for some reason, he won’t use the chart trader feature with Ninja, despite multiple requests and an explanation of the benefits to the viewers. This would help us see the orders more clearly, and let us see how he manages the trades once he’s in. Sometimes there are a lot of comments unrelated to his trades in the comments box, so having to filter all that out to get to his trading is an unnecessary inconvenience.
Many times price would move into his pre-market area of interest and he would not take the trade. No explanations are given unless you ask. Sometimes they’re winners, sometimes losers.
Now some bad stuff.
The system is not robust. Without one of the defined patterns, there is simply no way to get into a trending market. You will watch 50 and 100 tick moves (talking about CL here) leave you behind with no way to enter. Austin does say he is not interested in capturing every leg of every move, but there are a lot of moves you’re going to miss.
On range days, or days without big runs, the system is very ineffective.
Austin does not care about any higher time frame S/R levels. He simply wants to go short below the opening range and long above it, preferably getting as close to the OR as possible. The premise is that price will trend towards the 233% or higher fib extension. Ignoring HTF S/R in my opinion, is a major flaw. There were at least 2 instances last week where he blamed algorithms for failed trades when he was trying to short into the previous day’s HOD. Sometimes price will make an abrupt v-turn reversal. Austin will blame the algorithms, but if you look back at a HTF chart, you can see price did the same exact thing last time it was in that area. No one knows if it will react the same way, but caution is certainly called for.
After spending money to buy the course, you find out that there’s an additional charge of $30/month for access to the room. Austin uses a 3rd party product (Hotcomm.com) that isn’t part of the cost of the course. I feel this should be disclosed somewhere.
Austin spends a lot of time complaining about automated trading, which he blames for poor market conditions, chop, v-turns, surges ‘out of nowhere’, etc. I think blaming anyone or anything for your losses is just bad form, and doesn’t promote the mindset of taking responsibility for one’s trades.
Austin claims this system will work on any market, but when CL was not offering winning trades, Austin chose not to trade it for days and days, and not replace it with another market. When TF beat him up, he dropped that market also without replacement. This seemed like very strange behavior for a professional trader. Think of Linda Raschke, who scans about 20 markets for her patterns. Austin’s patterns are brain-dead simple, and easily identifiable. In my opinion, if they work in all markets as he claims, the room should have been scanning other markets.
While struggling with CL, Austin changed his trade chart from 250 ticks, to 500 volume, to 10 range, then briefly to a 3 minute chart, then back to 10 range. This means what he’s trading are really random lines.
Overall, this is what I got out my experience:
Looking for market consolidation patterns and playing the expansion is a good strategy, however I would recommend reading Volman’s book instead of taking this course. It’s a lot cheaper.
Hold for larger targets. Austin holds for 40 tick targets, yet only risks 10 ticks per trade. From what I’ve seen, this very high RR is what makes him profitable. Austin has said repeatedly that holding for 20 ticks or even 30 ticks won’t make you profitable in the long run. I think this speaks volumes about his method, if a 2:1 RR isn’t good enough for long term profitability.
Don’t take patterns blindly. Be aware of the higher time frame landscape.
Last edited by Tiger45; October 4th, 2013 at 04:10 PM.
The following 8 users say Thank You to Tiger45 for this post:
Followed him when I was a newb long ago. I personally do not believe he is a consistently profitable trader as do many others if you look on elite. There are elements of his system which are sound but I think you can do better especially for 1k
The following 2 users say Thank You to adkelley for this post:
I also took the course and the above summary is really good. IMO it's a waste of money. I also saw Austin go from Soybeans (being the perfect market) to Oil (and now Soybeans were terrible) to the Russell (and now Soybeans + Oil were terrible). I also saw the jumping of chart settings from tick, volume and minute based charts. At first there was a chat room (that was really dead) to no chat room and back to a chat room (due to the huge demand for it) and back to no chat (because hardly anyone was in the room).
Are you confused yet?
That's how you will feel taking this course. Whatever market is 'hot' will be a god-send and Austin will have no problem telling you how great this market and his system is. Until it is no longer working and then everything will change on you. It's a big cluster mess of stuff inside the paid portion of the site. You will sit in a dead chat room (assuming there is a chat room at the time) and get very little real-time explanations.
You'll see the pricing of the course change, the name of it change, etc. to drum up new business. He posts on ET from time-to-time while doing a TST combine, but we've never seen him complete it in profit. His last combine failed as he just stopped posting updates and provided the standard Austin BS reasoning. Had the combine passed, you can be sure everyone on ET and his email list would know.
As the above posts states, you can find the same 'system' much cheaper in a basic TA book and probably get much more out of it. You will get much more value from a book like the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (and save considerable $) over Austin and coiledmarkets.
The following 4 users say Thank You to trader000 for this post:
Thanks trader000 and adkelley. Can't believe I fell for that. I did a lot of searching on him before I bought the course, and couldn't find much, so I figured it would be OK. There were a lot of flames on ET, but that place is so toxic, I didn't give them any consideration. They would hate Mother Theresa if she posted.
Hi to all of you who have been nice enough to give not only the truth you have experienced with coiled markets, but something even harder to do...just give YOUR truth, without anger and blame and belittling the owner.
Some points and questions if any of you would care to answer them I'd appreciate it :
#1-He claims right on his You Tube Video that he will hit his 233 fib number 90% of the time once the trade is taken. How can he possibly make a claim like that without getting sued if you guys cant even win a tiny amount following his system? What is his current win% now or if you dont know, what was it when you were following him?
#2-I only found out about him yesterday after watching his presentation from I think either Traders Kingdom or Mirus. I had watched sooooo many vendors videos from both of those guys I gave it a rest for over a year and so when I found something new that seemed to use juts one fib number and its nice and simple, I started getting excited. (Once a sucker always a sucker, right? lol ) What hooked me was what he said in his 57min video was very true. And that was , there isnt the usual ABC pullback to allow traders to get in on a big move. Its just an explosion from nowhere that if you get in on an hourly bar that is huge, it is often the same size on a 15 min bar! Look at the JPY move that went on for 6 months and it had almost no pullbacks, just sideways action back to the trend, sideways, back to the trend....for 6 months? And he blamed computerized trading for it which does kinda make sense as I am finding the Forex market at least, does NOT move the same way anymore. And if you just look at the stock indices, youd have to ask what countries stock market this was if you didnt see any markings or numbers, right? Its been 3 unreal years? So Im thinking....."ahhh, a guy who can notice this can find the answer to how to beat this. Yeah, Im so psyched!!!!!!"
Yeah, psychotic might be better. And then comes that small ,still voice we traders always like to step on that goes....".if its so good, why is he selling it." You guys ever have that run thru your minds before? Im the only one? Awwwwwww......
Anyway, I see in hois presentation his course is like $649 and its not clear if he actually has a daily trade room as he says the bonus for signing this month is you can use the trade room for free this moth. Does that come with hottcomm or sweet and sour sauce at least? HE DOESNT SAY.......
I guess Im trying to find a reason to investigate further as Im just disgusted with technical trading as a stand alone way to pull money out of the markets. I have been such a fabulous medium- long term" buy and maybe hold" investor managing my mothers money till she passed 3 yrs ago and now most of its gone, that stubbornly I cant go back to what I was really good at. I spent years and years learning fibs and I now find that yes thet work, and quite a lot. Just not enough to make it worth your time to quit your day job. Every expert on it seems to need the income from a book or a trading room. But thats with almost every kind of tech. analysis there is. And I truly believe that these are not grandmas markets anymore. There is something that has permanently changed. I see huge differences from just 1995 to now as both bull markets do not even resemble each other. I just thought this guy was making sense. Guess what Id love to know is:
#3-Why bother buying his system at all. Why not just do the fib set up yourself (if thats possible on most charts) and get out at the .233 Seems his systen(the way he showed it 2 days ago) is just take the opening 5 min bar, and wait for a breakout from either side of it and hold on till .233. Im sure theres a bit more but can I pick it up watching his free videos? Is it possible he has improved it since the 3 yrs you guys tried it?
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader50 for this post:
Daytrader 50, I am a new trader also, so you may want to discount my advice based on that knowledge. I am learning there is no "1" correct way to trade a market. Fortunately, there are some good ways to choose from. The trick is to find a few good ways to trade the market you are interested in, as each market is unique. Bonds don't trade like crude. E-Mini is a mean reversion system. Crude is not. I have found crude works well with MA crossovers and MACD. Crude does not do well with stochastic. This is just my observation.
I always put the 5 minute opening range fib bars up on my chart after I stumbled on the You Tube channel videos explaining this. I use -233, -382 and -561. A lot of the time it works. But sometimes when ranging, it takes a long time to get there. So, I use the Keltner channels more for my guide posts to where price is trading.
I am always aware of what the price bars are doing at S/R and floor pivot point areas. Do I get a reversal bar at a S/R level? Go with it! Do I get a WRB? Go with that! In crude, you can use daily floor pivots from the past 4 days pretty well as S/R.
I always keep my eye on the Keltner bands to tell me where price action may be going. And, even before Keltner, I look at the phases, phase 1 sideways, phase 2 up, phase 3 more sideways action, and phase 4 down. Yesterday - phase 4 big time.
You have to trade the price action on the screen and forget your bias for the day. I go through an exercise each day of putting up S/R and pivot points and I also put up the 5 minute fib opening range bands. Sometimes I find myself so confused by all the stuff on the chart that I get paralyzed and fearful of making a trade because there is some S/R area or fib band sitting there. I have to remind myself to wait for the bar to close and look at the price action bars. Are they big? Is it a reversal bar? Is it a green bar? Where is Keltner? What is the 30 minute chart doing? I trade the 5 minute chart. What are the moving averages doing? Are they flat? Are they spread apart? Sometimes trading is like using common sense. Find a rhythm. Find your own way to slice and dice it.
Right now, crude is selling off and may find yesterday's bottom. Gotta go.
The following user says Thank You to jlwade123 for this post: