A few years ago before Carolyn went for the big money I spent some time in her room. Mark often hosted and I found him to be a better instructor. Carolyn was reasonable. She cut me a deal for the room, a fraction of what she charges now. She seemed a bit bored with trading. She used "FibTrader" then DTI, which is more expensive and complicated.
I didn't find Fibs very useful in the long run and have spoken to someone who has tested them over time, deciding that at least on their own, there is no edge in using them. If you can find a confluence of price support or resistance I would say that would give you a better edge.
I have run some probability distributions on fibs. They give you a moderate edge. If you use confluence zones you can combine the smaller edges into larger edges. Just scan the chart for all sorts of lines including classic support and resistance zones (= 100% retracements), retracements, expansions, projections, measured moves.
The other way to apply fibs is to look at the 38% and 50% on a 60 minute chart (3-day-period) and the 76% on intraday charts for ES. These levels give you an edge. The 50% level over a 3-day-period /balance point) will also add a bullish or bearish note to the price action.
Examples: I trade TF, so the examples below are for TF. The first chart shows confluence zones, the second one the bullish bias show by the balance point with a fib retracement overlay. Note that the price action never stopped exactly at the 38% or the 50% line, but that these levels confirm the bullishness. Of course you can also use 37.5% (3/8) 50% (4/8) and 62.5% (5/8), etc. This would barely make a difference, but fibs are more fashionable.
Last edited by Fat Tails; October 2nd, 2010 at 05:58 PM.
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There is a big distinction between: 1. they didn't work for you, and 2. they don't work. Fibs have stood the test of time and are still an excellent tool in knowledgeable hands.
On the topic of Boroden - her webinars are simply teasers. Buy the book if you want to really learn her methods.
After months of having it. This book is not a book you want on kindle. Too many things you need to mark up and constantly reference. So far I would rank this as one of the best trading books around. Im curious why she discontinued her full time chat room, though. I think she now just has a newsletter service, right guys? Maybe she made so much money she doesnt want to trade all day. If you look at her, this woman is definitely a party person. Cute too. Hey, I make 2 or 3 million I dont know if I would want to be stuck in a chat room all day either. Anyway, buy her book in paper. Forget the trees this one time. -)
Guys, if you have read my past posts here and on other boards you know I am trying to make fibs my key analysis tool. I made a big mistake last month by not trying Carolyns daily newsletter service because 2 or 3 times a week she has been sending me posts in advance! And I havent seen her with a loser all month. Im not just talking Visa, Apple and other stocks but ES and GOLD futures as well. I instead got involved with a very "long to learn: harmonics trading method which is based a lot on the 2 step pattern which Carolyn loves anyway. It features Gartley, Butterfly patterns ,etc. Just follwing fib clusters was more fun but Im not doing too bad wirth this so I will keep you guys posted. Too bad cAROLYN doesnt have free trials in the room anymore. And whomever posted back in 2010 they werent that impressed with her, maybe she has really come into her own now. Well, if harmonic trading doesnt work for me, I an either going to be in her room or get her newsletter. Anyone else here working with Harmonic trade patterns or Carolyn Borodens work?
First, it is pretty sad that my post was the last post on this thread....a year ago. Guess we can have people too interested in Harmonics or Fibs, at least in the context we were talking about it.
First off, IMHO, although fibs are used, there is no similarity between Scott Carneys harmonic setups "who made up that word harmonic for this system anyway?" Sells a lot of books. Second just because(and he denies it!) Mark Braun worked for Carolyn Boroden years ago is no telling who is the better trader. I would say that Mark sticks with SPY and DIA futures 80% with a bit of Forex analysis done as a courtesy more for his chat room members than anything else. When i was a paid for member, the guy was blazing. Same with Carolyn, could just be luck but everything she put out either never got triggered or hit its target. BOTH AMAZING TRADERS! Scott you can keep as you have no idea the work youll be doing to get these harmonics in line to find setups and so many times they dont trigger. And he gives no free trials away as last i checked.
I dont know what one poster was talking about Carolyn 'going for the big money". If that means she is being more commercial, she deserves it. Because she still gives a pick away every day! My frustration with all of the above is that when I try to see how I can make a living using either of their signals......they just dont trigger often enough or....waddle around for many days before hitting their tgt or going nowhere. Also Mark likes shorter time frames like the 15 min with the 3 min to confirm and I cant ever make a living on such short time frames. Carolyn however gives both. But what good does it do to sit in her chatroom when you havbe a day trade from the day before on, and it is not going to hit tgt or get stopped out that day in 100 yrs. So too much time wasted in both of their rooms. I wish they both had a bib scanner that could show us what stock or future is triggering NOW!
As for Rober Miner who Carolyn claims is her mentor, I wouldnt give you $150 let alone $1500 for his software that depends way, way too much on time analysis which i admit I dont understand hiow to put in in the chart and have no patience for it and nobody has proved it works. I was hoping by 2013 , a few peoplwe would tell us they are making a living or at least some money with Mark and Carolyn which for paid rooms, Id put them UP AGAINST ANYONE AND THEIR ROOM! Im just not seeing if doing figures on 22 different stocks or instruments isnt worse than actually going to a job. And if you havent read Carolyns only Fib Book...its the best $16-$20 I ever spent. Again, its soooooo complicated and I wish both her and Mark had a simple 2 page checklist. I respect them both.
Oh yes...show me one guy who is even excited about Miners $1500 software. I will bet anyone who buys it is so embarrassed to say so, they wont mention it. Thats just my opinion. I personally would love to start a Fib club or Fib Forum like Mike has here, but just with Fib trading. You all have to admit that Mark and Carolyns theory of having 3 fib numbers all line up within 1/2 inch of each other gives them a lot more strength than when taken alone.
Me personally, Im trying to use a co. called Ratio trading which specialized in taking trades that bounce of the .618. Imagine making your own system juts on that one bounce/action???? He too has a system too complicated for me!
I am sure that the post could be helpful if you had taken some time to frame your thoughts.
Its so disjointed, I had to double check if Del Ray Beach was in the US.
Is Carolyn good but too expensive? Method has an edge or not? They are all different therefore not worth looking into?
I have admitted I bought Miner's DT5 on the sticky "Admit what products have you spent on " thread.
Really nothing new which can't be done on NT. and it was old school software written for Windows 9x.
Doesn't pick the elliot waves either. One still has to pick the pivot points.
Fibs, Miner and Borodin style may have worked 15 years ago, but I hadn't seen any sign of consistent results today. Today's market has a lot more big money participants wise to the old multiple projections and multiple retracements that they can easily whiplash those retailers who are still trying to do so that way. A perfect 5 wave or even 3 wave is like an extinct species now. It's more like Fat Tails said, stick to a couple of fibs like 38% 68% on the longer time frame, and mainly 68% 100% on the short time frame. I do that with my choice of oscillators and MA's and it's the best fib success with those simple fib ratios I've ever had.
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