I think you might have slightly misunderstood, but that's entirely understandable for someone unfamiliar with the betting exchanges. Pre-event sports trading does not require knowledge of the actual event, just the price. A lot like in some forms of futures trading; trading is entirely market profile based.
Fundamental analysis is used by the traditional bettor who does not seek to trade the hypothetical probability of an outcome happening.
Last edited by QuantSports; September 12th, 2010 at 06:10 PM.
Reason: lies, damn lies and statistics
The following user says Thank You to QuantSports for this post:
Thanks for pointing to this. If I misunderstood anything, it was a bit on purpose. I am not following any horse races, although I know that some people use sophisticated mathematical models to do arbitrage between different types of bets. NinjaTrader does not allow for executing spreads, so your customers are limited to directional bets, and commission and bid/ask can only be earned once.
How is this marketplace regulated? I would not trade on many FOREX retail platforms, and I have no confidence in instruments like CFDs. I am not afraid of futures and options, but I might be afraid of horse betting,
This has nothing to do with arbitrage (something that doesn't exist on the betting exchanges). The analysis is meant to be used in conjunction with other Betfair trading platforms (that can execute spreads several times over). The markets are very similar to futures (in the sense that you are buying or selling a bet with an implied % chance of a future event happening) just on an incredibly short time-frame (for a trader the market only is active for about 10 minutes, though for scalping it could be lower than 5 minutes).
The markets aren't regulated (at all), it's just the respective sporting bodies which investigate match fixing and I believe Betfair co-operate with them. Some in-play markets are managed. Spread is entirely natural but is subject to incremental pricing. Commission is only on winnings. It's a closed market and Betfair just provide a platform, nothing like retail brokers. So in case you are wondering, there is a lot of insider trading and market manipulation
Hi 3virgul14 , no i dont trade betfair anymore i am now on forex because there is to less volumes on a betfair market thats why some traders who come in with 10.000k or more can easily manipulate the price. Secondly, each market trading is less than 5 minutes => all the indicators take some times to appear because you need some historical price for them to work properly. But if you want to take a try here is the RSsqueezze.
NB. - Dont trade in play
- Prefer trading market between price range 2-4