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Jigsaw Trading's Peter Davies - Ask Me Anything (AMA)
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Jigsaw Trading's Peter Davies - Ask Me Anything (AMA)

  #131 (permalink)
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grasiu View Post
At times like this, if the ES starts moving like CL, maybe treasuries start moving like ES? For a beginner just learning to watch T&S, would you suggest to maybe switch to treasuries during a high volatility day like this or should one stay on ES (the learn more vs learn too much dilemma)?

If you're brand new to reading the DOM then I'd suggest a slower market in the beginning. My person preference for something slower and easier to read is the Bund or even Euro Stoxx (FESX). A much easier thing to read when starting out. If those don't work out well for your timezone then I'd consider the treasuries.


Last edited by empty; December 13th, 2014 at 11:34 PM. Reason: Additional info
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  #132 (permalink)
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kickmic View Post
Hi Peter,

...
Question: Trying to get my head around what is happening in the two examples below in relation to using CD in determining bias
I recognise both days traded in a range between previous days highs and lows, however I'm surprised to see the CD trending so strongly to the upside.

thanks again

If I may,
This is a question of interpreting CD. There are many posts in various threads concerning this phenomenon and many futures.io (formerly BMT) members would tell you that you cannot interpret CD as any other technical indicator and that they would not use it in their analysis because it is not reliable.

To be as clear and simple as possible, it depends on whether the market is currently market (orders) driven or limit (orders) driven. That is all. You have to watch the movement and the CD but you may never know how long the market will be limit driven (with CD diverging). But you need to be aware of it and not follow CD blindly.

My two cents.

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  #133 (permalink)
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Hey Peter,

I've talked with some traders who told me to enter a trade with Tape reading where the Big Players take trades. He has Levels in his Dom. How do I know these Levels? Can you give an advice?

Many thanks in advance.

Edit: I Think these are Key Levels for institutions.


Last edited by arroganzmaschine; January 12th, 2015 at 02:57 PM.
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  #134 (permalink)
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kickmic View Post
Hi Peter,

what I call vacuums, the fast explosive moves that are likely to pullback due to having used up all the short term fuel - verses what I call grinding action, which has constant supply of fuel (therefore don't fade!), are two concepts that I now have a greater understanding of what's occurring having just watched your 2 webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT).... so thank you - I plan on watching them again


Question: Trying to get my head around what is happening in the two examples below in relation to using CD in determining bias
I recognise both days traded in a range between previous days highs and lows, however I'm surprised to see the CD trending so strongly to the upside.

thanks again

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Sorry I missed this one.

One of the things to remember with CD analysis, it works better on thicker markets. On some markets delta can go the opposite way to price for an extended period. If you think about it, if a market is regularly wiggling around 4-6 ticks as crude does, you can very easily get a fill on a limit order. With a thick market that is not the case, so if you want in now, you really have to use a market order.

The other thing to note is that CD will not help much at the end of the day when people are unwinding their positions. That end of day action can be really odd - sitting at levels churning many thousands of contracts/shares/

So with both of these markets you first have to step back and consider how well delta appears to work at all - go back over 20-30 days worth. Does it appear relevant at all? Is it breaking down at the open/close?

On the pic on the left, I can't see the times but it does appear that the upshift in delta is towards the end of the day. The size of that delta shift has re-scaled the earlier delta which looks almost flat. So I'd shift that chart over a bit and look at the earlier part of the day without that ending move rescaling the delta.

For the chart on the right - is that flat spot in the middle some missing data for GOMI CD?

Anyway - go back first & see how well it works in general on those markets. I'd be very interested to hear your observations.

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  #135 (permalink)
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arroganzmaschine View Post
Hey Peter,

I've talked with some traders who told me to enter a trade with Tape reading where the Big Players take trades. He has Levels in his Dom. How do I know these Levels? Can you give an advice?

Many thanks in advance.

Edit: I Think these are Key Levels for institutions.

Well - any place that's nice & obvious and lots of people can see is a good level. Pull up a 1 or 2 hour chart and look at the major reversal points.

You want a price that lots of people can see. Those are areas lots of people tend to get in which means there's lots of people to nudge out of position.

I wouldn't say these are ideal areas to enter though. They are great for large traders that can nudge the market about - but is that really the best place to get in?

Intraday, you might not get close to a prior key reversal point and my own opinion is that playing the "steps" and "high volume nodes" that develop off the intraday volume profile is where the money is.

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  #136 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Well - any place that's nice & obvious and lots of people can see is a good level. Pull up a 1 or 2 hour chart and look at the major reversal points.

You want a price that lots of people can see. Those are areas lots of people tend to get in which means there's lots of people to nudge out of position.

I wouldn't say these are ideal areas to enter though. They are great for large traders that can nudge the market about - but is that really the best place to get in?

Intraday, you might not get close to a prior key reversal point and my own opinion is that playing the "steps" and "high volume nodes" that develop off the intraday volume profile is where the money is.

Thank you very much! By steps you mean the high volume nodes or just the steps behind a high volume node? Do you think Globex High/Low and VAH/VAL is important too?

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  #137 (permalink)
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arroganzmaschine View Post
Thank you very much! By steps you mean the high volume nodes or just the steps behind a high volume node? Do you think Globex High/Low and VAH/VAL is important too?

By steps I mean the steps either side of a high volume node.

I do think globexl hi/low and vah/val are important but I prefer not to trade them as those areas are very crowded. I'd rather have those areas resolve themselves and then jump on whichever side 'wins' for a smaller chunk of the move.

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  #138 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
By steps I mean the steps either side of a high volume node.

I do think globexl hi/low and vah/val are important but I prefer not to trade them as those areas are very crowded. I'd rather have those areas resolve themselves and then jump on whichever side 'wins' for a smaller chunk of the move.

Thank you! Helps a lot to understand order flow a bit better!

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  #139 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
By steps I mean the steps either side of a high volume node.

I do think globexl hi/low and vah/val are important but I prefer not to trade them as those areas are very crowded. I'd rather have those areas resolve themselves and then jump on whichever side 'wins' for a smaller chunk of the move.


Would you prefer Trading the ES as a beginner or the treasuries? Because I saw Nice order flow activity in the ZN.

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  #140 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Sorry I missed this one.....


Anyway - go back first & see how well it works in general on those markets. I'd be very interested to hear your observations.

Thank you Peter for the thoughtful response.

I'll follow up with you when I have studied the markets I posted further

CD was text book "6-ish this morning" (I'm in Melbourne Aus) on the YM (a market that acts more like my index futures than say the more rotated and thicker ES)

FYI, I also pay attention to an indicator I created by combining other ideas


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