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FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything (AMA)
Started:March 7th, 2013 (03:35 PM) by Big Mike Views / Replies:103,893 / 509
Last Reply:November 29th, 2016 (02:49 PM) Attachments:19

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FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything (AMA)

Old May 19th, 2015, 08:17 AM   #431 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Harmonic Rotations

Hi FT,

I am importing my zig zag study into excel on 60 minute chart. I had the zig zag setting at 4 ticks. I then proceeded to take the average absolute value of the ZZ change to get a rotation of around 21 points. Does this average rotation size relative to the timeframe seem correct or am i missing something?


If someone else can help too that knows the answer feel free to jump in.

Thanks.

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Old June 15th, 2015, 05:27 PM   #432 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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Posts: 229 since Feb 2012
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I'm getting caught up on the thread. Sorry for my absence. I'm working on a billion things at the same time.

I wanted to see if any of you attended last Friday's AMA that I held and posted on Twitter. I would like to have your feedback if possible. Let me know if you didn't attend or haven't gotten a copy of the recording.

I will respond to the various questions over the next couple of days.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old June 15th, 2015, 05:32 PM   #433 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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elitetradernyc View Post
Hi, do you have any particular strategy for the 3pm to 4pm hour? was pretty volatile today. Do you think the imbalances work?

I don't use the closing imbalances as information. If you plot the imbalance against the last 45 mins of futures trading, you may not see a correlation. I believe it is just flashy, but not really something to trade on. That is just my opinion and am happy to be taught something different.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old June 15th, 2015, 05:39 PM   #434 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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Narcissus View Post
Hi FT71,

You rock.

Your style of teaching - relating trading with other aspects of life - is brilliant. It's quite rare to find a person like you with Talent yet Humble & Generous. I learnt a lot from your gracious free teaching and even more from your paid webinars.

It's a shame that I am not in a position to become stage 5 client to get more direct feedback from you as I live in BC, Canada.

I am considering switching from Ninja to Investor RT and begin to atleast use your charts. It's not an easy decision though as I like Ninja's ecosystem and my preferred tools like JigSaw and Rancho.

Is there a way to have your guidance and support without having an account with stage 5? Or atleast access & learn from your feedback to other stage 5 traders? I viewed 3 such videos from your website FT71 and they are priceless!

Thanks for your kind words.

It is difficult to offer any real help by just looking from the outside in. That is what I was trying to do to help people back in 2009 and 2010 and is the key reason why I wanted to be part of creating Stage 5 Trading. Also, there is just a tremendous tax on my time, so the goal is to have a community of people that learns and then helps others (Our chat room is called Traders Helping Traders not FT Helping Traders for this reason).

You may be able to participate in the Trader Development Program when it is ready. It will be a bit of time before it is though. It is meant only for those who really want to do this as professionals and are committed. This is a way for me to make what I'm doing as accessible as possible.

It is too bad that Canada is so restrictive. In helping their brokerage industry, they are hurting traders, in my opinion.

Best,
FT71

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old June 15th, 2015, 05:53 PM   #435 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
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Futures Edge on FIO

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mabr0408 View Post
Hi FT,

I am importing my zig zag study into excel on 60 minute chart. I had the zig zag setting at 4 ticks. I then proceeded to take the average absolute value of the ZZ change to get a rotation of around 21 points. Does this average rotation size relative to the timeframe seem correct or am i missing something?


If someone else can help too that knows the answer feel free to jump in.

Thanks.

Ok. So I have a few comments:
  1. You are using 24 hours for the study. Will you be trading during the 24 hours?
  2. If not, then you should study the time frame you are trading in
  3. Doing an average is not useful and is very deceptive in trading. Averages assume that the distribution is gaussian. In real life, it rarely ever is. Instead, you need to find the mode and then the 1 & 2 standard deviations. I have attached an image to show you something more useful

If your statistical study question is, "what is the 'normal' zigzag rotation on a 24 hr 60 min chart with up and down rotations separated?" then your answer is in the image and is shaded in green with the prevalent (most common or mode) rotation shown in red. The orange shows the 2nd standard deviation or what is happening in this data set 95.45% of the samples.

Here is the image explanation:

Normal up rotations are between 2 and 7 points inclusive. Unusual rotation starts above 8 pts inclusive
Normal down rotations are between -1 and -6 points inclusive. Unusual down rotations start above -7 pts inclusive

Because you included the overnight trading session, your most common rotation size is +3 pts and -2 pts.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Hope that all make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old July 30th, 2015, 07:01 AM   #436 (permalink)
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Posts: 21 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 10 received

trade management

Hi FT thanks for your last reply...I have one additional question that i have been struggling with over the last several months so maybe you can shed some light on the best approach for my situation:

I typically do not trade anything greater than 2 contracts so campaigning or scaling at 1-2 points to get my theoretical avg increased does not seem like the best approach for the amount of size i trade ATM. As a result, i have implemented a trailng stop strategy based upon multiple timeframe analysis. Typically, i will start with a 1 lot then add to the position if it is going with me then i'll look to scale my initial position at locations such as HOD or LOD/IB/OS etc. (fairly subjective scales which is a concern). THe vast majority of time my first scale is not done until i can at least get an add on my position. The second half of position is managed on 5 min timeframe using a form of candles i have found useful and a more systematic approach. The question really is: do you think this approach can be improved upon with my initial position? Would you suggest implementing some type of autobreakeven when product gets to x amount so my initial entry is protected?

I should note: I use fairly systematic stop sizes for a majority of entries but will vary stop amounts slightly on certain trades depending upon velocity of moves and adjust risk accordingly.

Thanks again for all your help.


Last edited by mabr0408; July 30th, 2015 at 07:56 AM.
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Old August 4th, 2015, 01:04 PM   #437 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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Trade Wisdom Segment

Hello Traders,

I have been releasing a #TradeWisdom segment every Wednesday on my YouTube channel and it occurred to me that I should be posting a copy here for this thread. It might generate questions or give you ideas on how to get past certain hurdles.

There have been 6 episodes so far. They are very short and worth watching.

Here are the previous 5:



The prior segments can be found here:

Episode 1: (starts 12 minutes in) Multi-Tasking and Focus During Crucial Trading Times


Episode 2: Champion On Sim but Trading On Whim


Episode 3: (starts 11 mins in) A Gamble In Every Trade


Episode 4: (starts 13 mins in) Streaks, Your Attitude and Vibration


Episode 5: Rough Patches

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old August 4th, 2015, 01:09 PM   #438 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
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Posts: 229 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 48 given, 746 received


mabr0408 View Post
Hi FT thanks for your last reply...I have one additional question that i have been struggling with over the last several months so maybe you can shed some light on the best approach for my situation:

I typically do not trade anything greater than 2 contracts so campaigning or scaling at 1-2 points to get my theoretical avg increased does not seem like the best approach for the amount of size i trade ATM. As a result, i have implemented a trailng stop strategy based upon multiple timeframe analysis. Typically, i will start with a 1 lot then add to the position if it is going with me then i'll look to scale my initial position at locations such as HOD or LOD/IB/OS etc. (fairly subjective scales which is a concern). THe vast majority of time my first scale is not done until i can at least get an add on my position. The second half of position is managed on 5 min timeframe using a form of candles i have found useful and a more systematic approach. The question really is: do you think this approach can be improved upon with my initial position? Would you suggest implementing some type of autobreakeven when product gets to x amount so my initial entry is protected?

I should note: I use fairly systematic stop sizes for a majority of entries but will vary stop amounts slightly on certain trades depending upon velocity of moves and adjust risk accordingly.

Thanks again for all your help.

You can campaign with 2 contracts because you can keep adding to the first core contract and scaling out as it breaks out of obstacles. However, it is really key to make sure that you always know where your exit point is if the market turns. I think your strategy sounds pretty substantial.

My preference is that you continue to actively manage the position as you have been. HOWEVER.....I'm making a big assumption that you are disciplined and in fact do what you plan to do. This approach is a disaster, in my experience, if you allow yourself to bend your rules here and there. Overall, you are trading the way a prop trader would trade. Prop traders stay active with trade management and don't resign the position to a preset hard stop.

Always base your overall stop size on the average price of the position once you added the 2nd lot. It would be great if you had a sample of live S5 Trade Analyzer output to look at the cold hard stats.

Good luck with it.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old August 5th, 2015, 06:09 PM   #439 (permalink)
Elite Member
Minneapolis, MN
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 21 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 10 received


FuturesTrader71 View Post
You can campaign with 2 contracts because you can keep adding to the first core contract and scaling out as it breaks out of obstacles. However, it is really key to make sure that you always know where your exit point is if the market turns. I think your strategy sounds pretty substantial.

My preference is that you continue to actively manage the position as you have been. HOWEVER.....I'm making a big assumption that you are disciplined and in fact do what you plan to do. This approach is a disaster, in my experience, if you allow yourself to bend your rules here and there. Overall, you are trading the way a prop trader would trade. Prop traders stay active with trade management and don't resign the position to a preset hard stop.

Always base your overall stop size on the average price of the position once you added the 2nd lot. It would be great if you had a sample of live S5 Trade Analyzer output to look at the cold hard stats.

Good luck with it.

thanks FT for the reply...grateful for your generosity throughout the years.

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Old August 6th, 2015, 12:45 PM   #440 (permalink)
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FuturesTrader71 View Post
Hello Traders,

I have been releasing a #TradeWisdom segment every Wednesday on my YouTube channel and it occurred to me that I should be posting a copy here for this thread. It might generate questions or give you ideas on how to get past certain hurdles.

There have been 6 episodes so far. They are very short and worth watching.

Thanks Morad! I really enjoyed watching these segments, and I look forward to watching more.

Do you have any words of wisdom on handling winning streaks? I have experienced several during my nearly 2 year career as a trader, and I wasn't sure how best to handle them. I noticed that I get feelings of elation, combined with fear of becoming overconfident in my trading. Things are a bit different during my current winning streak because I have lost a lot of money previously (so I feel like I deserve to win my money back) and I am currently trading sim until I build up a solid track record and accumulate a larger trading stake from my second job. However, the feelings I described mostly apply to my previous winning streaks with real money, albeit there weren't many big winning days, mostly many days of small wins.

BTW, any updates on the new training program?

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