Started: March 7th, 2013 (02:35 PM) by Big Mike Views / Replies: 110,859 / 522 Last Reply: March 9th, 2017 (11:26 PM) Attachments: 19

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19

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

Joshua1984
 I really appreciate you taking the time to answer these questions. I have another. Let's say I have a 65% win rate trading CL with 2 lots. I have an 8-tick scale and a 12-tick scale and a 15-tick stop. On my winning trades I very often see much greater favorable excursion potential. The question is: when does it become reasonable to use a runner? I received the book "Coaching the Mental Game" today and was very pleased by the note. Thanks again to both you and Mike. Cheers, Josh

Hey Josh,

Based on the numbers you provide, your Expectancy = (0.65x20 ticks) - (0.35x30 ticks) = 2.5 ticks per trade. Assuming you are paying around \$5 per turn on that product, then you are giving up another 0.5 ticks per trade. This puts your net expectancy at 2 ticks per trade.

At that expectancy, it wouldn't be so bad if you had plenty of opportunities in a day to stay ahead of your losses. If your expectancy stays consistent, then you would size up and begin to see a return on your time that is worthwhile. This is more of a scalping/very short term expectancy.

Now, if every once in a while you are able to allow a runner to go for say 2x an average rotation on a 1 min for 30 ticks and that happened in 10% of your winners, then your expectancy looks like (0.1x30 ticks)+(0.55x20 ticks)-(0.35x30 ticks) = 3.5 ticks or a 40% improvement in your expectancy. This is why I scale out. This assumes that you move your stop to entry once the scale happens at 8 ticks and so your loss figures remain the same.

Does that make sense? Now you are digging into the nuances of trade management.

FT71

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
 The following 7 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

 Ft71 Using the sports analogy and deliberate practice model. Any drills a trader could isolate or work on to improve their trading? Like the batting cage, shootings dry fire, golf putting, punching mitts, shadow boxing, etc. building that inuition and subconscious competence. I heard you and Dionysous mention DOM reading at speed(I've yet to use the DOM, and will eventually). Risk seems to be the largest issue for most people, retail or prop. Maybe the marble game 2-3x week. And. Or the market at speed in replay while identifing risk or looking for patterns? Homework levels seem to be the other ...maybe HYPO1,2,3 multiple markets per day then check back. Relating price action to Hvns and Lvns. Maybe a mental though process. How would you structure such? Frequency? Intensity? Duration? I am highly impressed by Stage5 commitment to helping their traders and am going to contact them this week because of it.

Hey Kahuna,

I won't get into exercises here. This will be covered in depth soon. Exercises can be taken out of context and require a foundation first.

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

bathrobe
 Hi FT, Looooong time twitter follower, I am having trouble with a standardized date (to use across the board) to roll Treasury futures because the pace of the roll is always different and for instance during this roll, some treasuries had a later or slower roll while others had an earlier or quicker one. The indexes are much easier with with the second Thursday of H,M,U and Z, unless I am missing something. What day do you use? Thanks, Chris

I go with the notice I receive from CME and my clearing firm. It has been shifting lately. A good indication is to also put the current and next month on a quoteboard and track volume as was suggested by others.

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

bathrobe
 Thank you, I should have added I am trying to use a specific date so the data will be adjusted, this is a feature you have to build into continuous charts in TT, which is what I am asking for, it is built in to IQ Feed. Thank you, Chris

Ok. I see your issue now. I generally go with the last day Friday prior to the expiration month. For example, on Friday, August 29th, 2014, Z4 become front month and U4 became second month.

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

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## What value do you place on the webinars on FIO?

arnie
 Hi @FuturesTrader71 One question regarding S5T datafeed, OEC. You advertise that OEC is unfiltered but you continue to use IQFeed, like many of your clients. If you offer an unfiltered datafeed, why continuing to use a paid one when both should be identical since they are unfiltered? One might think that you not trust OEC. Regards.

Hey Arnie,

The data feed from the S5 Trader platform is unfiltered and has been tested against other broker feeds. However, a broker feed is NOT intended to be a great feed for accurate tick data no matter who the broker is. The reason for this has to do with technology than anything else. The API that manages orders and quotes are not the same as the type of technology that you would have providing your data from DTN IQFeed or others. It would take a lot of typing to explain it, but broker feeds are not ideal to power charts in real time. The S5 Trader's feed is as good as we have tested before we stood behind it.

This is in addition to the fact that you don't get much historical data with a broker feed as well as cash indices like Vix, Transports, etc.

Your comment regarding me not trusting the data is not true. I simply don't compromise when it comes to data and so I go with DTN IQFeed and have for a long time. Their data is automatically equalized and adjusted, I get 120 days of tick data and unlimited 1 min data, etc.

If my data is what I'm trading from, then I choose to get as comprehensive a data set as possible. The S5 Trader feed is not designed for that and shouldn't be. Imagine what it would be like for someone to be downloading 120 days of tick data on the ES while you are trading on that same server. Not fun!

I hope that makes sense.

Best,
FT71

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
 The following 3 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:

Chicago, IL, USA

Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC

Posts: 229 since Feb 2012

Big Mike
 I am not Morad, but there is more to a data feed than unfiltered data. For example, breadth tickers, historical data, continuous contracts, etc. Mike

Thanks!

 Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread

 March 31st, 2015, 06:29 PM #427 (permalink) Elite Member new york, ny   Futures Experience: Intermediate Platform: ninjatrader Favorite Futures: stocks, options   Posts: 80 since Nov 2012 Thanks: 6 given, 4 received Hi, do you have any particular strategy for the 3pm to 4pm hour? was pretty volatile today. Do you think the imbalances work?

 April 1st, 2015, 10:07 AM #428 (permalink) Elite Member new york, ny   Futures Experience: Intermediate Platform: ninjatrader Favorite Futures: stocks, options   Posts: 80 since Nov 2012 Thanks: 6 given, 4 received Hi, sir one more follow up question about your videos - awesome stuff and excellent calls! When you say the market will go up to settle overnight inventories on the short side, you generally mean in the first ten minutes after the 930 open correct? I have noticed sometimes it takes a shorter amount of time then it starts moving in the direction you say overall.

 The following user says Thank You to Narcissus for this post:

 May 1st, 2015, 04:56 AM #430 (permalink) Elite Member Norwich, UK   Futures Experience: Beginner Platform: Broker Provided Broker/Data: Stage5/OEC Favorite Futures: M6E     Posts: 136 since Jul 2012 Thanks: 79 given, 54 received great webinar! Hi FT71, I appreciate your effort & time you put in S5, it's a nice objective and very rewarding work. @Big Mike, Only kind thoughts for what you do and don't question your motives for this forum, for trying to change something and for trying to make a difference. I know you put a lot of passion here and having your haters is normal on the success path don't get intimidated by threats.

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