Yes, I would like to see that too and I agree $5k is a lot. I'm not signed up but would be willing to go with someone else although that might not be easy to accomplish. I also think he will be providing his recorded videos at a different prince.
I´ve read the entire blog twice including the comments. The was nothing there but the a simple moving average setup and like Prtester wrote, on some days it rocks (trendish days) and on other days it sucks. Instead of showing the days that suck he post the setups in a different market where it worked.
He talks alot about orderflow. But what is orderflow? The skill to "forcast" based on how orders enter the market. So what tools does he use?
33/99 MA = Pure price action
Mom dots = pure price action
CCI = Pure price action
Rangebars = Pure price action Delta = bid/ask Cum delta = bid/ask
Where is the volume and the time component?
Lets start with combining delta with rangebars, what does it tell u? If price moves up and positive delta is increasing on the move up, is that bullish or breash? EL says bullish but i dont agree all the time. It shows it takes more and more effort to move price a certain amount of ticks (rangebar). More effort but less effect means more limit sellers entering the market. Thats why many times, his "perfect setups" are good fades or at least u can expect a nice pullback before they take off.
Second "orderflow" tool is a 9 moving average of cum delta. Imo that is not reading orderflow. That is a derivat of orderflow. U manipulate the market generated data to get your signals.
I backtested this "system" a lot and even traded it with real money. And it does not have a high winrate at all. And it constantly takes 1-2p heat before it takes of, IF it takes of (the reason is the exhaustion u get when the entry is triggered). Backtesting it I got the same result just using rangebars, 33 sma and the slope of the sma for direction...
I´m sure his goal has been to generate enough interest in his blog to get customers for his expensive education. And he did a great job there. He started blogging just in october 2009 and then started writing about his blog on some forums i follow.
He offers a 90 day education and mentoring service for 5000 usd. That kind of commitment takes a lot of time away from his trading. If he is a pro trader that almost never misses like he claims, why not just put on a 100 lot and make real money during this time? There are just to many things not adding up for me to beleive he even is profitable.
The following 5 users say Thank You to fiki for this post:
I found his blog end of last year after I read one of his posts on Trader Laboratory urging people to take a look at his blog where he was teaching his daughter to trade. And even I that first post he added “nothing for sale”. A mantra he has repeated over and over again until he did have something to sell.
I don’t know. I work in the business and it has made me a skeptic to stuff like this. I see traders and fund managers on a daily basis. And let me tell u, the world of finance is a shady world. I´m the compliance guy, so I know. When our telemarketing calls potential clients they always start off with: we have “nothing for sale”, we are trying to help you.
When it comes to him flipping the markets, I´ve seen it many times. As I have seen him “skip” perfect setups but taking the next crappy one that ended up as the winner.
But it doesn´t matter. If your found his blog helpful and you are now making winning trades, then all is good. But I would be cautious before paying 5000usd for his wisdom.
Btw, for me delta is not volume. It shows me more direction of trade and conviction. Since it is buyers-sellers it can be 0 even if total volume is huge.
The following 4 users say Thank You to fiki for this post:
you have a point and I agree that it's a little suspicious and I'm not in this business as much as you are.
I also agree that he doesn't share much and I've also said it to him directly but he always gives the same answer: "everything you need is on the blog, you just have to put in the work". And it seems like we both did the work! How did you backtest it?
For the last few months he posts only ES trades, on trend days and on choppy days too, so I have to disagree with you flipping markets theory.
Many people have the same opinion we do and everything can be questionable.
One last thing, "delta" and "total" are both based on volume but yes, delta shows you more direction and conviction.
I also used to follow his blog until he posted something about his father having created a winning roulette system. When someone questioned this, he went on defending it in the comments by telling how he believes money managment can provide an edge where no edge exists.
Its funny how this shows how he clearly has no clue about money mangment as all such systems in roulette would just be taking a lot of small wins until you ultimately blow up.
Also if anyone have seen his long term investment blog, he has a system which is based on "the statistic that 90% or so of options expire worthless." If I had to guess this system would be pretty close to his dads roulett system, lots of small gains before the big loss.
Tried to ask for any kind of proof that he was actually a profitable trader, but he just ignored me.
Would never waste any time on his training even if it was free and hate myself for all the time I have spent trying to figure out his "setups".
The following 4 users say Thank You to bluerosetc for this post:
If his posted results are accurate (multiple points per day with very little drawdown) he could quickly earn millions of dollars trading 50-100 contracts per trade. Who would bother to do training for cash if they had those kind of results? Anyone in that position that still wanted to give something back would have the trainees send their 5k *directly* to charity.
Something just doesn't add up. It reminds me of the Jack Hershey threads on Elitetrader. A very seductive pitch for discretionary trading in the index futures without any real substance to back it up.
I saw this post on the Electronic Local Blog as well. Obviously, you cannot create a winning roulette system without cheating, as the casino always has an edge. If somebody else has an edge you should not bet, and no money management system in the world can help you here. Actually if you do not have an edge
- the best thing is not to bet,
- the second best thing is to bet all at once, and if you are lucky you win, although the probability is < 50%,
- the worst thing is any money management system that keeps you in the game for a longer time, because the longer you play, the higher the probability to lose it all!
So Tom is terribly wrong with his application of money management to roulette. But this mistake is no proof that his trading approach does not work. Actually, I like some elements of his trading style
- his charts are not clustered, but he has just two moving averages
- he uses two CCIs as trend filters
- he looks at bid and ask traded volume
- he looks at Keltner Channels to avoid "Greater Fool Trades"
- he takes a few trades per day only