You gave an interesting and honest analysis. I have an indicator that gives a sell signal when the 13 ema crosses below the 20 ema (on IWM). It gave a sell signal on the 3 minute chart at the beginning of the session. I wonder what is the use of market profile if it can't make money on a strong down trend day ?
Last edited by jodistrict; March 26th, 2015 at 12:27 AM.
I am sure you heard this from experienced traders before. I wish trading signals are as simple as EMA's cross over. Yes, it works great on a trend day but they don't happen very often. I got chopped out royally on range days with EMA based entries. Even when you get into a good trade, it's damn hard to hang on to winning trades for a number of psychological reasons.
I like Market Profile because it gives you potential areas for reversal or breakout so that you aren't glued to your screen for the entire season & it's easier to pick your stops/targets. Morover, my personality is to make sense of market movement i.e why is it moving up or down. I don't believe in random movements anymore. I think there is a method in this market madness.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Narcissus for this post:
I think you have missed the point raised by the previous poster - i.e 'What is the point of Market Profile if it can't make money on a strong down trend day?'. I do not think it was about MP vs EMA crossovers.
You also said - 'Even when you get into a good trade, it's damn hard to hang on to winning trades for a number of psychological reasons'. My question is - if this JPJ is such a great Market Profiler and trader, why is he unable to hold trades for large targets in a very strong trend day? Surely he has been trading long enough to be able to identify a good trend day earlier than us mere mortals.
Maybe you should look for another teacher, or probably try and come up with your own way of reading a price chart.
Please note that these are my observations during the last 2 days only as a trial member with no payment.
I don't know whether he is a great trader or not but appears to understand Market Profile well and taught it reasonable well in a unique style. As I mentioned, his analysis of which direction market will move in various scenarios were spot on. i.e if 68.50 is tested, then next stop will be 60 etc etc. However, I myself have done that countless time and yet lost money.
After listeneing to few gurus/teachers (thankfully only 2 so far, both good- Elder and Barry Taylor) I now know that I have to find a style that works for ME. I agree with you when say I have to come up with my own way of reading a price chart but to achieve THAT, I must observe a handful of logical and somtimes nonsensical approach. JPJ's approach looked logical to me. Whether he makes money or not is somewhat irrelevant b'cas I won't be able to replicate anyone's method. Even the well respected & very successful traders' (tigertrader and BigMike) methodology don't fit my personality IMHO.
I think your observations of the trial are useful to traders. It would be interesting to see your conclusions after the final two days. It kind of confirms for me what I already suspected. The market profile is great for giving after the fact explanations of what happened but not that useful for making trading decisions. According to your description, on a strong down trend day an experienced market profile trader essentially ended up scalping and the market profile didn't give him the confidence to hold a position. In fact, he was trying to fade the move.
Today JPJ had a winner of 8 points, long from lower value area to higher. He wanted to add more positions after it went against him (adding to a loser) but didn't get filled in as he went up. I didn't watch them but I believe him.
However, his style of entering on breakouts and at extremes doesn't suit my style. I was hoping for him to use Delta or Foot Print to justify such risky entries but didn't see much of that either. I am also less convinced about his explanation for market action at key areas of acceptance and rejection. He probably has better answers for paid members but to risk 500 and possibly upto 1500 dollars to find that out doesn't sound like a good risk reward for me. Boy, I think like a trader now.
So, NOT SIGNING up for JPJ. May consider after a month or two.
Right now, I am happy with free material from FT71.
Last edited by Narcissus; March 27th, 2015 at 09:44 AM.