Thanks I appreciate the feedback. Good info. It's nice to hear that you agree it's fairly accurate. I was impressed in that they show losses as well as wins. Red lights always go off when vendors show nothing but wins. I have always been skeptical of cycles, especially Gann. I know they exist in life, but predicting them has never show much promise, IMO> The reason I am considering them is that the principle is logical, to me at least.
Peter, educational trading vendor marketing 101 calls for turning a negative trade into a positive with esoteric tradingbabble. It makes the vendor sound like he knows more than the person they are trying to fleece. And human nature is such that we tend to look up to and perhaps admire those who we think no more than we do.
Take a free trial if you have the time, but never reached into your pocket to buy this.
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I see inversions differently and don't think we should throw out a method because they occur. When I see inversions I don't see it as an issue. But they point to a more complex system.
After studying market cycles for a while in effort to see if there's any repeating patterns I believe that there are predictable and repeating patterns or cycles but they are complex. And this conclusion didn't come about easily since it has so many ramifications and goes against my scientific and engineering based training. Once I did come around now I see the market and other things in nature differently. What look like pure randomness is more like chaos that has a more predictable underline structure.
Inversions in the market cycle is one of the effects that hide the cycle pattern. One place that inversions appears is in Welles Willder's "The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order of all Markets". A great starting point for studying market cycles. The more you dig into market cycles the deeper the rabbit hole goes, far beyond Wilder's work. My trading partner has a trading system that uses predictive methods and they do work. With out seeing this first hand I wouldn't have believed it.
As stated before I do believe it's possible to predict when these inversion will happen. Also you don't need to predict when the inversion will happen if you combine it with other TA signals. So when a system works a lot and then doesn't due to a inversion don't despair and say it's no good. The indicator isn't accounting for these natural repeatable inversions that need to be accounted for separately.
Sometimes I feel like Moulder on X files. I want to believe, but when I hear about Gann and no proof I just go yeah right.
Flux seemed more logical, advanced data mining not really prediction like Gann or EW.
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affordable alternatives for trading/experimenting with forecast indicators
Glad to read all the good critiques here. I think there's definitely a new trend in retail trading software to include forecasting techniques, and I'm sure it'll slowly become a standard in most charting packages. I would definitely save my money and not go "all in" on some indicators that we could later create as a team and will only get better and cheaper very soon. In the meantime however, there are a few very affordable alternatives that may have some advantages over the flux:
1. Cycle Pack by Chris at sr-analyst. Very cool stuff, forecasts turning points with predicted down swing/ up swing, based partially on Hurst cycle theory and signal processing. And, $30/month.
2. MAP included in Ensign Charting Software, at Ensign. There are very interesting articles about this unique Neural Net forecasting engine. It was supposedly developed originally by a genius weapon's scientist Dennis Regan, who supposedly went about creating an out of the box neural network forecasting solution involving a perspective similar to how a bat uses frequencies to get a sonic image of an environment. Later it was revived & attempted to be backward engineered by Larry Pesavento and a head guy at Ensign. Now it's included in their software package. Cost $45/month. Interestingly, the MAP forecast requires optimally 50-60 days of past data...just like Flux. Definitely some LOLs when you realize that GFTForex is reselling the same forecasting engine for $500/month PER CURRENCY pair, and they call it "Foresight AI"!!! And this guy Tom, is reselling it for $99/month at The Market Maps: Dow, FTSE, Dax and NASDAQ. Good elitetrader dialogue about the MAP's lineage here: Forums - "Market Map" - anybody using it ?
Check out screenshots of the MAP at the ensign site and themarketmap site, has all the same ideas, sync predictions, inversions...etc...
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From a different angle, Jason Goepfert over at sentimenTrader - Independent Sentiment Research for the Stock and Bond Markets, has some intraday timing models based on market internals and intermarket stuff. Their fastest model updates every 30 min, so it's really good for the intraday extremes. You can see the page about his timing models here: Models
I had a great conversation with a fund manager in California who has all of his money personally invested in Jason's market timing signals. It's $25/month. Combining a cycles/neural forecast with the market internal timing models would definitely put more probabilities in your favor for understanding potential inversions and whether a cycle is tradeable or not. This combo would be lethal in my humble opinion, way better than an expensive indicator package alone and at roughly 1/100th of the cost. Let's all buy low and sell high in the markets. Jason is a really great guy and their team is very approachable for phone conversation about their tools.
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