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I agree with Fat Tails 100%. I was looking at the ZN and ES action Friday. Both are very technical, but ZN is just so slow and boring at times and then hit u with a alot of action within a very short period. I feel that most of the ZN moves are very fast and sporadic....like Fat Tails described "watching paint dry".
I love the ES, but sometimes it gets really slow like this past Wed and Thurs where the market just ranged within 3pts for most of the day. Its these kind of days that makes me want to explore other instruments only to end up right back at ES.
You have to find an instrument that suits your personality. Some people will over trade if the instrument moves too slow. Some people prefer it moves slow. Just depends on personality, experience, methodology, etc.
If you think that a slower instrument might suit your style, I think you can also consider trading two (similarly slow) instruments simultaneously. But I would not trade two fast moving markets simultaneously if you are a scalper.
It's always about time of day (or night). ZN trades best between 7am and 9am. and most pros gravitate towards it because of how well it reads order flow. It is NEVER boring during 8:30 am releases and has tremendous leverage. ES gets fun the 1st half hour of pit, after that it is an algo slug fest. 6E rocks during London. Just adapt your trading time to the right instrument, not the other way around.
That is not easy, but the volatility and ranges of any instrument in a given day should serve as a gauge.
Trendiness, or lack of should also be helpful in deciding whether you should trade a contract.
In this case: Do you consider ES a trending instrument? Some may say so, if they have the capital to withstand the fluctuations and the large corrections. What about ZN? Do you think it trends more smoothly...this is my opinion, but in general I think so. Lastly, keep in mind that every underlying instrument could break out of its "comfort zone" so risk management and avoiding the "I know this instrument" would be appreciated
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I have looked at ZN and ZB and I have to say, I have zero idea of how this thing moves. First of all it's definitely not an intraday trader's instrument, at least lately. Second, I don't know what laws of technical analysis this instrument follows. I'm a price action based trader so maybe you need to be more quant oriented for this, or it's a spread trader's instrument perhaps? I just find total cluelessness when I analyze this thing!
Using the price action swings indicator, it looks like they move 16/32 in the direction of the main trend with 8/16 reversals. Almost each and every time. Don't be intimidated.
Have a mate that works for a prop house. He recommends the Bund, eurostoxx50 and the Zn.
I have concentrated on ZN after trying the ZN and ES together and have to say that I like it a lot.
It is a 'thick' market, meaning there are lots of orders on both sides that have to be eaten through before price moves, so it can be slow that's for sure.
But in it's defense it means that you have time to analyse and time to think. It also respects technical levels pretty well too. On the ES, because it is a thinner market, price tends to overshoot which can cause havoc for a scalper. Not to say that people don't trade it successfully though!
There is money to be made in the ZN that's for sure. I enjoy it, maybe it's a bit slow but damn the ES moves like lightning in comparison, you can be stopped out on the ES before you have a chance to go "say what?"
Any how I have trade all three of these and trade the ZB exclusively now for a two years.
The ES; I don't like the ES for a few reasons and mostly because I continually got my ass kicked...but first you need wide stops for the "stop runners" Stops are obvious and in order to stay in the position you need to be in less obvious position.
The per tick is only 12.50 and commission is 3.68RT on Ninja Full Lic. A 1 tick loss means you no need 16.18 to break even if you have a 1 tick gain you still are down 7.36 so you need at least 2 tick to break even...
The ZN has huge depth and can move on data days. The commission is 2.28 and per tick is 15.62 so after a 1 tick loss 17.90
and a 1 tick gain you are offset only 4.56 so you still need 2 ticks but actually end up with 8.78. Much better than the ES
The ZB moves twice as much as the zn and has a 2.28 commission but a 30.25 per tick pay out. So a 1 tick loss is 32.53 then a 1 tick gain is 27.97 and yes you will need 2 ticks to better than break even but you take is 25.69. Big difference.
I use the UB as a directional indicator and Jigsaw as an entry DOM. The thing about the Jigsaw DOM is that it will show you where your order is in the line up. (see pic)
The UB moves further and faster than the ZB but always in unison. The ZN can be used as a confirmation but I don't use it any more. I have boiled 4 screens down to one and trade much better for it.
My theory is the the UB and ZB are traded by big players using algo's based on the ZN movement. They use ZN as a major direction and UB and ZB to capture Alpha$$
The blue box (1L 122) means my 1 long is 122 in line
Very useful when you can see who is adding and pulling there orders.
