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30 Year Treasury Bond Futures /ZB


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30 Year Treasury Bond Futures /ZB

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  #1 (permalink)
 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
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I am a full time trader and trade the Russell 2000 RTY …. I really like how slow the /ZB moves especially the tick size as I’m a scalper 5 minute chart …. Anybody who trades /ZB is it a scalable/traceable market for a retail trader ? Thanks in advance


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  #2 (permalink)
 dsheehan87 
Chicago IL USA
 
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I trade the ZB and ZN - more recently ZB as ZN is too wild these days. For me, ZB is a bit fast for my liking, but with the ZN being predominantly fake orders at the moment (a price will clear out on for example 250 traded, yet there for 1200 contracts on the offer), it’s a safer play.

In normal times, I stick to the ZN as it’s thicker and slower and you can work a scratch or get out for a 1-2 tick loss (currently you can loose 4-5 ticks without warning). The ZB is usually slower and thicker as well.

Either ZN or ZB are scalable - I mean, you could trade 50 lots in the ZN or 25 lots in the ZB with ease, even today with the markets being so thin because of the war, etc. If you were big enough, you could trade 10,000 lots in the ZN or a few thousand lots in the ZB, but have to switch to using iceberg orders, and instead of guessing the market direction, you’d try and push it that way via various tequniques (you should know these - because that’s the way you can be a successful trader in the treasuries, knowing the game).

I scalp the order book, I use charts to determine key levels only (like previous high/low or year or monthly high/low). BTW, I’d learn the order book, as charts in the treasuries are extremely misleading. Where as the russel or ES are mostly retail, the treasures are dominated by the professionals, and they don’t use charts. ***just my advice*** But if what you are doing is working now, I wouldn’t change it.

Good luck in your trading, the treasures are the best bet IMHO

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  #3 (permalink)
 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
Platform: Ninja
Trading: ZN
 
Posts: 35 since Oct 2021
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dsheehan87 View Post
I trade the ZB and ZN - more recently ZB as ZN is too wild these days. For me, ZB is a bit fast for my liking, but with the ZN being predominantly fake orders at the moment (a price will clear out on for example 250 traded, yet there for 1200 contracts on the offer), it’s a safer play.



In normal times, I stick to the ZN as it’s thicker and slower and you can work a scratch or get out for a 1-2 tick loss (currently you can loose 4-5 ticks without warning). The ZB is usually slower and thicker as well.



Either ZN or ZB are scalable - I mean, you could trade 50 lots in the ZN or 25 lots in the ZB with ease, even today with the markets being so thin because of the war, etc. If you were big enough, you could trade 10,000 lots in the ZN or a few thousand lots in the ZB, but have to switch to using iceberg orders, and instead of guessing the market direction, you’d try and push it that way via various tequniques (you should know these - because that’s the way you can be a successful trader in the treasuries, knowing the game).



I scalp the order book, I use charts to determine key levels only (like previous high/low or year or monthly high/low). BTW, I’d learn the order book, as charts in the treasuries are extremely misleading. Where as the russel or ES are mostly retail, the treasures are dominated by the professionals, and they don’t use charts. ***just my advice*** But if what you are doing is working now, I wouldn’t change it.



Good luck in your trading, the treasures are the best bet IMHO



Thanks for the reply . I utilize ninja trader so when you say order book ? You are referring to the dom? Ninjas dom is pretty bad compared to others … any resources you could recommend in learning order book … and would tick charts be of use ? Thanks again


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  #4 (permalink)
 dsheehan87 
Chicago IL USA
 
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Nasdaq1517 View Post
Thanks for the reply . I utilize ninja trader so when you say order book ? You are referring to the dom? Ninjas dom is pretty bad compared to others … any resources you could recommend in learning order book … and would tick charts be of use ? Thanks again


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Yep the dom… I mean, the ninja dom is barebones, but you can use it to place orders and learn the order flow.

Honestly, to learn it, just watch it… there’s not many courses on the subject of any use (most still end up looking at charts). You can use the ninja dom to do that. All you really need is bids, offers, last trade quantity, and volume at price (kind of like market profile but dumbed down). Just watch it while you trade the charts, and you’ll begin to see things that you wouldn’t ordinarily (like if the market on a chart it’s going up, it’s stuck, the dom will tell you that either a) no one’s buying higher or b) the offer is absorbing all the buys (and the market may go down). Even if you use it just as another thing to watch and continue with the charts, it will help you out bug time in treasuries… many games are played by whales in the treasuries lol


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 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
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Trading: ZN
 
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dsheehan87 View Post
Yep the dom… I mean, the ninja dom is barebones, but you can use it to place orders and learn the order flow.

Honestly, to learn it, just watch it… there’s not many courses on the subject of any use (most still end up looking at charts). You can use the ninja dom to do that. All you really need is bids, offers, last trade quantity, and volume at price (kind of like market profile but dumbed down). Just watch it while you trade the charts, and you’ll begin to see things that you wouldn’t ordinarily (like if the market on a chart it’s going up, it’s stuck, the dom will tell you that either a) no one’s buying higher or b) the offer is absorbing all the buys (and the market may go down). Even if you use it just as another thing to watch and continue with the charts, it will help you out bug time in treasuries… many games are played by whales in the treasuries lol


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I really appreciate the insight I’ll give it a go this week … I try to keep my trading simple so if it means getting away from indicators and just learning the personality of the price I am all for it! Thanks again


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 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
Platform: Ninja
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Posts: 35 since Oct 2021
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After reviewing both products I’m going to go with ZN instead … the ticks are a little easier to handle and extremely liquid and scaleable … really appreciate your insight I’ll be posting a trading journal of all the trades starting Monday to the site. Thanks again


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  #7 (permalink)
 matthew28 
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Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
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Nasdaq1517 View Post
… any resources you could recommend in learning

Here's a page of videos that might be helpful.
https://www.nobsdaytrading.com/videos/

John Grady/NoBSDayTrading also has a thread here in Trading Vendors and Reviews.
His Basic Course is good with a lot of content for very little money. It is mostly based on the Treasuries.

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 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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Somewhat related to learning about the order book:

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-bank-employee-pleads-guilty-manipulating-us-treasury-securities-prices

>>Many of Forbes’s genuine orders were “iceberg” orders, meaning that only a portion of the order’s full size was visible to other market participants at any given time, whereas all of Forbes’s spoof orders were fully displayed. The purpose of Forbes’s “spoof orders” was to create a false appearance of market depth and activity in order to mislead other traders, and to artificially raise or depress the prevailing market price so that Forbes could execute his genuine orders more easily or more profitably. <<

So, if you can't rely on the truthfulness of the order book can you develop a successful trading system that relies on the order book?

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  #9 (permalink)
 Schnook 
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glennts View Post
So, if you can't rely on the truthfulness of the order book can you develop a successful trading system that relies on the order book?

Focus more on what actually trades than what is being displayed in the order book. That is, watch the footprints - the traded bid and offer side volume at each price level - for clues as to near-term direction. Spoofed orders can be easily detected this way. For example, if the ZB is showing 500 lots on the bid at 28, but only 50 trade there and it goes 28 offer, there may be more for sale behind it.

There are quite a few threads and webinars here that go into much greater detail on this subject. For example, check out the link @matthew28 shared in the post immediately preceding yours.

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 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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@Snook Trading treasuries, where as you say events can be observed playing out over minutes, sounds like trading futures in the 80's and 90's where the other side was another human and it was a reasonable level playing field. Where as today the other side is likely to be the Borg doing what ever is necessary to assimilate your account.

Know Thine Enemy.

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