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Is ZN tradable these days?


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Is ZN tradable these days?

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  #1 (permalink)
Omaha, NE/USA
 
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johny1971's Avatar
 
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Haven't seen the DOM in almost a year. I looked at a chart from past 20 days and it seems it looks like it did 12 months ago. My question: Does the ZN currently have the volatitliy to trade off the DOM?

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  #2 (permalink)
Revali, EE
 
 
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Regarding ZN volatility: If you compare the current volatility with historical volatility vs last year Oct. or vs last US election in 2016, we are roughly in the same range.

To answer your vague question, my answer is simply no.

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  #3 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
 
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I think ZN is only tradable if I trade using my news trading system only, because only then, it shows some volatility. Other than that, I consider ES to be (almost) dead too these days, so forget about ZN!

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  #4 (permalink)
Espaņa Madrid
 
 
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Hi i think you can trade the zn but using the dom your results can be bad because i dont se god volume of order
But alwais you ca trade that you want

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  #5 (permalink)
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johny1971 View Post
Does the ZN currently have the volatitliy to trade off the DOM?

I wouldn't associate the 10yr Note with volatility. Do you mean volume?
I don't trade the ten year but I opened a DOM (on Tradovate replay), for yesterday, Friday at 9:45am Eastern, so almost an hour and a half into the traditional Treasuries session, and 15 minutes after the RTH stock market open.
You can see the orderbook depth and the volume profile is for the full ETH session range from the previous day's CME session start up to that point.

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  #6 (permalink)
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The ZN will always be one of the most traded contracts (worldwide) and it moves since years/decades the same way. If you think there is less vola, you can switch to ultra-bonds, there is more action, but the ZN moves like it did 3, 5 or 10 years ago. Really fast moves you only will see during NFP numbers or Trump tweets or similar events.

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  #7 (permalink)
Omaha, NE/USA
 
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This is all good info.

I am trying to discover if the ZN still has 3-6 tick moves in 10-30 minutes or so currently.

I understand it is in a range, and this is ok, it doesn't fluctuate like an index. The volume point is a good one, based on the volume profile Matthew28 shows, that example shows a not so good day for picking up ticks given it is stuck in an area and there isn't many peaks and troughs. And, yes, NFP can be kick butt.

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  #8 (permalink)
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How are u looking to trade? Momentum? Mean reversion? Breakout? There are others that will give u that 3-6 tick like TN or if u want to go big UB


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  #9 (permalink)
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johny1971 View Post
My question: Does the ZN currently have the volatitliy to trade off the DOM?

I suspect that only you can answer that question for yourself. But from my own perspective, I find that 1, the DOM conveys a lot less useful information in Treasury futures as it does in, say metals or grains, and 2, the bond obviously has much better intraday ranges / volatility than tens. So when I trade rates outright its usually in ZB and almost always based on something other than what I'm seeing on the DOM.

Now I have no idea how you trade, but just to expand a bit, the volumes in ZN are such a small part of the overall rates complex that whatever you see on the DOM or a footprint chart will be dwarfed by much larger flows in cash treasuries, swaps, the eurodollars complex, or even just other parts of the treasury curve. Moreover there's a lot of spreading (curves and calendars) and hedging that goes through in futures, and unless you're able to identify and filter out some of these noisy, non-directional flows then you're probably going to have an even more difficult time gleaning anything of value from the DOM in ZN.

These are just my personal observations, of course, but I've traded more than my share of bonds over the years.

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  #10 (permalink)
Legendary Capt. Johnny Jameson
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Schnook View Post
I suspect that only you can answer that question for yourself. But from my own perspective, I find that 1, the DOM conveys a lot less useful information in Treasury futures as it does in, say metals or grains, and 2, the bond obviously has much better intraday ranges / volatility than tens. So when I trade rates outright its usually in ZB and almost always based on something other than what I'm seeing on the DOM.

Now I have no idea how you trade, but just to expand a bit, the volumes in ZN are such a small part of the overall rates complex that whatever you see on the DOM or a footprint chart will be dwarfed by much larger flows in cash treasuries, swaps, the eurodollars complex, or even just other parts of the treasury curve. Moreover there's a lot of spreading (curves and calendars) and hedging that goes through in futures, and unless you're able to identify and filter out some of these noisy, non-directional flows then you're probably going to have an even more difficult time gleaning anything of value from the DOM in ZN.

These are just my personal observations, of course, but I've traded more than my share of bonds over the years.

...and this is why I stopped trading ten years....I usually trade the bonds as a hedge against my indexes... @Schnook couldn't have said it any better!

cheers

Johnny

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