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Sydney, Australia
Experience: Master
Platform: TT & CQG
Trading: Bonds of every country (AU/UK/CA/EU/US), Commodities (Soft, Hard, Metals), Currencies,
Posts: 24 since Oct 2016
Thanks Given: 11
Thanks Received: 132
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2018 is the year of crazy announcements: Drake has an unwanted kid from a pornstar.
I wouldn't bet against the criminal investigation appearing to target Donald Trump. The potential moves start when the scandal hits the media.
I decided to analyze what happened to Bonds during every impeachment we can find.
1. Andrew Johnson (1868)
S&P500 went up over 7 months
U.S. 10-year bond went up 30bp
2. Richard Nixon / Watergate (1972)
Bonds dropped 150bp from start to finish.
It took a 2.5-year scandal for this sh*t show to end. And when Nixon finally resigned, Bonds retracted 40% of the move. They priced in what the successors policies might do (less inflationary).
3. Bill Clinton / Lewinsky Scandal (1997)
Clintons confession made Bond prices rally 100bp (from 5.4% to 4.2% yield) in 3-months, before retracing 100% of the move in the next 3-months.
The scandal went for a full year.
Recent Examples (Brazil + Korea)
During each of the impeachments before, we had a lot of other economic policies and influences that could've impacted the prices back in those days. In recent times..
South Korea impeachment = Zero net change over 6-8 months but moved around 20bp
Brazil impeachment = Equities rallied on the impeachment (because the President was so corrupt).
Conclusion
Market volatility goes up from historical averages, but not to crisis levels.
Bonds always move, but it's not clear which way they will move first. And there's always a retracement when they finally resign.
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