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Outcry market opened a shade above Thursday's closing, explored the high side of its range, making its HoD at 124'.225 and then prices decreased gently to reach LoD (124.'135) at closing.
At 124.'180, POC is a shade higher than Wednesday.
Daily candle is therefore small and red.
In TU 4H, all ICHIMOKU indicators are, not suprisingly, bearish.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a smaller downard channel, included in the bigger one.
MA 23 and 44 are decreasing in paralell, clearly showing the trend.
In case of a rebound on present levels, first resistance is MA 23 (124.175) then HoD (124'.225).
Above I do see MA 44 level and former support (124'.265-275) and finally 125'000 area (resistance oblique of the big downard channel.
On a broader picture, we can see on this 1 day globex graph that July 31 low (124.070) was visited this morning.
On the support side we therefore have such level then I do not see much before S3 (123.060).
Some important US figures this morning together with the week-end coming and its uncertainties.
I would not be surprised to see a rebound on S2, low of July 31st level (124.060-070).
Outcry market opened with a downard gap, made a spike upon release of the 7.30 am figure, which was to be HoD (124'.10). Incentive Sellers took then the lead, making a first low at 124'.010. Reactive Buyers reacted and prices came back to 124'.075 but there was no follow through and Sellers pushed again, making the market closing at its low (123'.310).
A 1 day globex view shows a support at 123'240.
Before such level there is LoD (123'.310) and below 123'240 there is S1 (123'.155).
On the resistance side, 124'075 is a first one (value high end) then HoD-PP-MA23 (124.'120-135 ). Above we have 124'.210-225 (mid PP-R1, MA44 and 09/11 HoD).
Weekly PP is at 124.130. As long as prices do remian below, target is S1 (123'.155). I think the market will need to test the 123'240 support.
Outcry market opened with an upward gap and upon release of the two US data (7.20 and 8.15 am) incentive Buyers pushed prices up. 124'.075 forecasted resistance level was tested. Such level triggered reactive Sellers for 127'.080 was to be the HoD. Not too bad.
Prices came back to 124.040 and market remained trendless during the rest of the session. Closing may be within the 124.040 - 070 area.
Daily candle is a spin top, included in the previous candle, forming an harami.
At 124.'050, POC is a shade higher than Friday but much lower than Thursday.
Prices may end between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen.
On the 4H globex graph, I traced a dowanrd channel. Market tested today the resistance oblique.
Failure to break it should send prices back to at least Friday's LoD(123'.310) and likely to the supporting oblique level. Fast stochastic gives some confort to such hypothesis.
If market resumses its downard trend tomorrow, first support is 124'.040 (Tenkan Sen) then 124'.010 (LoD), 123'.305 (Friday's LoD) and below I do not see much support before S1 (123.'160).
If prices exit from the downard channel by above,124'.080-125 is a resistance area (HoD, former support, MA23, PP, former HoD). Above there is the 124'.210-225 area (mid PP-R1, former HoD, MA44) and finally R1 (124.'290).
Some US statistics may bring some volatility tomorrow but I do not expect a dramatic move prior to FED's minutes disclosure.
During the european moring session, on globex, market exit from the downard channel by above and tested once the 124'.125 resistance level (124.'135 paid).
I drafted on the4H TU globex graph a decreasing broadening structure (at least three points of contact on each oblique).
I think that market will fail to break the resistance oblique and that some support will be searched near Friday's LoD (123'.310) but only time will tell.
I will eventually go short upon release of the 7.30 am statistic if I do see a clear rejection on the 124'125-135 level.
Outcry market opened with an upward gap and upon the release of the 7.30 am statistic, reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices gently decreased to reach Monday's outcry session closing (124'.050). Such level was to be LoD. On this level reactive Buyers pushed prices up to 124'.130 but as there was no follow through, outcry market ended at 124'.070
At 124'100, POC is higher than Monday which was higher than Friday : Buyers are in control of the market.
There is no HVN.
The 1 day globex graph shows a very neat tombstone doji. Globex session begun and ended at 124'.070 level.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU gloex 4H graph, we can see that all indicators are on a bearish mode. Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are however on the verge of crossing, which could be the sign of a trend change.
We can see that the dowanrd broadening structure resistance oblique did a good job as resistance.
Bear in mind that 80% of such structures exit by above, specially when there is a partial rotation.
Therefore, if prices do test again the resistance oblique, for instance upon release of the FOMC meeting minutes and subsequent Yellen press conference, you should expect a strong upward move which target is 125'060.
Alternatively, the continuation of the downard move which resumed this US morning could send prices as low as 123'.010
Tomorrow evening move could be so big that I feel useless to give the usual supports and resistance levels.
Be cautious, there is much volatility ahead. For the less experienced, it could be wise to go tomorrow and to trade only on Thursday when FED has talked.
tomorrow and to trade only on Thursday when