The 10 Year Treasury Note

January 30th, 2014, 05:07 PM

At 11 pm Paris time, that is what 10 Year T Note dayli graph looks like.
I know how it is called in French "sommet en pince" and a free english translation could be "top in crowbar".
Looks topish to me.

On the 4H graph, I have drafted a rising wedge. Moreover, fast stochastics top related to the second market top (made on January 29th) is lower than fast stochastics top related to the first market top ( made on January 24th).

If you are long in bonds for several days, it could be wise to take part of your profits before it is too late.

I will sell if prices exit the rising wedge by below, to target lower BB of TU 4H.

Good Evening.

February 1st, 2014, 08:27 AM

MARS

At 11 pm Paris time, that is what 10 Year T Note dayli graph looks like.
I know how it is called in French "sommet en pince" and a free english translation could be "top in crowbar".
Looks topish to me.

On the 4H graph, I have drafted a rising wedge. Moreover, fast stochastics top related to the second market top (made on January 29th) is lower than fast stochastics top related to the first market top ( made on January 24th).

If you are long in bonds for several days, it could be wise to take part of your profits before it is too late.

I will sell if prices exit the rising wedge by below, to target lower BB of TU 4H.

Good Evening.

yes you right, but i see 80.000 cts /5 min push up from 21 to 28.5, and if mkt continue down, maybe go 126.20?
thanks for youe analisys

alejo

February 2nd, 2014, 09:49 PM

Graph in TU 1 H.

After Friday's upward market, prices are still in the rising wedge.

Target is 124'25 in the case of an exit by below and an hefty 127'13 in the case of an exit by above.

Prices are above weekly PP (the thick blue horizontal line) and MA 44 TU 4H (the orange horizontal line) which makes an exit by below not the most likely but market will do what it wants and we will follow, as ever.....

On Friday I sold near the resistance oblique and made a few bucks.

In the case of an exit by above, I will target R1 (126'06) and I will not sell prior a 1 hour candle closes below MA 44.

February 2nd, 2014, 10:07 PM

us markets did not sell-off because of emerging markets debt/currency fears

emerging market debt/currencies sold-off because of the fed's policy/narrative

every market in the world keys off the $

so when the fed manipulates the us$ and interest rates

it manipulates every currency and debt market in the world

the fed used a few rather dubious, if not misleading economic reports

as a justification to taper, but in reality it was not because

their economic growth, employment, or inflation targets had been met

the equity markets obviously realize that they tapered into weakness

but, you have to wonder if there is more to this sell-off, than a casual relationship

bonds should have broken and the curve should have flattened, as a result of reduced asset purchases

but instead rates fell...

it appears that the fed would like to see to negative real rates.

with inflation at 1-1.5% and the 10year at 2.6; we have positive real rates

which incur higher real costs because the cost of borrowing is higher than the inflation rate

negative real rates are a powerful inducement to borrow

because the borrower is paying the money back in cheaper dollars

the fed WAS trying to achieve negative real rates by attempting to ignite inflation through qe

but with a 4 trillion dollar balance sheet and nothing to show for it

le fed apparently felt they were at their limit- which is probably the real reason for the taper

instead, it appears that the fed is trying to achieve negative real rates

by getting the banks to buy bonds and lowering nominal rates instead

all the while the central banks and the bis fight to contain & suppress the price of gold

February 3rd, 2014, 06:56 PM

Graph in TU 1H.

Upon the release of a disapointing ISM figure, stocks dropped and 10 Year T Note future contract gapped the resistance oblique of the rising wedge (gap not visible on the graph).

Target is an hefty 127'16 and shall be valid as long as prices do not go below the resistance oblique of the rising wedge which shall be now a support line.

As market may not go up there in a straight line, an eventual return of prices near such line or MA 23, (this evening at 125'305) may be a buying opportunity.

I bought shortly after the gap and already sold such long position, waiting for a retracement to enter long again.

Good Evening.

February 4th, 2014, 05:22 AM

Exactly the post I was waiting for .

...WHY the the entire world appears to revolve around the US 10 year T note.

Thanks, Gary

tigertrader

us markets did not sell-off because of emerging markets debt/currency fears

emerging market debt/currencies sold-off because of the fed's policy/narrative

every market in the world keys off the $

so when the fed manipulates the us$ and interest rates

it manipulates every currency and debt market in the world

the fed used a few rather dubious, if not misleading economic reports

as a justification to taper, but in reality it was not because

their economic growth, employment, or inflation targets had been met

the equity markets obviously realize that they tapered into weakness

but, you have to wonder if there is more to this sell-off, than a casual relationship

bonds should have broken and the curve should have flattened, as a result of reduced asset purchases

but instead rates fell...

it appears that the fed would like to see to negative real rates.

with inflation at 1-1.5% and the 10year at 2.6; we have positive real rates

which incur higher real costs because the cost of borrowing is higher than the inflation rate

negative real rates are a powerful inducement to borrow

because the borrower is paying the money back in cheaper dollars

the fed WAS trying to achieve negative real rates by attempting to ignite inflation through qe

but with a 4 trillion dollar balance sheet and nothing to show for it

le fed apparently felt they were at their limit- which is probably the real reason for the taper

instead, it appears that the fed is trying to achieve negative real rates

by getting the banks to buy bonds and lowering nominal rates instead

all the while the central banks and the bis fight to contain & suppress the price of gold

February 4th, 2014, 07:11 PM

TU 4H graph.

We can see that prices made a throwback on the former resistance of the rising wedge.
Fast stochastics seems to be on the rise again.

If the former resistance acts as a support, as we do expect, first target is 126'30 and then 127'16

The US statistics to be released tomorrow shall give the fuel for the expected rise.

February 5th, 2014, 04:09 PM

The US statistics did not give fuel for a further rise. At the contrary, reactive Seller entered into the market and pushed down prices.

On the 4 hour graph, I drafted a rising channel, as it seems this evening that market found some support at 127'26, top of the congestion which took place at the turn of January.

Obviously, the target given in my last post are obsolete.

The US data to be released Thursday and Friday shall decide the fate of the present bullish market.

February 13th, 2014, 08:20 AM

On this 1 hour graph, I traced a decreasing wedge (only two contacts on the support oblique but many on the resistance. The thick blue line is weekly PP. If prices remain above the red oblique target is 125'26.
A failure to stay above such oblique would send prices back to the support oblique, aroud 125'02.

US figures in 15' now.

Good luck.

February 13th, 2014, 08:56 AM

I hope you were able to make some bucks on this one.

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The 10 Year Treasury Note