NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Big move on crude analysis


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
    1. trending_up 3,884 views
    2. thumb_up 3 thanks given
    3. group 1 followers
    1. forum 4 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Big move on crude analysis

  #1 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,216 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,752
Thanks Received: 18,136

Hi all, looking for some analysis of this big move up on crude, specifically, from a real-time trading perspective, what is the best way in your opinion to trade this? Wait for breakout and retest? Enter on a limit?

I entered on a limit and got stopped out by 10 ticks before the 250 tick move up--now that was frustrating! See the video and would love some feedback on this. Basically, how did you play this, and at what moment were you convinced that the move was "for real"?


Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
Ninja Mobile Trader VPS (ninjamobiletrader.com)
Trading Reviews and Vendors
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
 
  #3 (permalink)
 
kbit's Avatar
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
Posts: 5,854 since Nov 2010
Thanks Given: 3,295
Thanks Received: 3,364


Here's what I was looking at (QM) with Kase bars....I could never find a tick chart that worked reliably with oil, some success w /5m and 15m but, Kase is the way to go. My advice would be not to reason why...but trade what you see. Focus on P/A and not blindly enter and cross your fingers.
Find a chart that gives you reliable signals (and KNOW how to read them) and focus on p/a at areas that are likely to see a turn around. As far as knowing how big a move will be...you can't ...that's why you have to manage trades, some are homeruns and some are not. P.S. I am assuming you know what a pinbar is and/or basic reversal candles look like so you know what I've shown with this chart.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #4 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,216 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,752
Thanks Received: 18,136

Thanks kbit.

Actually as I mentioned the low around .60, forming the reversal bar, I just missed with a limit order at .55, as I looked far left and , and again I just missed the later move as I was stopped out -10 ticks. I don't feel the type of bar is an issue as I use minute bars and tick bars, I don't like range/kase bars very much in general. I feel they are very poor at showing me personally what price actually did at a level (not very good tails on candles, not too accurate in showing where buyers and sellers actually came in). Just curious, why do you use kase bars and not range bars?

I'm not talking about PA in general--I'm talking about the strength of this move--of course we don't know ahead of time how strong a move will be, but let's analyze this market before and find out any factors that may have contributed to the strong move up. Was it because we had such a strong decline down earlier? Did a spike in volume at some point lead anyone to believe that we might rocket up? Was that last little dip down (at 1:20pm) just a stop run, or was there some supply/demand -based reason why? Just looking to learn from today's action.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	clbigmove.PNG
Views:	213
Size:	49.0 KB
ID:	33456  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
 
kbit's Avatar
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
Posts: 5,854 since Nov 2010
Thanks Given: 3,295
Thanks Received: 3,364

The Saudi Arabian police started shooting at protesters ......news event. That's why it spiked up

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 11, 2011


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts