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1 Introduction
Last couple of months I picked up the trading thing again. I traded before but without any kind of plan and of course with losses... etc. The last months I did a lot of reading and finally I did get the point that it’s very important to log the trades and have a tradingplan. So I did log my trades the last weeks for myself. But when I saw this contest starting, and the change of winning an Ipad.. I thought.. why not sharing my trades? Also this will enforce me to log my trades really and think about the trades I placed after the fact.
So the purpose of this thread is to log all my trades in here and describe why I did something (good and bad trades!). I will tell you below my setups and rules for the setups. I’m inspired by Linda Raschke, so you will see what I’m trading here, it will match with her philosophy.
1.1Software and indicators I use NinjaTrader for my analysis and Interactive Brokers (a reseller of them actually) as execution platform. I’m trading on the 5 minute and 15 minute charts, also I will look at HTF's for determining the trend. I’m using simple oscillators to help me finding market patterns.
MACD 3,10,16 (Linda Raschke)
ADX 14.
EMA 20.
I’m only using these oscillator for confirmation of the patterns I see in the price, so price is the most important. So if there is a valid condition on oscillator I won’t trade it if it isn’t confirmed by price itself, obviously.
1.2Trend definition Uptrend: Market has a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
Downtrend: Market has a steady pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
1.3Trend Reversal Downtrend to Uptrend: Market must make both a higher high
and higher low AND then turn up from there.(meaning take out the last
swing high for confirmation)
Uptrend to downtrend: Market must make both a lower high and
lower low AND then turn down from there. (meaning take out the last
swing low for confirmation)
1.4 The markets
Main focus on: ES, 6E, CL (QM). 1 contract only and always one market a time.
1.5 Abbreviations
HTF = Higher Time Frame
LTF = Lower Time Frame
Momo = momentum
Div = Divergence
Momo div = price must be outside keltner, so no stairstep divergence!
U turn = trend reversal, also a failed ABC/power
FC = First Cross
IT = intermediate
Anti = Actually a flag but not in a trend, the pole of the flag must be bigger than the previous swing!
Osc. = Oscillator (the MACD 3,10,16)
2 Preperation the day before
For myself I make an analyze of the market the day before trading. I will look at the dailies.
This also for pattern recognition: For example: Is there divergence on 240min? Is the daily in uptrend? Is 120min in range? Was the previous day trendday or narrow range?
So I will take a look at these things:
Structure: Uptrend, downtrend, range?
Plays on HTF (daily, 240, 120): Momentum divergence, patterns (ABC), Low ADX (range), FLAG, Grail buy/sells?
How was previous day? narrow range, trend, inside day, 3day triangle
So know where dailies/240/120 are, night before!! So you know what to play for.
3 The Day 3.1 Before entry:
- Check last time for CLEAR TREND of 60min, NO RANGE OR MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE?
- Calculate risk. Can I stand the heat?
I'm looking for setups on the 5(LTF) 15/30 (HTF), these setups work actually on all timeframes. So you can also do it on a 15 and 60 for example. But with these higher timeframes the heat is too big for me.
1. Bull flag (oscillator pattern between the parentheses ) LTF: Flag with momentum highs, price above keltner. (momentum highs) (wait for osc to correct down: FC/IT)
HTF: Uptrend
Entry: Around 20EMA 5min (wait for osc to correct down)
Stop: 2 times ATR 5min.
Target: Big target, wait for new highs and trail. NO SCALP - be patient.
2. Down wave after higher high HTF: Down wave after higher high in uptrend (first cross/intermediate buy)
LTF: Momentum buy divergence or trend reversal, so ABC.
Entry: After buy div has formed (note: first push on div should be outside keltner!)
Stop: Last swing low
Target: New highs, number 1 trade.
3. Down wave after lower high HTF: Down wave after lower high but still in uptrend (this is an ABC; power buy) A=C!.
LTF: First Cross / Anti (pole of the lag must be bigger than prev. swing)
Entry: Around point B
Stop: Last swing low (this is C)
Target: New highs, so big.
3.3 Important other notes/Other filters: - Length of swing not longer than previous swing, otherwise there is shift of momentum - Always confirmation from oscillator
- ABC: A length = C length (Again: A may not be longer than the previous upswing, in case of a abc in uptrend)
- A good flag has bar overlap
- DO NOT TRADE ONLY ON OSC. AND DO NOT TRADE ONLY ON PRICE, LOOK FOR CONFIRMATION.
- Flags do not work with ABC on HTF (so if there is abc down in uptrend and on LTF there is a bear flag, NO PLAY)
Time = GMT + 1:00, so six hours later than this forum time .
60min was still in uptrend after an ABC down, this was played out well.
Was my first and last trade of the day.
The 5 had momentum highs (both in 15and 5 actually), then nice bar overlap and a good bull flag, almost to the 20 EMA.
Felt Comfortable that it had follow trough, at least to new highs, 20ticks stop was also nice (also the 20 EMA as support).
Entry: see chart
Initial stop was: See chart (notice: the third and fourth arrow are not right placed on the pricture!!)
After new highs I didn't move really further up so stop to b/e
Then I saw divergence on the second push and price was not moving and consolidated.. so I decided to exit at 39.
Neg/pos notes: I saw divergence pretty late. If I see momentum divergence should exit directly so at the second push already actually. But the risk then was only 7 ticks (stop to swing low of the flag) therefore I waited a bit longer, good decision afterwards.
No trades today. Grr. Couldn't pull the trigger.
Nice trend day down on ES, there was an opportunity. See image 1. Altough still in an uptrend, should have took that trade because the momentum was so big. After missing I was waiting for a pullback in to the 15/30 timeframe.. but didn't get anyone.
6E was in a range today so no trades, maybe tomorrow .
CL had a break out to the upside (from the triangle) but that couldn't convince me with a nice pullback (there were flags around actually but not didn't feel comfortable with it).
Gameplan for tomorrow: ES
Consolidation day so no flag trading.
Daily: still in a uptrend, an abc will show up below 1292,50
240: -
120: -
6E
240: uptrend, but in abc down
120: uptrend, but in abc down
Narrow range > wait for breakout
The 15min didn't get an ABC but the 5min did. After that nice buy divergence.
I wanted to put order at 20 with stop at swing low 04,but didn't had the balls to do it...... now price made new highs.
(so this was the setup number 2 as you can see in the first post)
Warning myself: NO ENFORCED ERRORS, don't TILT (I almost did: took almost a long at british pound)
So get 5min away and take a nice
Finally had the balls to pull the trigger on 6C (CAD). HTF in uptrend. (120/240) and there was buy div on the pullback.
15min had momentum highs, and 5min flag, I entered at the 20EMA @1.0280. Initial stop: 20ticks, 2* ATR.
After a few minutes I saw that div was forming, and exited at 1.0286. So only +6ticks.
After I exited price did get another impulse.. so in stead of exited I should had move the stop to swing low @74.
So what I learned:
Do not exit to soon if you think you see div forming.. stop to swing low to protect. If it did get lower it only was a loser of 6 ticks. You're playing with HTF setup (15min) so don't get too scary of the 5min.
Well at least I had the balls . Now let see if there can be form an ABC down on the 5min.
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