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Increasingly I am wanting to get on the side of the trend and that means properly identifying the trend. And lately I have found myself hunting the larger moves trying to counter the current trend by trading with the larger trend. I won't launch into a massive Q&A about indicators because largely I don't use them but I am experimenting with price reactions to various MA levels so I have a couple questions from those who know better than I.
How do those of you who use MA's (HMA, SMA, EMA, etc) find the price reacts to these in terms of stop placement? Do you rely on MA's to place stops? Do they get hunted down often?
Are there MA's which react differently, specifically better when range charts are in use? I use 4, 13, and 31 range charts among my time charts and I find that MA's of all kinds react differently to these charts. Do you think it is advisable or safe MA's for time charts? I am finding using two different MA's (HMA and WMA) on a 4 range with the same bar calc (50) provides an interesting interpretation to price action.
Lastly, are there common MA's price honors regularly besides the old 30,50,200 SMA on a day chart? Are there MA's you find, when broken, produce outsized moves? Obviously if it were this easy we would all be rich but just in the course of your trading, any observations.
I'll say that I have a 60 minute ES chart with a 720 EMA (30 day) and the ES bounced mightily off it today around 1267ish not sure if anyone else noticed it or had a different interpretation.
Thanks all. Good luck.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
IMO the major moving averages, EMA 20, SMA 50, etc. have significance as S&R on time charts only, because there are enough people looking at the same thing. That said, price will bounce off everything at some point, so some people believe it's imaginary. I don't believe they have significance as S&R on range charts because not enough people are looking at the same thing. Regardless, you can definately use them as stops on a range chart, as long as you know through your experience and/or testing that it is a reliable signal the trade is dead and/or will consistently take you out at a profit.
I use 5 tick range bars with EMA (8) and EMA (21) on every market . I stick with Fibonacci numbers for the lengths. I do NOT think they are magic numbers, but it does give me a standard set to choose from so I don't spend a life time trying to decide if 13 is better than 14 or 15 or 16 etc. The attached charts are from today.
I use them because they work for me. As always, YMMV.
Regards,
TMFT
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
TMFT that is an interesting chart set up you have there. I've never put that much work into my chart templates. Some day I'll have to take a look at a cool gradient color scheme like that. It gave me an idea, thank you!
Like any indicator that looks at historical info or pretty much anything OnBarClose the reliability is only as good as its popularity. That said I am beginning to see the wisdom in using the MA's to just give a visual reinforcement to what I am already seeing. I am using a 4 range chart with a 50 bar HMA and a 50 bar VMA but I am a long way from done with testing.
The reason I asked about the stops is because I would never trust a line on a chart with my stop, it isn't how I plot my stops now but I was wondering what the major resistance lines are people are seeing because if I am going to adjust my entries I will need to be cognizant of them.
I appreciate the input and I concur that the range charts make for a different reading of the MA's. I'll let you know what I come up with.
The Gradient is actually functional. It's in sync with my indicators. It turns the green gradient on for longs and red gradient for shorts. The gradient changes are like a visual alert to the trend change.
Regards,
TMFT
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
