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I'm in no way applying that your judgement of the market is wrong. you might be right with all your points.
I'm just not a long term futures investor. so that strong rally this afternoon indicates to me that the up auction is still intact. of course that can change overnight or tomorrow. but for now my bias is bullish.
talking about bubbles. I don't know how long you're in this business. last century (that sounds weird), I mean in the 1990's we had a high tech bubble. after a couple of years many people were saying that stuff is overvalued, a bubble. they were right, but they missed one of the biggest rally in history and had to wait what, almost 10 years to be finally right.
with the environment we have today, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spx at 1500. time will tell.
and the markets need different opinions...
maybe I should explain why I think there's a big chance for higher prices. current valuation is not overvalued. I believe earnings estimates for next year of around $ 90.00 are very realistic. and if you take a p/e of about 17, then we are around 1500 in s&p. but the # 1 reason for me is, if stock prices remain or even decline from current levels and corporate borrowing costs stay low, companies would use that to buy back their own shares. and that would further increase earnings and the stock market would be even cheaper.
the only thing I'm worried about is the global uncertainty. we know bad news travel fast and can create panic pretty fast.
