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Wow, I was shocked by the thread title and was thinking something like "OMG, what kind of forum have I chosen this time?" (that is after really bad recent experiences in an earlier one) so the content of your posts above was a great relief and a reassurance to me.
I am only a recent trader, but I hope I know enough to appreciate that win rate alone (without reward-to-risk figures) and income monitored as a daily amount of money (rather than perhaps as a monthly or quarterly percentage) are not useful metrics.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Making $500/day with 90% win rate is actually possible. You just need to become a mini medium/high frequency trader. Problem is the infrastructure to do it will cost you more than you make!
The people that need to stop looking for this are the exact ones that don't at all understand your reply.
Please don't encourage this behavior. Help me craft a better way to educate traders that are enamored by this type of thread title on all the reasons why it's the wrong metric and path.
Well instead of saying it's wrong, it might be useful if you explained the reasons as to why it's wrong?
From my limited experience, a higher win rate means taking higher probability setups with smaller profit targets and worse risk/reward. Is there a reason that this is worse than taking lower probability setups with a higher risk reward?
I've not found the sweet spot yet, and for me it all depends on market conditions, so doubt there is a sweet spot that works for all market conditions. A ranging day would have different targets for me than a trending day.
I agree that achieving a 90% win rate requires a high risk to reward ratio, one that is likely greater than 10:1. I have backtested various strategies seeking 90% win rate and all of my results indicate a losing strategy. I also traded live seeking a 90% win rate and the results were the same as my backtesting, the large losses far outweighed the many small winning trades.
Now I did not use technical analysis and charts to pick my entries, so if you have an edge in that department maybe you could push the results closer to break even and maintain a 90% win rate, but I don't know.
All I know is that trying to achieve a high win rate of 90% did not work for my trading and I stay away from strategies with those kind of results.
