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Göttingen, Germany
Posts: 13 since Nov 2021
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 11
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Greetings to all,
I don't want this to become a whining-thread. But I must confess that I'm one of those who have missed the entire stock market rally this year so far. I'm almost completely in cash with 100k and the inflation eats away my purchasing power. Ok, I've made some very good money in trading commodity futures in June, but have to stop now due to our german tax regulations and could have made much more (and in a much more tax efficient way) by putting all my money in a Nasdaq100 oder S&P500 ETF and just leaning back. Not to mention the profits that have been possible by trading their rexpectice futures.
I was unfortunately too heavily inclined to fundamental analysis and I've made the mistake to listen too much to the analysts from big investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JPM, Goldman Sachs an so on who all predicted either new lows or at least once again a testing of the october lows in the first six month of 2023. Especially Morgan Stanbley's Mike Wilson didn't get tired to openly advice investors urgently to exit their stock positions.
It all made sense to me due to the expexted effect of the high interest rates (world wide) and then in march during the banking crisis the expectations of much more restrictive lending policies of the banks. Watching economic news over and over I've been presented non-stop with numerous indicators which seemed to predict an imminent recession.
But what happened so far? We have witnessed a terrific rally for over 7 month now. Ok, there's still the possibility that under the surface the high interest rates and tighter lending policies are eating their way through the system. I would be heavily surprised if we wouldn't see an economic slowdown and at least a mild recession to the end of 23 or beginning of 24.
But who knows whether we will see really attractice stock prices to build/rebuild up a portfolio. I rather expect markets to start creeping sideways over a very long time.
Anyone here in a similar frustrating position?
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