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A few things I've noticed that don't seem to be talked about much. These might be useful.
People like round numbers. The ES moves between levels of fives, e.g. 4400, 4405, and so on. On a tight day the price may do battle in the space between two of these levels.
The opening movement, between 0930-1000, is often a false move. The reversal may come almost exactly at 1000, or close to it, and the countermove sets the trend for much or all of the day. Barry Taylor talks a lot about this.
Much of the movement seen in the price is not due to changes in the value of stocks, but to currency. Since prices are quoted in US dollars any change in the value of the dollar is immediately reflected in the index price. You can filter this out using the DX or by constructing your own simple currency index.
I've never studied correlation or divergence of es to the US dollar.
The known obvious correlations are dow, nq, apple etc. Will have to look into this
I dont agree with 4405, but round numbers in general are huge levels for the ES, thats for sure.
the 100s and 50s one should consider in its trading. Maybe the 10s, but for sure the 100s and 50s.
My approach was to synthesize my own currency index by subscribing to 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E and merging the values together. You can then divide the ES by this and you'll see that a lot of the spiky stuff goes away and you see a slower, smoother curve. How this would affect your trading decisions I am not sure as you still have to place your orders into the "real" market.
This also answers the question of why ES, YM, NQ, and RTY move in such synchronization - they are all responding to little vibrations in the value of the currency.
I feel like this widely known, and usually a first topic under the "understanding levels" part of market education. Daily candle support and resistance zones, and key numbers are a big part of a lot of traders plan that I work with.
Have you not seen it talked about a lot? Maybe most people think its basic / assumed information so thats why it isnt brought up that much?
