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This thread is to share your thought and opinion about that old way to trade.
It might log nothing important, or anything I write is important. Who knows.
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I find a book that near 100 years old (or maybe it's exceed 100years already!)
It said they use the ticker machine to trade (which only see the text only!!!)
I don't spend too much time on this book and years later I still don't readed it in 100% progress.
I think his way maybe a very simple one because they don't even use chart.
I remember this book mentioned the a situation that is how ticker moves veryfast
(I don't know what a ticker is at that time. I think it is a pointer that can draw lines by telegram)
(But today I understand it is a typer connected to telegram that only output plain text on a paper strip)
So the thing he mentioned is that ticker have tick sound. The sound suddenly become very fast. And the paper must move very fast
Well, I'll update it when I readed the full course.
My book is "Studies In Tape Reading Richard Wyckoff (1910)"
I remember he said the price break at important area. So it's a kind of break trade?
I think I misremembered the thing. I already readed the whole book!!!
Well I'm going to spend some time to see my notes.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I think only few people succeed in that old time.
(Because the book don't give you full way to trade but an abstract or an basic frame)
His way is special.
Because he require at least 3point of movement of stock(Which is 24tick to other markets)
In past I don't like scalper (I'v seen people did 500 trades and have high success rate but I have not over 4 trade and have much profit than his. (4x more I think))
But recent day I understanded more about this thing.
It's more like a high success rate with much more profit than scalper.
It is interday trade but might not like today's.
I think he prefer big moves rather to scalp. And he said that under 24tick (3point) is un-tradeable.
I think many people can trade it successfull escapially that 500 trades high succ rate guy.
So the old interday method is even more power than this era's!!!
I think whether you are interested in interday or hft, this way can still benefit any trader.
So that's why I decide to spend more time to research this thing.
I aim to design a trade method that based on equivolume chart and vol bars.
(No any other indicators need, if it really need, the fewer the better)
My research is target on how those money works in the market. So the regular indicator won't work.
Much time should be spend on volume/price behavior.
And I think it usually don't need the price chart. Because You can imagine a small market.
From the whole life experience that simple and dumb thing that surely not wrong is
The big volume might induce a extended price move immediately but not always like that.
In some case it usually start up immediately but not always up.
I see price always move up in a morning. It is 10000-20000 contracts for 1min from the start of opening.
Then someday I see a bell reverse without obvious volume character. But price fall back all!!!
Then some day I see price move for 1min with > 10000 vol but it have some corrective move.
I don't know how to identify this non-corrective always up moving price from the opening of market.
Maybe it's caused by some natural cycle.
I might edit this post after the end of this months.
And I'll add a content table for 1st post in later.
Be warned that my post will jumpy.
And don't forget that this thread is only for research.
I don't have big ideas yet. But if anything fails. I gotta use a tight risk control
And analyze the chance of some kind of "easy price"
Now I'm spend time studying some astrological books.
Because I find that cycle still work in hourly level.
2022-06-21 18:26:18
I think the last sort to deal with failure is to use a tight risk control
And the "easy price" should occur frequently or it's not worth to design a new way base on that kind of price.
In China there are level2 datafeed for stock
And they have some indicator based on every position of volume.
e.g you see 1000 volume in a second of regular history.
(Regular software push data for fixed interval e.g 4times for 1s)
If there are many small orders. It got merged.
Level2 can let you see in a faster volume activity.
If you see a 1000vol in free software with fixed push interval.
L2 don't have fixed push interval but a dynamic and it never merge orders.
SO it might be many volumes like 100 orders and it target to a big order or a regular small orders.
It based on the price movement from every orders then derived to some volume source
(It separate vol from big to small orders and only show same type volume, and also you can use the data source invent new charts).
So the L2 indicator is faster than a regular tick indicator.
But I think If I learn programming. I might use this order data to build a tick obv from second level.
(throught it can never be as accurate as L2 data But is's far more realiable than regular indicators.
Currently L2 for futures market is not avaliable.)
And align it to any time period.
The chart will looks always same on different time frame.
I'm not going to do it because I can use stock's data to study at first.
And whether this can be useful is a question.
All those thing will be empty telling if I can't use those tools correctly.
Here are something usually happen.
In flat range.
1. People buy stocks actively but price not going up.
(The big order seller are suppress the price But what the aim is it? They can always withdraw the order and gone)
2. People buy actively but price move a little (strong pressure)
(Resistence can be calculated using vol/range. But it's hard to use or just a useless thing.)
3. High pressure stopped the price usually happens in stocks but nothing special happens in next day..
Price can move lower or just still flat. Or go up and get back....
Does all of those thing not necessary!?? Maybe I'm thinking too much.
I'll record them here
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High volume on the top or near the top. (Price might be down and it's just a potential) Notice that a big sell orders will make price down, but at the end of minute. The resistance from seller may disappears.
And price go up slightly but it makes price close higher [This higher price is moved by small orders than the big order]
So your chart might appear like some big vol moved up the price but in fact it's not.
I think the negative actvol in stock market is caused the market maker they tent to get profit immediately so they sells fast.
(They earn the spread)
Recent day I find that the speaking of wyckoff is same as livermore.
Livermore said something like that the sculper can never earn big money.
And he said he use ticker.
It means there exist a way to trade long swing by using tick.
And from his book he mentioned price break 8 to 10 points (which means 64-80ticks profit!!!!)
He also mentioned the arithmetic but never 'good memory'
The people have good memory might not good for arithmetic.
I'm not sure does he calculate something by his head.
Is there some simple indicator about the volume?
How he deal with volume? If he just remember it he don't need to calculate!!!
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From the hours of study the tick or the tick simlar very fast chart
I see this pattern usually appears
which is a bulge of volume. Very obvious.
The bulge is bigger than usual but the price don't move immediately.
Have you checked out Wyckoff Analytics, David Weiss and Gary Dayton? Weiss and Dayton use Elwyckoff on an intraday basis(day trading), while Wyckoff Analytics is more daily charts.
Wyckoff has been updated by a few different people and charts are used. Actually in Wyckoffs course from the 1930’s there are charts.
