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Last Trade vs Settlement Price and Aggregation at Open vs Not


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Last Trade vs Settlement Price and Aggregation at Open vs Not

  #1 (permalink)
MollieP
Las Vegas, Nevada
 
Posts: 10 since Feb 2022
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 8

Hello everyone. I hope you'll permit me to ask a few questions. I've been trading for a while now but I'd like to take it more seriously and I'm coming up on issues I have little experience on.

I trade mostly /NQ and /ES, using ToS (thinkorswim) as the platform. I know it's not the best for execution and I might change it in the near future!

Firstly I'm wondering whether the standard for most people would be to use the settlement price for your daily/weekly/monthly candles instead of just the last traded price. All this time I've been using the last traded price instead of settlement without realizing many might be using something else (settlement). I've been doing pretty well while ignorantly using the last traded price on ToS for all my lines (support, resistance) but I'm not sure if that is introducing unnecessary inaccuracy.

Second, another thing I did not know was that many people aggregate their chart at market open so that for example the 1 hour candle will start at 9:30 am instead of 9:00 am. Same would of course apply to 2 hour, 4 hour, etc. This entire time I have of course been using the default on ToS. Just like ignorantly using the last traded price above, I have also been using the normal method of aggregation (9 am, 10 am, 11 am) instead of adjusting it for the market open. I am not sure which is more common and whether I am introducing more inaccuracy into my trading by not using aggregated data at the open like this. Though on ToS when I do aggregate it, it makes it hard to view extended hours accurately (so maybe optimally would be to turn it on during market hours and turn it off when I'm trading the evening/night session? Though I then worry I'll be technically trading two different charts).

Last little question. How inaccurate is it if I'm always only looking at the continuous contracts. Should I actually be looking at a bunch of different /NQ charts even if I'm only always trading the front month? I notice looking at the continuous contract there are some glaring differences, even when comparing the continuous to the forward month on daily candles just a few weeks old (/NQ1! vs NQH2022). Which should I be using or should I be using both/multiple?

As you can see, I am quite ignorant, but I'm really really eager to learn. Any books, videos, websites, etc. you guys think would help I'd be happy to look into and pay. I am grateful for all this free advise as it is.

Thank you kindly,

Mollie

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  #2 (permalink)
 
matthew28's Avatar
 matthew28 
United Kingdom
Elite_Member
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Bookmap
Broker: Stage 5, Rithmic
Trading: US Equity Index Futures
Posts: 1,250 since Sep 2013
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Thanks Received: 2,532


MollieP View Post
Firstly I'm wondering whether the standard for most people would be to use the settlement price for your daily/weekly/monthly candles instead of just the last traded price.

Any platform I have tried has used Open, High, Low, Close for chart candles. On the quote board there is often the Settlement price listed for the previous day, or if I want to know the Settlement from a few days ago I can go to that page on the CME website for the product. But charts show OHLC (though if somebody said that using Settlement was an option on Sierra Charts I wouldn't be surprised as that platforms seems to be capable of just about anything).
Same with indicators that use OHLC such as pivot points, it's the close not the Settle.

I also haven't ever used a chart package that allows "people to aggregate their chart at the market open". Perhaps they are only charting the Regional Trading Hours so 9:30am-4:00pm ET for the US Equity index futures to correspond to the stock market hours. That way it would be easy to see the first hour or two from the open. Especially if using a Market Profile chart where the first hour is the Initial Balance, and the bars could be coloured differently for the second hour and fourth hour.

If using full data charts showing the 24 hour day and the 23 hours Extended Trading Hours ES session then if I have ever looked at the 4hour bar chart I think it has just reset at 12, 4, 8, 12 o'clock. Personally I would have a look at the CME charts on their website and if those charts on the product Quotes Page ( https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html ), use those standard 4 hour reset times be happy with the same yourself.

Regarding continuous contracts, my Daily chart is continuous so that I can stick a couple of long term simple moving averages on there simply as a bit of a reference. A non continuous contract often doesn't really have enough days data for a 200SMA when the contract becomes the front month.
But depending on your platform a contract can be back adjusted or not when 'stitching' together the contract months which can change the price of past swing highs or lows. Ninjatrader for instance has the option to to use back adjusted data or not for continuous contracts so it is easy to compare the difference.
Personally if price had just rolled over in a contract and I wanted to know an exact swing high/low price from the week before I would use the new current month contract non continuous chart for checking the level.

So my long-term continuous ETH Daily chart is a 'big picture' view, and for recent historical swings highs/lows I can get them off my non continuous contract Market Profile chart which has RTH profiles (for the NQ). Those Market Profiles show the close at 4:00pm and the Settlement is now at that time too which usually very close in price. And if I was using pivot point indicators, it would be whatever indicator was on the platform which would use OHLC info from the full data Daily chart.
Therefore it is a mix. IMHO I don't think there is really a 'correct' answer. Just use whatever is convenient and makes sense to you for the product and timeframe you are trading (eg: day trading the US equity indexes in the US session, one might just refer to RTH data, or if trading US Crude which also has reasonable trade volume outside the traditional RTH hours, then look at the full ETH session etc).

You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
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  #3 (permalink)
MollieP
Las Vegas, Nevada
 
Posts: 10 since Feb 2022
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 8



matthew28 View Post
Any platform I have tried has used Open, High, Low, Close for chart candles. On the quote board there is often the Settlement price listed for the previous day, or if I want to know the Settlement from a few days ago I can go to that page on the CME website for the product. But charts show OHLC (though if somebody said that using Settlement was an option on Sierra Charts I wouldn't be surprised as that platforms seems to be capable of just about anything).
Same with indicators that use OHLC such as pivot points, it's the close not the Settle.

I also haven't ever used a chart package that allows "people to aggregate their chart at the market open". Perhaps they are only charting the Regional Trading Hours so 9:30am-4:00pm ET for the US Equity index futures to correspond to the stock market hours. That way it would be easy to see the first hour or two from the open. Especially if using a Market Profile chart where the first hour is the Initial Balance, and the bars could be coloured differently for the second hour and fourth hour.

If using full data charts showing the 24 hour day and the 23 hours Extended Trading Hours ES session then if I have ever looked at the 4hour bar chart I think it has just reset at 12, 4, 8, 12 o'clock. Personally I would have a look at the CME charts on their website and if those charts on the product Quotes Page, use those standard 4 hour reset times be happy with the same yourself.

Regarding continuous contracts, my Daily chart is continuous so that I can stick a couple of long term simple moving averages on there simply as a bit of a reference. A non continuous contract often doesn't really have enough days data for a 200SMA when the contract becomes the front month.
But depending on your platform a contract can be back adjusted or not when 'stitching' together the contract months which can change the price of past swing highs or lows. Ninjatrader for instance has the option to to use back adjusted data or not for continuous contracts so it is easy to compare the difference.
Personally if price had just rolled over in a contract and I wanted to know an exact swing high/low price from the week before I would use the new current month contract non continuous chart for checking the level.

So my long-term continuous ETH Daily chart is a 'big picture' view, and for recent historical swings highs/lows I can get them off my non continuous contract Market Profile chart which has RTH profiles (for the NQ). Those Market Profiles show the close at 4:00pm and the Settlement is now at that time too which usually very close in price. And if I was using pivot point indicators, it would be whatever indicator was on the platform which would use OHLC info from the full data Daily chart.
Therefore it is a mix. IMHO I don't think there is really a 'correct' answer. Just use whatever is convenient and makes sense to you for the product and timeframe you are trading (eg: day trading the US equity indexes in the US session, one might just refer to RTH data, or if trading US Crude which also has reasonable trade volume outside the traditional RTH hours, then look at the full ETH session etc).


Great answer! Thanks very much for taking the time to answer my questions.

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Last Updated on February 7, 2022


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