2021, year one

January 1st, 2021, 12:08 AM

this is a continuation of my 2020 journal

2020 vision st.

[INTRO]

the goal is to plan higher probability trades. the arsenal:

[ONE]
oscillator that throws out early signals -----> to avoid late exit

[TWO]
multiple checks on entry/exit -----> to avoid false signals

[THREE]
high/low …

looking back at the year, went from many potential goals
eliminating many guesses, and ending with a simplified solution

through trial and error, repeated mistakes
the funneling does not over-engineer or pigeonhole

but pares the experiences down to the essentials
really, just a negotiation between user and interface

what is personally convenient and needed to get to point X..
not exactly elegant, further novel inputs could rework the model

but the vol was a gift for testing purposes
also learned much surrounding cv..

to the new year, where less is more, work smarter..

January 2nd, 2021, 06:00 AM

year in review.. really have to start with previous year summer as the initiation or cardinal path.. to fixed.. and mutable conclusion of last decade and start of new decade.. in '20 noted especially 3-4, 6-7 and 10-11-12 for mut, card and fix

trailing from a sharp fall drop in ''18, cn trade talks.. initiating a rebound ''19 and concluding with continuation upward, summer provided a droopy prelude dragging on with trade talks fixing to push new highs for ''19 on seeming resolution of said talks.. stalling with stim.. prelude to the conclusion of ''19 in winter ''19/'20

global event lays stim card out finally, concluding previous decade with much stim, on the back of ''08 fin crisis.. which was also a conclusive early stim in ''09/''10.. recall that ''00 was also easing from .com fallout.. earlier than that '''90s '''80s, etc. rates were higher.. now into history lookback

so then mutable conclusion '20, was corrective along the lines of early initiation in ''18, onset of cn talks, back to the original context.. but as mutable '20 gave a conclusive end, the initiation of cardinal '20 brought on a boost and drop.. where drops were merely pauses by stim.. to work back toward upwaves..

followed by fixed '20 which continues card push.. so we await the mutable end '20 and initiation of '21.. weakness picked up still but a bit mid late.. feels like more but less uni and will find out with the quarter and gov changes..

January 7th, 2021, 08:35 AM

saw something in the o/n weds that made me think something was broken.. had to check my settings while head scratching..
but it precluded what would play out in the following days

https://imgur.com/a/eu20Qrk

was kinda played off because of the low volume extended session, but the level seems important.. 370ish is a hard line support and busting through this would entail something unwanted..

again this was a long series of one-sided action, just sitting there in awe as it painted, very deliberately without challenge.. maybe the condition was only there for a temporary purpose.. options or what not who knows..

also present in other longer dated contracts..

https://imgur.com/a/yLHohQq

already pushing away but still zig zagging and filling while doing so..

January 10th, 2021, 06:01 AM

swing loop

formation, dev init
>via med slice, bound start

impulse, build quality
>via mag est tgt

capture, de-risk
>bound end

resolution
>div or ext

confirmation
>pause for prelude

January 26th, 2021, 11:11 AM

the last push on nq was not confirmed by es, bit wonky but works to make room for later possibly

>> will have to keep this in mind, arbs are also a method

took a look at ultra timeframe and actually have not seen a real LL to invalidate any of the ongoing cycle

the dominant push is mostly higher with blips of dips along the way, angles similar but more of it

March 26th, 2021, 03:59 AM

this one is more for inspiration, nothing technical, more psychological

a bit similar to a new sport, instrument, what have you new to learn

mistakes were made, this is ok, since they are all but guaranteed

the final outcome not the immediate results but the response which form the outlook

if anything do not be afraid of the mistakes, but the fear of missing out on the experience to learn from them

the more mistakes made in this fashion the faster to a later positive outcome

do not be afraid but be eager in the process to see what you might make of them

if anything make more, maybe minimize their impact and keep going

make mistakes for the right reason, accept and absorb them willingly

and perhaps if this thing is no longer a mistake, keep doing more of it

2021, year one

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2021, year one