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The market cannot be controlled by us, it will move however it's going to move whether we trade that day or not. Only thing we can control is what we are going to do in response.
So does this mean at the start of any day, your planned strategy already has a predetermined return for that day, you just don't know it yet?
If so, does that mean attempts at planning out your trading day are futile?
So then all we can do everyday is trade according to the plan. Maintain the patience to not enter early, and the conviction to pull the trigger to not miss the move. As long as errors are eliminated and you trade perfectly according to your strategy, then you should not get angry if the trade becomes a loss, because that loss was predetermined before you made the trade anyway.
The only thing you can do is after a few weeks of trading according to the your strategy and adjusting for errors, decide if the strategy has an edge, or if it's time to try again with a different strategy.
P.S. just finished watching season 1 of Dark on Netflix, great show, I'm obsessed.
Interesting question. It may even be rhetorical. I suppose it depends on how automated your strategies are. If your strategies are totally automated, then obviously you won't control the outcome on a daily basis. Your outcome is determined by the accuracy of your anticipated expectancy, and the level of preparation you have invested beforehand. If you are a purely discretionary trader, the the outcome of the day is much more determined by how well you react to the market, how you feel that day, how much sleep you got the previous night, whether you just had a fight with your spouse, whether you are distracted more than usual, how you are reacting to the string of losses you have just encountered, whether you are over confident about the string of profits you have just encountered, and any number of other factors. It's all a matter of preparation.
Sorry, but I didn't pay much attention to your post. Most of all, I got caught up in the last sentence. I'm very fond of the Dark TV series myself. This show from episode one is fascinating with its mysterious plot. You try to get into the intertwined lines of life, to figure out who is a father from the past or a son in the present, how the time machine works, who created it, you worry for the protagonist when he tries to change the course of events in the past, but no one is able to do it. New heroes appear, and you can't keep track of their time movements. And then the series ends and you're guessing at the end of the series - "what just happened?"
You cannot determone your daily return but you can make an estimation. If you are a good trader then it will always fall within your estimation but at times it may not especially if you are having a bad day. Sometimes your trades will not work for you. Either way you can still be where you want to be interms of returns.
personally one of downfalls in the past was making $ target goals per week on how much to make . I would force trades when there wasn't . Now i have no $ amount goals . I only concentrate on setups . I try not to look at the p&l while in trade . It took about 3 weeks to get over watching my balance while trading. Its one of the best changes i have done and the money comes when you follow your plans and not the p&l. but its a hard transition takes alot of discipline.
I am not sure how we could predetermine the returns, since we do not control the market (unless you are a multi-billion dollar hedge fund who rips a large market order... but they typically don't trade that way).
As noted, we can estimate, based on our edge and history.
Is anything in life 'pre-determined'? And even if it were, where would be the fun in that?
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
I initially made the thread after finishing season 1 of Dark. After finishing season 3, the answer is clear... Quit trading!
Although not everyone wants to get out of the day trading loop. Some (Eve) are committed to consistently achieving the same outcome (making money), while others (Adam) find the loop to be too painful (emotionally), and their only way out is to go back to what made them want to day trade in the first place, and kill it!
It's the eternal question of free will vs fate, but as applied to trading. For a systems trader, programmed or manually following their rules, their return is out of their control. For experienced traders, is it better to be a purely systems trader, or systems trader + discretion when needed? In Dark, arguably the more successful characters use discretion for when to veer from the loop with each iteration.
Really this is a post about nothing and now that Dark is over, I'm ready to move on to my next obsession. Really enjoyed the 1st Lovecraft country episode.
One of the best things that has happened to me during my trading career is learning from others about issues that I once had or am currently working on. Reading your post mirrors certain traits I too had to deal with. So thanks for sharing this @hoppy123. For me, being in the business world for so long had prepped me to project for a profit target while making financial plans. This phycology was one of those things i soon discovered was hindering my success as a trader. At times I had made good profits sticking to my strategy and plans and then get "an inkling" that it was time to be done for the day but then I continue trading, aiming towards my predefined $$ goal and end up giving it all back. Then comes the frustration, the revenge trading and the likes...
What works well for me the most now is patience and knowing when to quit. A maximum of 10 winning trades per day and done or 2 losses at most (whichever comes first). So far this has been my edge (with proper fundamental and technical analysis) to being profitable as a trader.
