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Hi,
the Bearmarket Rallye is over - quite sure the next Wave down will be bigger !
Big words here .... watch an interesting interview from an Elliot-Wave-guy:
Prechter was saying the market would crash since 2002. Ask him if he got a short position since 2002! All these years he was saying that. One year he is eventually right, and people say "what a guru!!!".
If he got a short position since he said the market was toppind in 2002 he would be bankrupt.
As Harry Dent ( HS Dent | Economic Research, Trends, Forecast, Asset Protection) said in his book "The Great Depression Ahead" (written btw, about 4 years ago & predicted the beginning of this downturn was going to happen in the Summer / Fall of 2007. Harry's been right on all his prognostications. Read the book & then see if you can sleep!). Many (Robert Prechter included) are starting to agree, now. If you read Harry's book & study all the many, many, charts, examples & data to backup his charts & examples, it's clear we're in an '80' year cycle. 'Depressions' happen in an 80 year cycle - you can track them back thru time. Anything I have that's high risk is going to be closed out by the end of September & going into short-term CD's or something similar that guaranteed by the gov't. Look at it this way. If you close out your high risk investments & put the $$ in your pocket & nothing happens - well, you still have your $$ ! ! I watched $30,000 turn into $15,000 back in the 2000's. This crap gets scarier as you get older, too & your 'runway' is a lot SHORTER! Yes, things may come back in 25 years, but I'll be DEAD, so it won't matter for me. It's all relative, my friends.
I had to correct this post. I went home & checked the book. Mr. Dent wrote it in 2005 & predicted the beginning of the downturn in 2007 (on target). The government didn't admit we were in a 'recession' until about November 2008. It started well before that. Just wanted to correct my facts & figures about HS Dent.
After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
I read the first review at amazon and that was enough to keep me away from this book. It seems this guy puts out a lot of stuff so that either way he will have had some correct predictions. But if you look at the wrong predictions he's been way wrong.
I prefer to read the charts instead of listening to doom & gloom predictions. When it starts happening we'll see it in the charts.
i agree. are we investing in a 401k or are we trading. trade what you see not what you think or believe or predict. investing is nearly the inverse it's all about future prediction.
"Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." - Mark Twain
Well - i dont use such "informations" for my trading at all - cause i am trader and not investor.
Just posted it cause i found it somehow interesting.
i use to read+look around here and there also to keep my mind open for different thinkings + points of view - not only wanna think the whole world plays in a 55 tickchart only .... or so
max-td
HJay
USA
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: futures
Posts: 147 since Aug 2009
Well I for one am glad it was posted as some of us do have 401Ks (no matter how small) and even though we can't micro manage it like we would want it does help in knowing when is a good time to go to the sidelines... Which by the way I did 1 week ago... Thanks
I hope you didn't go to the sidelines because of a book or someone's blog entry with an elliot wave count. What was your criteria for going flat?
I'm not criticizing the original poster. It's good to hear these doomsday predictions. Sooner or later they always come true. I've been short during the last few weeks of this rally and regretting it. From now on I'm following the charts and if they say to go long I won't let my bias interfere.
HJay
USA
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: futures
Posts: 147 since Aug 2009
Yeah my decision was strictly chart based.. Some reverse candles were printing on the daily that I felt was atleast time to be more cautious.
