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You take price, let it stew in its own juice, and the outcome is an indicator.
I just watched my 5 min chart and my 15 min chart for TF and tried to determine whether price was heading up or down.
Bullish or bearish?
5 min chart (chart 1)
- Momentum had crossed the zero line
- Pullback oscillator had moved to neutral-positive
- Price was above EMA 20
- Price was above the linear regression indicator
15 min chart (chart 2)
- Momentum had crossed the zero line
- Pullback oscillator was clearly negative
- Price was slighty above the EMA (20)
- Price was above the linear regression indicator
Looks bullish doesn' it. It is kind of bullish, indeed. It is bullshit. Scrap all the indicators. They are liars.
Looking at the larger picture (chart 3)
It is now the forth day that TF is sitting in a narrow trading range. The trading range was defined by Monday's low and high. The range is also defined by two large fib lines. Last week's close and the weekly pivot provided support. Do not expect that prices leave that trading range today. Everbody is waiting for tomorrows unemployment figures.
Looking at the 15 min chart of today (charts 4, 5 and 6).
Price traded within the opening range most of the day. Also price traded below the pivot range since 11:00 AM. If I look at the pattern, there is a strong sell-off prior to the open, which ends at the fib line. then a sharp retracement up, followed by two smaller hills. I call this Adam-and-Eve pattern, the sting is Adam and the two balls following is eve. This is a sign of weakness. You also can see a Gartley Pattern. All this is really bearish.
So there was never any point following those stupid indicators. Just look at the price action. Bears were in control today.
You can make a case for bullishness or bearishness using anything you like - indicators, price action, sentiment, news, fundamentals, whatever.
What you have said here is "these are reasons I picked for it going up, but it went down" (probably after the fact that you knew it was going down, because of the title of your thread).
I bet there were a hundred different indicators that were bearish all day long my friend.
If you take a 60 min chart, you will see that the 200 MA provided for support. Only broke down during the last hour. Took me less than 5 minutes to find that out.
I'm not trying to flame or whatever, but saying "indicators are liars" and pulling out two charts (of the same contract) with indicators that have *probably* been cherry picked isn't much evidence to support your case.
I'm not much of a fan of indicators, and I don't read my horoscope. My sister, though, reads hers daily and finds evidence for them to be true all the time.
People don't believe what they see, they see what they believe.
