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I'm using paper trading to learn, and I'm using ToS because I like the platform. Perhaps when I trade with real money I'll use another broker.
The reason why I picked the Micro AUD is because it has the lowest margin requirement, and in some other thread I've heard it's decent for swing trading. I can't really day trade because of my job, so I'd prefer to put an order in then go about my day. One thing you'll notice is the first trade I'm going to post will be a winner, but that's because I forgot to capture my earlier losing trades. For clarification, I lost 4 trades prior to this (3 MES, and 1 M6A), so I should technically still be in the red, but since I don't have math or charts or methods for those trades saved, I won't start with them. I'm also trading in the 1-hour timeframe.
Another thing is I'll probably update this once or twice a week because of my schedule, even if I make 100 trades a week I can't update during the week. And for the purpose of simplicity, I'm going to say I have $1,000. Let's not argue about how much I should have in a real account, $1,000 is a simple round number that's easy to do the math with. Commissions won't be accounted for either.
The method I'm using is median lines and Andrew's Pitchfork. I'm going by what I found from Tim Morge and Market Geometry (all free information). I'm not the best at explaining this method, but what I do know is median lines are supposed to work with anything that fluctuates (financial markets, even for weather patterns).
I picked the median line method, because when I first got into trading, years ago, I noticed something with how the instruments were moving, like they'd break channels/support-resistance/trendlines, then go back in the direction you expected. I tried figuring out on my own what was going on, and eventually I came across median lines, Andrew's Pitchfork, Tim Morge, Market Geometry...and it aligned with what I was seeing in the markets.
Prior to this I tried stuff like indicators, Wyckoff, some other method I can't remember...all stuff that just wasn't making sense to me. Eventually I'd keep on coming back to median lines. I don't use indicators, and I don't use volume, I just follow price using candlesticks, and I draw the median lines myself. Sometimes I'll draw them with channels, and sometimes with Andrew's Pitchfork. This isn't some foolproof method either, you can't just blindly follow the line and make trades based off it. You have to have other things to back up your trade (maybe you're following the trend, maybe you see the instrument doing something funky and heading for a reversal...whatever). And even with all the factors in your favor, you can still be wrong.
Tim Morge says to have a 3:1 risk:reward ratio, and to keep your stops under/above "market structure." Basically place the stops above/below swing highs/lows because the big boys who are in control of the market won't let it go past that point (unless you're wrong about the direction). Whereas bad stops get blown all the time.
Median lines help to find an entry and find an exit. There's also a rhythm to them, you'll notice the instrument following it in a way that makes sense.
Alright, that's enough of an intro, I'll update more here if necessary.
Look at the very right of the chart, I wish I circled it, but what really caught my attention was the instrument being in a downtrend, spitting out that giant down bar, then hours later spitting out that giant up bar. The strong upward move going back into the median line told me this is going to go up.
I used the dashed line for my entry, setting it around the .702 level. There's a better entry than that, but I'm not able to watch the chart all day so that's good enough. I placed the stop at .700, well below the prior swing low. If this moves below .700, it most likely means I was wrong about the direction and want to get out ASAP.
The exit was set for .708, which is approximately the price M6A would hit if in one giant bar it ran right up to the top. And yes, this means you adjust your exit as price moves forward. This was a 3:1 risk:reward, which is good, so I took the trade
Notice the green circle on the on the left, when price went above that swing high, I moved my stop to break even. This is just in case it doesn't go my way, I don't lose any money (besides commissions). And notice what I circled for my exit, that's when I got out, around .7083. I got cold feet and got out early. I definitely made 3:1, but I could've made more if I wasn't scared. It was also approaching 4pm EST, so I figured I'd rather be safe than sorry.
This last image is to show that it actually hit the top line, I could've made profit of 3.5:1 instead.
So as of right now I'm at $1,060 (not going to count the extra $3), which means I'm up +6% so far.
If trading goes well in sim (positive) then you better trade live. Small but live trading will do much more for your learning experience.
When using one entry strategy (longer term) then trade more instruments.
3 losers and 1 winner. You forgot to capture the losers but show us the winner after the fact.
Go back to the chart and annotate entry, exit, thoughts and feelings of those losing trades. That is what brings you further.
