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So I used to keep a written journal of my picks and what the perspective outcomes were (my price targets) now a year and a half later I can look back and see they’ve outperformed. 21 out of 27 stock picks have outperformed my expectations quite well in fact. What changed was that instead of sticking with it I left day trading to go out and work with my hands as I was getting to be a bit too hefty. So I moved my investments to income stocks and REITs. And here I am again moving to put a small percentage back into the market in more risk heavy investments. I’m also no longer just looking at indicators and fundamentals but including Elliott wave analysis as well to help with determining sentiment. I plan on making regular updates to this journal in the hopes that my insights or in some cases lack thereof can help other traders starting or seasoned as well as myself become better at what we do.
I will likely not have the opportunity to post every day. But I will do my best to post as often as possible on this thread. One of my recent picks. PHK, Pimco High Income Fund; it’s primary objective is to seek high current income. Capital appreciation is a secondary objective. The primary investments are US - dollar denominated corporate debt obligations of varying maturities and other corporate income securities. The major holdings seem somewhat stable. I’m my opinion it’s still fairly cheap for what it represents.
With a monthly disbursement and a decent return over the year on price movement (see below).
The price movement action shows a dip in sentiment for this fund recently just after getting into September. I expect sentiment moving forward however to continue bullish overall upward and onward and I’ll take any corrections I can as buying opportunities.
With recent sentiment in the market showing a preparation for bearish correction we can expect this to draw down on the price action but I think that only means in the longer term, 2-5 years, we can expect a nice continuation of near 11% yield if not a little higher even. In my opinion it shows a lot more room for growth in price action. May expect a drawback on yield because of this. But I don’t see it dropping below 5% anywhere in the next 10 years. Making this pick a no brainer for me.
Let’s take a look at its holdings.
As you can see the majority of its holdings are in 5-10/20 year maturities so PHK is definitely a long term hold for me and a solid foundation for growing my passive income strategy. And with over 500 holdings I’d expect them to have a lot of room for growth before the yield begins to take any serious impact.
This is just my opinion. Not saying you should do or take any actions based on my opinion. Do your own research. Please feel free to comment or like as you see fit. I’d love to hear some other thoughts on this.
Let see another recent pick. WWR, West Water Resources. This energy metals company recently rebranded after moving away from uranium and into lithium and graphite. After looking at two quarters beating estimates on earnings and adding diversification they are looking at potentially getting delisted. However they’ve been granted until March 2019 to get their share price above $1. The price action suggests that the bears are exhausted and the bulls are ready to sweep in. Given the recent earnings wins and their recent acquisition in Alabama Graphite in addition uranium prices are starting to rebound nicely. After halting uranium mining when prices went south for the winter they’ve had a tough time over the last 5+ years the bears have been hitting them rather heavily. But I see a nice turnaround for them as their earnings have begun to pick up and this is the turnaround I’ve been waiting for. I’ve been following the company for a while and look forward to their 10k at the end of the year. Let’s see some charts.
As you can see here a nice pattern emerging showing a setup for a massive uptick. I’m upgrading them from “waiting to bottom out” to “ready to break out” status personally.
It’s currently pivoting momentarily crossing the 40 days moving average headed upward. Already crossing the 9 day moving average on Friday. Having picked up a few shares just before this newfound uneasiness in the bears on this one I’m quite proud of myself. I’d expect another quarter or two of losses before seeing serious heating up of the profits when they start seriously mining. But ultimately only time will tell if they have the client base to move all this newfound lithium to once they’ve taken it out of the ground.
As this is a very high risk investment at the moment I’ve only picked up a few shares nothing massive so that should I lose on this bet I won’t lose much.
Hearing that a lot of cash flowing out of the market in credit ETFs and tech stocks. Not surprising with mortgage rates stalling and fed raising rates, and China’s chip hack. But cash imo will move into shorter term floating rate corporate debt. It’ll be interesting to see if I’m right about this. I’d expect the tech sector to weigh heavily on the market overall as people begin to short tech companies affected by the chip hack. Interesting that it took 3 years for the disclosure and it affects the biggest companies that have such a large share of the market such as Apple and alphabet. Timed? Maybe. But only time will tell.
Just a quick update seeing a zig zag emerge in GE price movement, looks like the latest bearish sentiment impulse in WWR is exhausting itself rather quickly. PHK and GOF (haven’t had a minute to talk about GOF yet in my journal), are both showing uncertainty in corporate debt and worsening sentiment in debt otherwise. Leaves a nice setup for a hold pattern to wait for an entry to pick up cheap equity. GE looks like we may be waiting for the 10k filing and WWR if beats estimates next earnings report could show a nice reversal to bullish. Overall equities and debt movement are showing me this is the correction I called for recently. Fixed income has some trouble ahead for investors scared of risk. But at the end of the correction should have very nice and cheap entry points.
