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Not taking trades because the setups seem too obvious
Every time I find and learn a detail or a way of looking at the market that helps me in my overall trading environment, over a given amount of time I start to feel that these setups seem too obvious and that everyone can see them. Because of that I stop taking the trades, I feel, well hell, I easily saw that coming and I am sure that others have too, so I talk myself out of the trade to avoid any traps. I use a combination of Cumulative Delta /Profiling, Midas and order flow which is obviously readily available to anyone. I am really good a reading CD charting thought which I know a lot people don't necessarily use. Sometimes I have to remind myself that I knew nothing of this years ago...
Anyone else go thru these frustrations? How have you overcome them?
For the most part they work out, which is why it makes this so frustrating. Not to mention the "why didnt I just take the trade according to plan" floating around in my head afterwards...
To me they seem obvious... they may not be. I trade alone with no circle at all....
You need better way to qualify this. You might or might not be on to something. I mean if you quantify or at least qualify you could test. There is a cone of uncertainty after any trade is entered. So, you need some measure of confidence whatever you are doing can work in order to accept the uncertainty. And, yes you can be sure that the "bigs" are going to be trading against you and any technical method you can think of. It might help if you know why it should work, when it shouldn't, etc. They won't be trading against you personally, of course. But, they will be trading against price. Really, you have 2 adversaries: the HFT which will be trading against you and often on similar information but with superior advantage and then you have traders who will be trading against price and have a fundamental or informational advantage.
But, you can also suspect that any edge is already traded by at a minimum by other hedge funds. But, if you cannot qualify it then you probably should simplify and eliminate such thoughts as it will just be a distraction. Simple answer, if you can qualify it then track it and see how it works. If you cannot then you are just spinning your wheels so to speak: it is going to take you out of market centric focus. Also, that type of self-talk is unlikely to help. It is better to try to focus on the market. You can have an intuition or confidence certainly but it should be based on observable data.
You mentioned traps.. this is fear of being wrong or not wanting to make the commitment to take the trade. Basically you are afraid of losing today. You need to get past today and look to the future. I recently overcame this. I actually get to quote myself here. How often does that happen!?!
I appreciate everyones input on this. I know this is a demon to be dealt with from within... reasons one gives themselves not sticking to the plan thats laid out for fear of failure. Just wanted to get it out there and see what others think...
