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ES Trading Journal - Price Action and Context


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ES Trading Journal - Price Action and Context

  #1 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

Greetings all, I have finally decided to start my journal. I'm currently focused on trading the ES, although things have been quite slow since I've started dedicating real time to my trading education(since June).


About me:
I am in the process of finishing my doctorate in chemistry, and am currently working full time on the west coast. Because I work full time, I am only able to trade the morning session from 6:30 - 8:30am PST. This is great because I can trade RTH before work, however it does feel limiting.

I originally started with a scalping method via Mack's [AUTOLINK]Price Action[/AUTOLINK] strategy. While I think Mack is genuinely here to help other traders, and that he himself makes his money from trading, I think Mack is able to see a lot more of the market through the price action than I am. When I try to implement his method, it feels like I am missing something.

I have recently discovered GruttePier's journal and am ~halfway through it. I truly admire his dedication to trading, meticulous analysis of his results, and his willingness to implement new ideas. Because of this, I'm borrowing some of his methodolog: his pre-market routine, context log, and indicators.

I will start this journal by trading on the simulator using Multicharts .NET and a CQG data feed provided by AMP futures.

After going through GruttePier's journal, I will start with two contracts and a stop loss of three points for both. Initial profit targets will be somewhat discretionary based on price levels, but should be around the 3 and 5+ point range.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few things I want to say, but hopefully this journal will be long and illustrious, so they should come out eventually.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13


ONH: 2568
ONL: 2561.50

Price has risen overnight back to the pivot point, and bounced off of a larger channel I have identified from the 30 minute chart.

Japan: up 0.5%
China: down 0.5%
UK: Neutral
Oil: up 1%
gold: down 0.2%

Log:

Immediately on open market is trading at the PP
- TRIN is neutral at 1, and TICK is printing 700+
TICK still printing at a 500+ range, I take a long position aiming for +3 points, risking 3 points. We are currently bouncing off the PP
- This may have been overtrading, Price plummets through the VWAP taking out my stop, TICK is printing around 0, and TRIN is still up
- Price is pulling back to VWAP, will short once it reaches, with a target of yesterday's lows
-Shorted @2565, price action 2nd entry tshort after a pullback to the 21 EMA, internals neutral
-Market immediately moves in my favor for 1.75 points, then pulls back to VWAP, trades in a range before breaking through to the upside, taking out my stops.


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  #4 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

China, slightly up
Japan, slightly down,
UK, slightly up
oil, slightly down
/VX, slightly up

ON:
L: 2560.50
H: 2566.25


Price made a new low overnight and has been trading around the VWAP and bouncing off the pivot point. Slightly negative bias today. We've fallen out of the channel I've recognized on the 30min chart

We're trading in an area of S/R that has held for the last week or so.


Log:

Price is bouncing off the pivot point, trin is climbing, TICK is still printing -500, not going to take any trades for the moment

With TRIN creeping higher and TICK printing ~ -400 still I decided to submit an order and execute my bias, short at 2562.50
Price moves in my favor, and its the overnight low area, and lower area of S/R that I have identified, stumbles a little before punching out the lower side, target filled. I'm not trying for runners with the recent market profile, +6 points.

Price bounces off the S1 now. I expect another move down, off the EMA or VWAP however.

Price rebounds to 21 EMA, and TRIN immediately jumps higher, as well as TICK printing lower, I take a 1 contract trade at 2560.50. Profit target is 2557.50, below S1, price moves in my favor and fills my target very quickly. +3 points

Is this what a proper ES market is like? It's nice.

Well, I need to go for now, but today felt good to me. Yesterday I was clicking buttons, and felt like I was trying to read tea leaves in the internals. Today felt more like I was going on the right path. The thing that I thought about after yesterday was that it wasn't just the number the TRIN and TICK are printing, but the direction as well.

Happy trading to all.


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  #5 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

ONH: 2562.75
ONL: 2556.50

Japan, neutral
HK, slightly down,
London, slightly up
gold and oil slightly down/neutral

Price made a new high, then a higher low, and lower high. It's been bouncing off an area of S/R at 2562 I have identified. /VX still above 12.

I think we'll test the 2568 area, but I'm not sure we'll break through. We've started an overall downtrend on the 120min chart, but it could reverse back to the upside.

Market opens, bounces off the 2562, then the VWAP, TICK and TRIN are moving in a bearish direction rapidly, I take a short at 2560.75, market moves against me and stops out 1 contract at 2 points, internals are still on my side. I decide to reload 1 contract at 2562. Price bounces off the VWAP, TRIN still on my side, TICK making lower highs, staying in the trade. TICK and TRIN are still in my favor, and price has finally rebounded to the VWAP. Price Moves in my favor through the VWAP, and I close the trade 1pt from my initial profit target at 2559.25 for a total of 4.25pts - the 2pts lost, so 2.25pts of profit.

Internals started to move against me and I had been in the trade for almost 30 minutes. Price obviously moved to fill my profit target shortly after I closed the trade.

Price reversed almost immediately, so I guess it was a good call. Reached all the way back up to overnight highs, TICK is all over the place, and TRIN is creeping downward, going to stay out of the market right now.

Price peaked above the HOD, and lummeted, probably making for yesterday's close and RTH low. I missed the move and I'm not sure I would have taken it anyway. But I have to leave for work now.

Happy trading.



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  #6 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

No significant update today. Spent most of the morning switching my platform from Multicharts.NET to Sierra Charts to see if I like the indicators better.

Have a good weekend.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

Slightly down from the Sunday open. Price has been in a trading range between 2571.25 and 2575.

China, slightly down,
Japan, neutral,
UK, slightly down
Bonds, up
Oil, up
Gold, up
/VX, up

ONH: 2575
ONL: 2571.25
S/R @ 2569
S/R @ 2578-2580
S/R @ 2563.75

Slightly negative bias today, bonds are up, gold is up, possible flight to safety. /VX is up overnight.

Market opens, and it looks like my bias was wrong. TICK is moving higher, and TRIN is moving lower. Price is moving higher as well. We're approaching the overnight high, which is also my R1 band, so we'll see what happens when we reach it.

Price hits 2575, and pulls back, internals are still looking positive, so I buy two contracts at 2574.75. Stop loss of 3 points each, and profit targets of 3 and 5 points.

Price seems to lose steam, and internals start to move against me. I close the position for a 1.5pts loss total. We're in a tight trading range that may continue.

I stopped trading shortly after this, but turns out price went to 1 tick below by original profit target, and then plummeted ten points. My overall bias was correct for the day.


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  #8 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

ONH: 2576
ONL: 2563.50

Price pushed lower after hours yesterday and appears to have closed the gap during the London session.
Global markets are pretty much neutral, except for London which is up 0.75%

Bonds are slightly up and oil is neutral
/VX is down

S/R areas: 2577.50
- 2571.25
2569
2566

I anticipate an initial test of the 2578 area, and then possibly a downswing into a range day after that.

Edit: One thing I am going to work on is not trading unless I am absolutely certain of it. Often times I hit the button in the first 5 minutes of the session because things are usually moving pretty fast, and I get some serious FOMO.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13

I know I said I would wait, but price seemed to have trouble pushing higher than the overnight lows, and there was also a divergence between VIX and TICK/TRIN. VIX was ticking higher, while TICK was neutral and TRIN was climbing lower. I take a short for 2 contracts at 2575.

Profit target 1: 2572
Profit target 2: 2570

Price moves in my favor, but is bouncing off the trend line I drew, VIX drops, but TICK rebounds to 0, but TRIN jumps. Price moves back to my breakeven, going to let this one ride I think. TICK has yet to spend more than a few seconds above 0 today.

VIX plummets, TRIN starts heading lower, and TICK has spent the last few minutes above 0, I close the trade at 2575.50 for -1pt and price obviously starts to move in my favor immediately.

I re enter at 2573.75 for 2 contracts
Profit target: 2570.75
Profit target 2: 2568.75, this will be managed aggressively, the market has been choppy and shallow lately.

Profit target 1 filled by pretty aggressive moves downward, we've hit the pivot point for the day and pushed below it. Profit target 2 seems feasible. Internals are cooperating. Profit target 2 filled!

+8 points.

VIX is still high on the day, will look for a pullback to re-enter on.

We pushed to a previously identified area of S/R at 2562.25, and pulled back to S1 after riding a VWAP band down. We've pushed through S1 an d are probably headed back to the 2569-2570 area (VWAP/S/R area). TRIN still printing higher, but TICK and VIX are showing bullish.

Well, looks like we're in an uptrend now as price has skyrocketed through the VWAP and is approaching the pivot point.

I'm probably going to call it right now, as I'd like to get to work a bit early today.

+7pts on the day.


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  #10 (permalink)
 Arikash 
NorCal, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Multicharts .NET
Broker: Amp Futures, CQG
Trading: ES
Posts: 16 since May 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 13


ONH: 2584.75
ONL: 2575.50
S/R: 2577.50

Other markets basically neutral
gold and oil slightly up
bonds slightly up

Price fell during the start of the globex session and has slowly ground it's way back up.

-Price is pushing higher upon the open. Probably going to reach R! at ~2586.50 if it can break through 2585, an area of resistance last week.

-Price pushed to 2586.25, and hos slowly creeped down to 2584.50ish. I think this is just a pullback, but since the trading range for the day has been extremely narrow, I am going to stay out of the market.

-Market jumped past my R1 to 2587, and is probably off to the races to drift higher for the rest of the day.

-We've had a pullback to the VWAP/21EMA. It looks like there was a bit of a fight over 2586 but the buyers won, and market will continue to drift up. It's still been a a shallow day in the ES, so I'm going to stay out of it.


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Last Updated on November 13, 2017


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