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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together


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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together

  #1 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

My active price pattern day trading has been on hiatus since Dec 2016 when I went into a 30% draw down with way too many consecutive losing trades. My account is overall about 180% after commissions before I pulled the plug on myself. I suppose this is my psychological limit of pain.

I've since been learning AMT for the past 3 months and have admitted to myself that there's something else going on behind the price patterns. Been reading Steidlymayer, Dalton and the CME Study Guide (about 3 times over). Watching videos from Dalton, Mesch, FT71, Forex Trading Ideas, Apple investor. Each one has their own emphasis.

I'm going to stick to the core CME concepts of Acceptance / Rejection, Migration of Value, Retesting, Rotation, and Range extension. I'm going to stay away from any type of order flow reading, LVN testing, pocket filling, inventory analysis, competitor psychology, etc that FT71, Mesch, Dalton focus on respectively. I think I've got the mechanical concepts down. Things went well the past 2 weeks of June paper trading and I'm willing to take Big Mike up on the challenge and give it a go. My goal is to figure out what is working for me and where I go wrong in the moment.

Been listening to Chat with Traders podcast during walks and workouts since Feb 2017. The high level takeaways I've gotten from the first 72 episodes are
1) If I don't learn Patience, I can't be a trader.
2) I must specialize and get good at only one market. This is contrary to the CME advise of "trade setups, not markets", but watching more than 1 futures market is too much for me at this point in my education.

Here goes it.

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  #3 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38


Abbreviated trading day today preceding holiday July 4th.

I'm on PST at the moment, and it's a Monday after having a few drinks last night at a party. A bit groggy this morning and didn't get to the computer until 10am EST. This is the macro picture I saw. A 10am ISM news event on the agenda.

A perfect bell curve that rejected the top edge of developing value in a downward trend.
I had been chasing this short last Friday (June 30) and got the tail end of the last hour close.
It seems to have decided to Initiate or at least Rotate this morning and I missed the initiation point.

So short entries at developing VAH, or retests of previous VPOCs were in my plan.
Trend following entries until a test or break of VAL.
Then reevaluate and look for Rotational Longs or Rejection off the VAL for further shorting.
Symmetry of the last leg targets.

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  #4 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I was irritated at myself that I woke up so late.
Put on an aggressive short.
Price had sold off from VWAP and the profile was a "b" shape, accepting lower prices.
My assumption was that a 2nd deviation of range extension happens lower to balance out the curve.
Shorted the HVN just below VWAP assuming it would be a retest.
In retrospect, the Fib expansion didn't line up with anything and it was a clue that my assumption was wrong.

NT8 decided to leave a Cancel Pending order in the Database so I had to clear out all my actual trade execution markers today. Going forward on Wed I will have actual execution markers on the charts.

Forgot to mention that I am going for 5.00 points or 10 ticks of NQ risk. That's $100 per 1 contract.
Targets are a symmetry measurement from the initiation point of range extension - if i'm so lucky as to get range extension.
If the symmetry point falls inside of the value and price structure, then a growth model is assumed and a 2.618 range extension is used instead.

This trade stopped for -3.50.

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  #5 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

Embarrassed about this one. Thought about not journaling it but what the heck.

I still wanted to be short because of the major VAH rejection, developing minor profile "b" shape acceptance.
Was not shaken from the preceding trade because I knew it was an aggressive attempt.

Here's what happened:
I was eyeing the 36.25 level at the Grey horizontal line because it was a clear LVN and a demarcation point of where the profile shape stopped.
I want to short the top of value which I guessed was 35.25, 4 ticks lower.
This was based on previous experience of when markets test value extremes and reject off the LVNs.

I had already taken a -3.50 loss on the aggressive short.
I RELUCTANTLY put on a short at VPOC because shorting against VPOC tests IS in my plan.
Price gently broke VPOC by 3 ticks and I thought for SURE it was going to test 35.25 because I'm so smart and can see the edge of the profile clearly.
So I moved the target up for a 2 tick profit, only to watch price reject VPOC and begin it's initiation run straight down for this minor timeframe.
UGH.

A Horrible trade. I did not accept the risk in the trade to begin with because I was reluctant about shorting VPOC and not where I thought the VAH truly was.
Now that I look back at it, price did actually test to the tick, the VAH. It just looked weird to me at the time like it should fill out the curve a little bit higher.

+0.50 on this trade

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  #6 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

Still wanted to be short, and I was pretty certain after a VPOC reject and price wave structure that the initiation range extension had begun.
Price was now testing VAL and if it broke, the AMT theory is that price will then reject the VA and extend range.

I shorted the VAL parameter with a stop based on non-re-acceptance back into the previous VA.

Based on the profile and a read off the price initiation point, and an assumption that I could trade for a 2nd deviation extension, I came up with a symmetry target 40 ticks lower.

And finally I had a correct read on the current timeframe auction.

+20.0 on this trade.

That target low ended up being a structure low so I'm glad to train myself and reinforce the theories on symmetric deviation movement held up in this case.

That was it for this day.

Before I had to reset the NT database I saw that I was -$70 gross loss, and $275 net gain for the day.
I won't be resetting the database and clearing out trade markers any more unless NT jams orders up again.

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  #7 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I spent some time this holiday reading some of the other journals, focusing on the other AMT ones.
Some of the journals do it almost real time, saving time at the end of the day, so I'm going to try the same.
I told my wife about the journaling and she thinks it's a great idea.


The NQ this morning from a major unit context is back into value and looks like it's correcting sideways, getting ready for a rally just at the VALow.

Looks like it's had a strong push during the London session to get back into value. So who am I to fight what London wants?
I'm looking for longs to trade back through to the upper edge of the VAHigh / VAtop near what looks like 5670.0.
I am looking for symmetry moves.


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  #8 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

It's not easy for me to get up at 5:30am every morning local time PST for me for the pre market.
I try, but I almost always fall back and end up missing the US open.
Today I was at the computer after the open around 10am EST.

I did my Major analysis and on the minor timeframe, looks like a nice channel with what looks like 5 waves down.
2 units are visible, the first very small, but a very significant volume spike 77.25 that may look to retest in the future should this thing fall this morning.

The upper, more obvious unit has a nice VPOC and price is certainly rotating around it.
The price action character is obviously overlapping, so I'm calling it definitively corrective through the Value area.
It's already tested below the VALow. That last leg down is usually the true initiation point, so I've measured Fib extensions form it against the past 2 highs.
I come up with 2 fib clusters.
The nearest one is at 98.25 and looks to be just at the lower edge of value.
This is where AMT is a bit of Art over Science. The calculated VAL at 68.3% is already tested and violated in the Orange/Grey area. So that hard parameter has obviously not held.
I'm going to guess that my first fib cluster at 98.25 is a good first attempt level, so long as indicated by my Chart Execution marker.

I am willing to stop out at the void pocket below it and try long gain at 90.25 and again at the Big volume level at 77.00 below that.
So 3 bites at the apple for this long trade back into Major value.
Some divergence in the oscillator, but weak against the Zero line. Would like to see it above Zero line, but life ain't perfect.

I'm long right now watching the trade work.

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  #9 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

This trade is working out perfectly.
I think I've found the initiation point at 604.75 so I'm swinging back the Fib extension to 60.00 and getting a 161.8 match up with the current top. That's my prorpotional grid evidence. The 77.00 level lines up at the tiny unit initiation point with the inverse 61.8%, so that's good too.
But the initiation volume spike level at 607.75 is the real nugget I'm looking for. That's my true initiation point behind the VPOC. So this market is actually contracting a bit.
My target is symmetry.


But in AMT terms, Volume is following price, Value is migrating up.
There is a clear "P" shape in the profile.
I must hold and anticipate higher prices.
I think that symmetry is at 53.50 and is also linedup with the VAHigh of a previous unit to the left.

OCO orders are in. I'm aiming to take max range extension out of this move at 53.50.
I'm thankful that I didn't have to get stopped out of this one and try 2 more times to go long.
I may end up going short at 63.50, depends how the oscillator and Profile look up there.



Edit: Adding another thought as it consolidates and builds volume. The VWAP for this unit is steadily rising and should provide some support should things go south on me. So I'm moving stop behind the developing VALow, but I'm going to hit the eject button if the VWAP gets pierced by a big bar. The thought is that a computer(s) with a large order is causing this move and it's programmed to execute on VWAP. So if that computer doesn't show up again, I'm out.
Vol profile still looks strong to the upside. Volume is acceptance. Markets self organize into curves. I should get some range extension to balance out the curve since the profile shape is so high up.

Edit 2: Major timeframe unit appears to be coming up on a descending VWAP.
The VAH is up there near 80, but the profile itself is really tough to read and sloppy with a spike just below 66.
I'm gonna stick to my symmetry timeframe target, and I'm leery of that descending VWAP line.
Could be a nice short. Perhaps for me. It won't let me attach a major timeframe picture.

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  #10 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38


I decided to take profit here at the developing VAH.
The price character looks like it is staying within developing value and can rotate to see the VAL.
I did not have the current unit Fib grid, just the orthodox low on my chart and the market has respected the Symmetry 200% of that current unit expansion.
I missed it and feel some remorse.
The oscillator is over Zero line, but the current micro pattern looks like I can reestablish the long from the VALow if it is warranted. That's the upper most Green arrow for a planned long at the lower edge of the Grey box.

So I'm booking a profit here now and may take a long from a revisit of the developing VALow.

That's +42.00 or 168 ticks for a gross of $840 on this trade based on -4.00 / 16 ticks / $80 of risk.
That's better than 10:1 ratio. I know others can do better, but that's good capital efficiency by my performance.

Edit: Lunchtime for me now. Maybe another long sets up, but I tend to give it back if I keep trading. I'll see what happens at 1:30EST Price right now has rallied beyond my take profit level and gotten in to establish a double distribution. So it's about to make a full symmetry into my original target. Patience - I must get better at it. If I had only done nothing it's like another +10.00 points or 40 ticks or $200.

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Last Updated on April 4, 2018


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