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Supply/Demand - Revisited: A journal into the unknown
Saw the journal challenge and thought lets do it! Like the name of the journal implies my trading method is based on the supply demand method which I have seen first a few years ago by Sam Seiden. It was a few years ago I joined a small team trying to achieve fame using a strategy based on the supply-demand zones. As can be expected this did not work out.. I continued with the project which did work out ;-) That was create a poker-bot. I am now a semi-professional automated poker player
Few months back I came across a good colleague (also member here, perhaps he will reveal himself :-) and we started talking about trading. This triggered me to revisted the initial code base and try to fix the issues we had a few years ago and add some extra features.
This journal challenge got me over the edge to just post my results here. To come short I am a trading n00b, have a very limited understanding of trading but I am a solid programmer and have a very strong will to get things done. As a reference my poker-bot project (one of many) took 6 years, in the end I graduated with honours in the field of artificial intelligence, so yeah I have some confidence. Realistic though to know that a very small percentage of all the initiatives and traders are successful!
Lastly and then i'll post the trading of the last 2 days. I am on SIM only so all is fake if you wish to call it. I am looking for constructive feedback in order to help me improve my strategy.
Thanks for this opportunity and looking forward to your replies.
Below three trades last 2 days. I'll give some more details the coming hours, kids are now bouncing up the wall
Looks great ! I really want to see your next posts !
I wish you the best in your journey, and if i can give you a advice, in trading, any AI or Automated Strategy, will only be as good than the person that had the ideas, and/or that created the system.
I know a few peoples who did what you are currently doing (not in the futures market but its not important), and the thing that make them succeeding with creating their system, is simple :
They didn't not try to create the system first, they learned first, then with what they learned, they created the system. But first, but to create a profitable robot or system, you need to be profitable first !
You must be pretty solid has a développer, its sure !, but trading is not like cheese or even poker. You can't build a system around probabilities, and without first having a way of seing the markets, that create consistent results (in my opinion, there is no "way" of seing the markets that are dominante, unlike chemistry, but its more like astro-physic, we don't agree at all, but we can learn from each others, to create a better view and idea of the universe. We are never going to be 100% right, but the goal is to get the direction right, for astro-physic and for trading).
So, when you build your script, think like a trader, not like a programmer . And don't try to get the magic results of big banks and hedge funds, that with some robots, they loose only 2 or 3 trades in a 1000.
Give yourself some time to learn, that's, again in my opinion, the best advice to applied in trading, to reach success !
Thanks Robinson94 for your good feedback much appreciated
Have an open trade. The target zone is marked by the diamond below. The red diamond above marks the stop/loss. Price should fall the target zone. Let's see what happens.
I'm really new at this supply/demand stuff, but I would look into scratching the trade after several retests of the supply zone. Marc Fisher (oil trader who pioneered the ACD system) is a big fan of cutting the cord if, after a certain time, the trade isn't working.
It would be easier to give encouragement and constructive comments if we knew more about what you're trying to get out each trade. Are the targets always the same? Is the stop the same? Will you scale out or in? Tell us a little more and perhaps we can help you fashion an approach that works.
I'm very much a support/resistance trader, but I'm likely shooting for smaller, faster targets. Still happy to pitch in if I know a little more about what you're trying to accomplish other than being profitable.
i understand, will do. I have 2 different approaches, one that I call dynamic stop/loss and targets and the other fixed. The fixed ones start a trade when there is an opposite zone present. For instance when a demand zone is formed and price comes back down to this zone then the trigger is pulled. If a supply zone is above the demand zone than the below of the supply zone will act as my target. This is fixed. The other way around is the same.
There are also cases when there are no opposite zones but when price does come back to the zone and a trade could be made. I then use the concept of dynamically setting the stops and targets. My last trade this morning is an example of that.
The initial stop loss I set way out of range, don't want it to hit any time soon, I then set new stops and targets on trend reversals. The red diamonds. For this trade there is a trend reversal around 47.03, a new stop is set and price falls through it ending the trade.
I would like to have some good suggestions of how to set up the stop dynamically so my trade shows the best result.
if I had put it where the arrow is my trade would have been much better. Hope this gives some more idea. I can elaborate more ofc but want to keep my posts readable :-) thanks for your responses!
. And don't try to get the magic results of big banks and hedge funds, that with some robots, they loose only 2 or 3 trades in a 1000. 
