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Hello fellow trader, it is good to be here among think alike people
First of all, big appreciation to @Bigmike for this forum and its generous members. This is definitely place for higher learning and growing.
This is my first public journal, it's been on and off with my daily journal but today I decide to have this as my commitment "to do whatever it takes necessary" to improve my trading skill. After years of swing trading spot FX and CFD with average results, I’m going to put my full effort and attention on ES due to its unique characteristic ebb and flow which I believe provide very short term trading opportunity.
I just open futures account for this project and going to trade either live or close to live with combine structure. Trading sim won’t give me much benefit at this juncture, daily mantra is “when in doubt trade with minimum size to get involved” So it’s going to be baby step process from now with focusing on execution and survival as main objective.
Market:
ES
Methodology:
1. Elliot waves as primary methodology,
2. Market and volume profile for intraday level and nuance.
3. A little GANN technique for longer time frame bias
Entry and exit:
I use order flow as confirmation for entry and exit in defensive manner, basically looking for absorption or declining pressure at specific juncture to get in with 4 – 8 ticks risk, scale out half of the contracts for 2 – 5 ticks to risk free ASAP and targeting for completion wave for 8-25 ticks with the remaining.
My temporary goals for this journal are:
1. Improve preparation, think ahead the more likely scenarios and its variants for entry and exit levels.
2. Improve accountability, pushing myself to think and verbalize in methodological logic.
3. Improve state of mine during trading activity; recognize specific condition or event causing undesirable effects.
Screenshots pre and post analysis will be posted and keeping my fingers crossed.
Trade well everyone
both counts are bullish due to monthly market VPOC 2259.50. and since the correction seems hasn't complete, the best setup if there is divergence at 2262.25 area previous wave A for completion wave C of zig-zag correction.
daily RTH market profiles has been shaping b form for the last 3 days could means that buyers has been bidding and step up at end of day
if the 2262.25 area don't hold, look for wave [e] 2251.75 area for long
the counting seems intact with zig-zag for wave 2 and wave 3 of 3 is in progress. but since in corrective environment , extension could be limited and wave 3 could be formed in 3 wave abc.
don't fight wave 3 wait for abc to up side for wave 4 to short and keep target minimum for now.
lesson for today :
1. should consider gap play for next counting
2. should consider more isolate place for trading since got many distraction today
Preferred count
Considering HVN at 63.50 – 66.00 on daily acting as support and ES tendency to form triangle. It is more likely ES is in triangle shape with wave [e] confirm at FOMC today
Alternate count
Wave B hasn’t complete yet with 2285.00 as validation reference. Alternation guide wave a(gold) is straight wave c(gold) could be the opposite. ON VPOC 77.50 act as support, if price move down preferred count is more likely scenario.
Prepared to long at 2270.50 area and 2267.75 if buyer step in and risk is acceptable . usually have to park order just to get in or be extra quick.
reference point
22753.75 yesterday RTH close
2285.00 previous swing high
2264.50 previous swing low
Hmmm, alternate count worked but it only lay out road map in general. Turn out today I’m shorting trending P shape market. Why? It supposes to be the other way around.
Well, seems like analyzing small variant during trading is very hard and exhausting, it should be done before. Trading supposes to be about execution in big portion, analytic thinking may reduce intuitive side, I’m not sure but I cannot thinking and react fast enough for the whole trading hour so one side should be maintained minimum.
Lesson for today : quite mind --- breathing slow and deep --- react --- just do it --- do not think
trade1 : reason was market trade at Naked VPOC from 27th January area and buyer absorbed up to 4K contracts.
trade2 : reason was buyer absorbed up to 3.7K contracts at area as trade 1 before
Hi
I need to spend some nights at hospital to accompany family member, so trading will be off for awhile. Part of analysis will be continued to keep in touch with market
We have light catalyst this week. I still preferred the corrective counting for this juncture until proven the other way. If price trade beyond 2299.50 with decent volume the counting should be in wave 3 modes.
Preferred count:
Validation point: price trades outside parallel trend line should consider bullish.
Wave C of X has already completed in 100% extension of wave A of X and still within parallel trend line, 5-3-5 waves downs is the next consideration
- Look price action at GAP 2283.50, 2279.75 and 270.00, look for absorption after price bounce from this level to short
- Look for GAP closing and absorption
Alternate count:
Validation count: price trades above 2299.50 should be considered bullish
Wave 5 of C of B has complete with Over Night made minimum requirement for wave 5 with new high but still within constraint of parallel trend line and 1.32 extension of wave a of B. characteristic of wave B are price trade in sharp manner to origin of wave a where bullish consensus seems obvious. If this is wave 3 price required to travel to 1.618 extension of wave 1 at 2301.00. Since ES hasn’t there yet, corrective waves will be considered with more weight.
Reference point:
2299.50 ultimate high
2296.75 previous swing
2295.00 decreasing volume from previous down volume profile.
2290.75 yesterday RTH close
2288.00 single print on market profile
2285.00 single print on market profile
ES form bell curve shape profile yesterday which indicates breakout ahead either up or down, but since there is HVN above acting as resistance, i'm gonna assume breakdown is more likely.
ES alternate count
Reference point:
2294.00 wave 2 high
2283.00 gap high
2277.00 gap low
2286.50 settlement price
Wave 2 high is 1 tick shy away from previous wave 5 of B . if this high taken, it is more likely wave counting should be change to more bullish count
Trading plan :
Gap play :
If price open below 91.50 and retrace to this area and offer hold, join the offer. Watch the closing price 86.50 there should be temporary support. If this is wave 3 of C price should closing gap down to 2277.00 and some
Look for 3 waves up after closing gap for wave 4 continuation to downside.
If price reach 83.00-79.75 area and retrace more than 4 points, reevaluate the counting
if there is XTL(proprietary indicator) sell signal after open, join the short as long as below VWAP
preferred count : variation of alternate count either 5 waves to downside or just in 3 waves
