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Red Rooster for Year of the Rooster in Chinese Zodiac
The journal will be for ES with a goal of 25 pts per week.
My system is formula based discretionary trading with the primary goal of catching the HOD or LOD whichever is first, and secondary goal of all swings of 6 pts profit potential that I spot.
Generally, my estimates of HOD or LOD are considered ranges of +/- 1.5pts to the estimate.
As it is contratrend trading it increases the risk.
So if you ask me "Why did you take that trade?" the answer will be the same:
"In is in the High Zone/Low Zone"
Some days the estimates have more confidence than others - and if possible I'll indicate this.
I know my handicap is time -getting up early enough to get the pro-open analysis done.
I will track against $25,000 starting position.
------------
My "system" is an estimation trading method. I estimate the: RTH high
RTH low est range.
Rules include:
Waiting for the price to get into the HE or LE zones (which are 3 pts wide)
Not trading on narrow range days (est range < 12pts).
Always entering a stop-loss at a maximum of 5 pts
Never taking a trade without at least a 6 pts profit potential (6PPP).
Guidelines:
Check RR at 8:45am. Does it give a target within the stop-magnets? If yes don't take the trade.
Seriously consider not trading on Friday "crooks day"
If a resistance/support level level is challenge by an auto est level - consider that that R/S will be run.
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Abbreviations:
FP = First Point
HE = High end
SE = Second end CAR = close and reverse
NR = narrow range (<12pts for ES)
dir = direction of the day from HOD to LOD or vice versa
rng = range
est = estimate
est rng = estimated range of the day
midpt or mid = midpoint
Est mid = estimated midpoint of the day
HL diff = High Low diff (so this is different from the est rng)
Explanation:
Though I estimate the range for the day (est rng) and I estimate the midpoint of the day (est midpt) , the HL diff is not equal to the est rng because the HOD and LOD are estimated separately.
Lessons through contest period
2/14/2017
If you holding short in the o/n and it is moving downward in the pre-open sit tight for a profit
When you have two possible low estimates (e.g 2320.75 and 2319) and you go in at the former and it rises, take the profit on the first peak (+4.50) and wait to see if your lower estimate (2319) will be taken.
2/17/2017
If a resistance/support level level is challenge by an auto est level - consider that that R/S will be run.
Estimates were not quite ready soon enough. I was up at 5amCT equivalent and started prep work at 6amCT. not ready by 8:30amCT
"Estimated range = 11.25"
Initial default range was 11.25 points which I over-rode and set to 13.25
The dir=+1
and mid change score = +8
--system generated ---------
February 1, 2017
The estimated to open is 2281.00
We should be going up first
The first point is estimated at 2279.75
We have a sell near open signal
The estimated low end is 2269.00
The estimated main direction of the day is up
We are expecting a change in intraday direction
-----------------------------
Chart so far:
10:54 AM 2/1/2017
(green lines are HOD and LOD estimates)
Results
The midpoint was estimated at 2268.25 and actual was 2276.75 difference of 8.50
The range estimate was 13.25 and the actual was 16.75 a difference of 3.50
The FE was estimated to be FE=LE and the actual was FE=HE
The first trade was estimated to be DD up at 2282.25 or 2280.25 08:36
Today's FP was 2285.00 08:36
9:27 AM 2/2/2017
mid of est rng=2267.25
Est mid = 2270.25
H/L est 2274.75 , 2259.50
Diff=15.25
----other------
09:29 AM
February 2, 2017
The estimated to open is 2269.25
We should be going down first
The first point is estimated at 2270.50
We have a sell near open signal
The estimated low end is 2259.50
The estimated main direction of the day is flat or unclear
We are expecting a change in intraday direction
The range rule is for estimated an amended H or L estimate assuming you know one end (HOD or LOD) is in place.
So initial estimates are made (hopefully) before 8:30am. - shooting from a long distance.
Once the market opens price action can vary from your initial estimates and then with the new information (price action),
you may see that either the HOD or LOD is in place and estimate the second end (SE) with the range rule.
Range rule:
take FE and +- est rng (and +-1.5 for error of est)
eg. FE=LOD at 2267
+ est rng 14.75 and 14.75-1,5
==> 2281.75 to 2280.25
Off to the store and missed the low (2270.00 11:03) to exit trade 1.
Here is trade 2
temp3.png
+3 pts
----------stuff I typed while waiting for NT to load data!!----
12:12 PM 2/2/2017
waiting for the account info to reload.
Starbucks changed their gateway prg (no doubt improving it! -LOL) and now the line keeps dropping.
So I'm using my hotspot
I hit refresh data on NT and with my charts and over-loaded laptop that should be good for 15min!! not so LOL
oh well.
hoping the trade is OK - which luckily is sim today - due to some glitches.
add-on I heard NT say order filled (though I cancelled it -- we'll see what we got - like a xmas surprise!)
still loading....
still loading...
done
12:36 PM 2/2/2017
Trade 2 is closed out. Trading in and out leaving Trade 1 short open towards a LE.
10:28 AM 2/2/2017
Comments on trade 1
Having missed yesterday short trade I was keen not to miss again today.
I was quite upset with missing the trade yest - I needed to be more focused-effiecient with my time prior to open
With the cleaning lady in (=barking dog) I decided to work from Starbucks today.
I found it harder to concentrate, "newspaper" people talking "bone-head", old people banging their hands on the table and wacking their empty coffee cups when they talk- (Why do they do that??) etc. I find I pick up on other people's energy - fine it their are nice people not so fine with others.
Perhaps this in not the reason, but in any case trade 1 was very poor entry. If I had done the range rule at 8:45 when I should have I would have seen that the rule applied to the LE gave a value about 2280 area. As there is a stop-run est at 2279.50 it act like a magnet.
So I am nt suppose to enter withing 5 pts of the stop-run-magnet. 2279.50 - 5 = 2274.50, and, in hindsight the short entry was breaking this.
Second mistake: I have an DDauto default estimate which is automatically generated by the spreadsheet. It was:
DDAuto
Est
2277.50
2262.75
Leaving it (2277.50) alone- it was much closer to the 10:01 price and would have meant delaying going short.
Rule:
Check RR at 8:45am. Does it give a target within the stop-magnets? If yes don't take the trade.
