So let's say you just started writing a new strategy, and you're looking at the first backtest results. For those that have written successful systems, were there things in the results early on that let you know the strategy was promising? Or perhaps it surprised you when it was the one that finally worked? For the systems that didn't work, what caused you to give up on them? Did you give up because they lost too much money, or something else? How do you know that it's a dud vs maybe you just need to add more conditions to the strategy?
Basically I'm looking to know when a strategy just needs some tweaks vs when I need to rethink my entire approach. I have something that is profitable in backtesting, but I am unsure if I should refine it more or move on to real time testing.