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How are you scaling into charts trending up or down???
What I'm finding in my research and practice is that I can trade a day that oscillates oversold and overbought at their reversals easily on the 5 min chart. The signs are all there, and the entries are easy to spot with indicators.
That's not the problem though.
What I have trouble with is catching the trend.
So that you and I are on the same page I consider market days to be of two kinds. The market is either oscillating or it is trending.
Oscillation days are when computers running mild trading programs, and those computers are being triggered by indicators. They have a median behavior like they were all one, and it's very easy to figure out and profit on. Trending days is when there is some heavy bullish or bearish sentiment such as the central banks want to increase liquidity, or the Chinese markets are crashing.
Oscillation days have no bias except indicators. This is an uninspired, SECULAR market day.
Trending days have a SENTIMENTAL BIAS, and the trading is being done manually while computers are front running the order flow overblowing the actual SENTIMENTAL BIAS about the markets.
The market either has sentiments, or it is secular. I can trade the secular market easily, but trading I can't trade the sentimental trend days at all. I just can't find an entry. This is holding me back.
SOMEONE GIVE ME A CLUE. I catch on easily and quickly like flint spark on petroleum doused cotton tinder. Light my fire. Thanks.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
If the price you would have sold/bought in the range stops working, then you are probably starting the move for at least an intra-day trend and should no longer be looking for "oversold" and "overbought" as defined by the oscillators. In those cases, probably best to take those windows off the charts. i.e. once your range is breaking, start trading in direction of the break until a new range forms, or price returns back to your range zone.
One last note to think about: is a oscillation day really a day with no bias? Or sometimes is it a day with mixed bias, and it's just a question of who is has more money to be bullish and who has more money to be bearish? Sometimes its a none event, and sometimes its an existential tug of war to see who will be right and who's about to fold up and go home.
The majority of the market is traded by HFT algos. So when there is no bias on a day, there isn't anything for them to front run. The way I understand it, the prime function of HFT trading is front running orders based on order flow, and it works sort of like buying up the tickets to ball games just to sell them marked up out in the parking lot.
I have to assume that why there is not strong macro economic bias in the markets they run on indicators because they tend to behave according to indicators when they are not running on keywords in the news and economic reports.
In my experience it appears they find some kind of harmony together, and they begin trading in the mean range that you can see as they trade around the 34EMA like it were the middle median in the middle of the street like a symphony unit. I find myself trading the Phil Harmonic Orchestra as soon as I know what they are playing.
The trend days have macro economic bias for one reason or another, and the sell/buy programs kick in with extra pressure on the throttle. It's a silent song that is hidden from me until after it's formed the trend on my charts, so I have to keep an eye on the global markets and world biz news on CNBC in order to place which "song the Phil is playing," so I can get paired up to it.
I also suspect both from the above and several and other posts of yours, in other threads, that you're looking at trend-identification in terms of indicators. I'm not criticising that: it seems to work for some people. There is, however, another way to look at this, I think: simply following the principle of "adding to winning postions", in other words simply letting the result-so-far (rather than any indicator formation/pattern) in a trade determine whether or not you scale further in.
This next observation perhaps relates more to scaling out than to scaling in, but I tend to take small profits relatively quickly on half or two-thirds of my position-sizes, aiming to lock in a small profit and cover the costs of the remaining proportion, which will sometimes go on to catch a bigger trend. For me, this approach combines minimizing risk with minimizing anxiety/frustration over "lost opportunities". I wouldn't know how to make such determinations by depending on indicators, though.
Today I caught the trends on the /ES nicely in the early European sessions, and then in the US session. I guess I'm grasping this better now. The public confessional here on this forum helped to focus my skills in a way.
The trend was bearish all early morning until mid US session when fuel inventories were lower than expected. That sparked a bull rally in /CL, and /CL cause a bull rally in /ES.
When the fuel inventory came out, the trend turned from bearish to bullish. Both were very obvious and easy to spot, and I did great except for one scaling in and scaling out mistake, but I have a handle on that.
The 34EMA is like the harmony line in the market. That's what the symphony of HFT computers trade around for some reason like it was the road stripes down the middle of their road or like a median in the middle of the street which usually has trees growing in it or something.
The market bounces off of that 34EMA and trends up or down if it's a trend day. The market cuts back and forth opposite sides of that 34EMA if there's no bias in the markets, and the day is going to oscillate OB and OS.
I'v got a confluence here with your posts. According to my Bulkowksi's trading like strategy, I've got today at close a buying confirmation to catch a potential uptrend with a nice Risk/Reward ratio. I expect to see the price rising, at least, to 1989. But It's only my point of view and don't trade it if your system doesn't confirm any uptrend. Keep on what is working for you and give leftovers away.
Best Regards,
M.
PS : I'm French and so sorry to rip English language !
I believe we can get as high as 2050 between now and March Fed Rates Announcement which is on the third week of March. 1850 is said to be the low between now and then as well, and I feel comfortable with that but maybe lower than that.
There's no catalyst to go higher except maybe possibly if the Fed doesn't hike rates, and especially if they drop rates.
